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Rebuild Season - Good So Far and What's Next?

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Rebuild Season - Good So Far and What's Next?

Postby The Loveable Losers » Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:10 pm

14 team h2h keeper league, daily changes, 5x5 with k/9 instead of k's and c,1b,2b,3b,ss,3of,util,2sp,2rp,3p, 5bn and 2dl slots. We keep 6 players per year with no restrictions on number of years, no changes to draft, etc. We also have an up to 8 player prospect list which we can keep from year-to-year if the player stays under 130ab/50ip through early August. Finally, we can designate one of our prospects as a 'franchise player' before opening day each season and have that player protected for the following year's roster even if they go over the limit before early August. This franchise player must either have no previous major league ab/ip and/or be left off the team's opening day roster.

With that said, here's my current assets (keep in mind that a 1st round pick is the equivalent of a 7th round pick in a redraft):
Players (keeper or likely keeper possibilities in bold):

Player Note
Travis d'Arnaud NYM - C
Billy Butler Oak - 1B
Aaron Hill Ari - 2B,3B
Nick Castellanos Det - 3B
Elvis Andrus Tex - SS
Starling Marte Pit - OF
Jason Heyward StL - OF
Christian Yelich Mia - OF
Chris Owings Ari - 2B,SS
Stephen Vogt Oak - C,1B,OF
David Price Det - SP
Jake Peavy SF - SP
Joel Peralta LAD - RP
Sergio Romo SF - RP
Kevin Quackenbush SD - RP
Jordan Walden StL - RP
A.J. Ramos Mia - RP
José Fernández Mia - SP
Edward Mujica Bos - RP
Chad Qualls Hou - RP
Adam Ottavino Col - RP

Prospects (note that I have to get down to 8 guys before Opening Day but Tanaka and Pederson are pretty much locks for my roster...then it's just a question of whether I make a trade, roster Michael A. Taylor as well, or drop Danny Hultzen)
1. SP Braden Shipley (ETA 2016)
2. SS Tim Anderson (ETA 2016)
3. SP Kohl Stewart (ETA 2016)
4. SP Danny Hultzen (ETA 2016-2017)
5. 2B Dilson Herrera (ETA 2015)
6. 3B Maikel Franco (ETA 2015)
7. OF Michael A. Taylor (ETA 2015)
8. OF Joc Pederson (ETA 2015)
9. OF Manuel Margot (ETA 2017)
10. SP Touki Toussaint (ETA 2017-2018)
11. SP Masahiro Tanaka (ETA Now) - Must be called up before Opening Day

2016 Picks (again, 15 round draft that's the equivalent to rounds 7-21 in a redraft)
TLL 1st Round Pick
Dusty 1st Round Pick
TLL 2nd Round Pick
Sabos 2nd Round Pick
TLL 3rd Round Pick
TLL 4th Round Pick
TLL 5th Round Pick
Clutch 5th Round Pick
TLL 6th Round Pick
Dusty 6th Round Pick
TLL 8th Round Pick
Stone Cold 8th Round Pick
Fatkid 8th Round Pick
TLL 9th Round Pick
TLL 13th Round Pick

Prospect Picks
TLL 1st Round Prospect Pick
TLL 2nd Round Prospect Pick
TLL 3rd Round Prospect Pick
Clutch 3rd Round Prospect Pick
Last edited by The Loveable Losers on Tue Mar 24, 2015 9:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Rebuild Season - Good So Far and What's Next?

Postby The Loveable Losers » Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:15 pm

How I got here:

I got to this point by taking a slightly above average 2015 draft with a lot of aging and/or borderline keepers (Pujols, Holliday, Anibal Sanchez, Scott Kazmir, etc) and trading picks either for players or 2016 picks.

I dealt Pujols to take a chance on Joc Pederson's upside.
I let Holliday slip back into the draft to take a shot that Elvis Andrus takes the next step forward.
I traded Justin Upton for both a pick upgrade and Jose Fernandez.
I traded 4th round picks for both Starling Marte and Justin Heyward.
I traded a 1st round pick during the draft for Masahiro Tanaka who the other owner had protected from last year as his franchise player.
I traded some draft depth this year to move up to pick 1.3 and get Yelich.
Finally, I traded pretty much all of my picks that weren't already dealt for picks in 2016.
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Re: Rebuild Season - Good So Far and What's Next?

Postby The Loveable Losers » Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:21 pm

Moving Forward:

I'll do my best to compete this year, mainly by scouring the wire for closers with talent as well as hoping some of the high value MR arms I drafted step in to the closer role. Beyond that I'll take a non-standard approach, dump Wins for the most part and stay as close to the 30ip minimum as I can to maximize the value of my MR ratios (remember we have k/9 instead of k's to go along with era/whip so 3 of our 5 pitching cat's are ratio-based) and the top-end of my otherwise non-existent starting pitching, and hope for enough of a breakout from the top-half of my hitters that the lack of depth beyond them doesn't kill my hitting. It's far from ideal but for 2015 it's the best I've got.

For 2016 and beyond I'll be constantly looking to deal guys whose 2015 value rises above their 2016 and beyond value. Guys that lack upside but fall into the closer role for example. Guys like Plouffe or Butler if they manage to not completely suck. Tanaka if he comes out of the gate hot. I'll look primarily to deal for more pick upgrades as that's all I'd be likely to get in many of those cases but if any 2-1's or even 3-1's present themselves where I can deal some depth to another team for a significant upgrade to a keeper slot then I'll do that as well. Hopefully I can pull off some of that in-season and even if I can't there's a chance that if enough of my guys step up to the next level I could deal from that depth in the off-season to fill out other team's keeper lists.
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Re: Rebuild Season - Good So Far and What's Next?

Postby SuperDoodles » Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:59 pm

Can't speak much on the future happenings but will offer that I think you should go ahead and roster Taylor and add d'Arnaud to your potential keepers list. I like Plouffe but would like to see a backup there. Not a fan of Vogt, but only because he just wasn't getting ABs. If that changes this year I'll sign off. Ottavino and Qualls seem superfluous but, again, I want to caution, your league is a little more complex than I'm used to. Since it's a rebuilding year I thought I'd save some of the more obvious notes. Good luck

If you'd like to help:
viewtopic.php?t=490811
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Re: Rebuild Season - Good So Far and What's Next?

Postby The Loveable Losers » Mon Mar 23, 2015 4:20 pm

Ottavino and Qualls are a weird situation specific to this league. Because it's a h2h league and usually highly competitive (or at least with teams that unreasonably think that EVERY year is their year) closers tend to be highly valued. If one of those guys fell into the closer role before opening day then I stand to profit on that. I'll have to drop one or both of them before opening day to add Tanaka and Pederson from my minor league roster to the major league roster but until opening day I have those two roster slots with which I can speculate. Rather than just add Tanaka and Pederson now I figure I'd keep Ottavino and Qualls (or whoever else is looking good and could be in line for saves if an injury happens) on the roster just in case I get lucky and one of them hits. Anyone that gets the official word that they'll be getting saves in time for me to make a deal would get dealt for picks (usually they go for somewhere around a 6-8 round upgrade on the back end (ie a 6th-8th round pick in return for a 15th round pick) so it's worth taking the risk with those roster slots until opening day since there's no cost to me and closers are the most likely spot for a guy to go from midling value to high value during spring training.

As for your other comments I like to run a tight ship on roster slots usually so I rarely run with more than 1 bench offensive player - 2 max. Not sure if I want Taylor there unless he gets to 130ab's and is playing very well as there's room for playing for more draft value on closers or taking chances on possible breakout players in the meantime. The only cost there would be having to let Hultzen go to keep that slot open until Taylor hits 130ab's. I'm actually looking at another possible trade to get Micah Johnson for Danny Hultzen just because of our league rules though. If I can pull that off then I lose very little by gambling on Johnson and handing him the keys at second base this year. I can list him as my franchise prospect (as I don't have any other good options there), call him up from day 1, and then I can keep Hultzen as well as call Taylor up/send him down at will until he goes over 130ab.

I'd love it if d'Arnaud broke out to be keeper-worthy but this league has a low opinion of catchers as keepers so I'm not holding my breath that he'll be that good.

Plouffe is the best I could do at the back-end of the draft but I might actually manage to make a slight sell-out of next year and get Chase Headley and a 15th round pick for a 9th round pick from the owner of Kris Bryant as soon as Bryant gets called up. That would make me very happy as I think Headley could break out to be useful enough to help my team if it's making a run at sneaking in to a 6th playoff slot or bringing back decent picks right before the playoffs if not.
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Re: Rebuild Season - Good So Far and What's Next?

Postby B-Chad » Mon Mar 23, 2015 7:51 pm

I probably would refrain from burning a roster spot on Taylor and keep him stashed at the expense of Hultzen. Even when Hultzen was drafted -- prior to injury issues in the pros -- he was more of a high floor guy who should move quick. Pitching is deep enough I wouldn't bat an eyelash dumping him.
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Re: Rebuild Season - Good So Far and What's Next?

Postby The Loveable Losers » Mon Mar 23, 2015 9:07 pm

B-Chad wrote:I probably would refrain from burning a roster spot on Taylor and keep him stashed at the expense of Hultzen. Even when Hultzen was drafted -- prior to injury issues in the pros -- he was more of a high floor guy who should move quick. Pitching is deep enough I wouldn't bat an eyelash dumping him.


Yep, I'm trying to get Micah Johnson for Hultzen right now as well as trying to pick up Chase Headley from the same owner. Don't really want to spend too much of the picks I've built up but Headley could be in for a monster breakout and can't be worse than Plouffe. Micah Johnson would actually work as a franchise guy within our rules and with those stolen-base guys you never know when one of them might accidentally get on base at a higher than expected clip (see Altuve, Jose 2014) and get more steals than they would have otherwise gotten. At worst Micah's younger than Aaron Hill and gives me some actual upside at the position and again, given the fact that none of my other guys are likely to be franchise options Micah's better than wasting the tag altogether on some guy that doesn't even sniff the majors this year. If I can't pull off a deal like that I think you're right - Hultzen's worth less than the roster flexibility would be.

EDIT: Micah for Hultzen's not happening so it looks like it's sell Hultzen for something (bucket of balls, 1 round pick upgrade, whatever) or possibly just drop him.
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Re: Rebuild Season - Good So Far and What's Next?

Postby MPappadato » Mon Mar 23, 2015 10:35 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:How I got here:

I got to this point by taking a slightly above average 2015 draft with a lot of aging and/or borderline keepers (Pujols, Holliday, Anibal Sanchez, Scott Kazmir, etc) and trading picks either for players or 2016 picks.

I dealt Pujols to take a chance on Joc Pederson's upside.
I let Holliday slip back into the draft to take a shot that Elvis Andrus takes the next step forward.
I traded Justin Upton for both a pick upgrade and Jose Fernandez.
I traded 4th round picks for both Starling Marte and Justin Heyward.
I traded a 1st round pick during the draft for Masahiro Tanaka who the other owner had protected from last year as his franchise player.
I traded some draft depth this year to move up to pick 1.3 and get Yelich.
Finally, I traded pretty much all of my picks that weren't already dealt for picks in 2016.


Trying to respond in bunches here- your post is meaty!

I like all of this- especially upton for Fernandez and the pick for Tanaka. While I'm bearish on Andrus, the cost wasn't much. It seems like you have a plan and are executing well. This is so important in complex leagues. So many people waste time/value by waffling between strategies.
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Re: Rebuild Season - Good So Far and What's Next?

Postby MPappadato » Mon Mar 23, 2015 10:39 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:
Player Note
Travis d'Arnaud NYM - C
Billy Butler Oak - 1B
Aaron Hill Ari - 2B,3B
Trevor Plouffe Min - 3B
Elvis Andrus Tex - SS
Starling Marte Pit - OF
Jason Heyward StL - OF
Christian Yelich Mia - OF
Chris Owings Ari - 2B,SS
Stephen Vogt Oak - C,1B,OF
David Price Det - SP
Jake Peavy SF - SP
Joel Peralta LAD - RP
Sergio Romo SF - RP
Kevin Quackenbush SD - RP
Jordan Walden StL - RP
A.J. Ramos Mia - RP
José Fernández Mia - SP
Edward Mujica Bos - RP
Chad Qualls Hou - RP
Adam Ottavino Col - RP

Prospects (note that I have to get down to 8 guys before Opening Day but Tanaka and Pederson are pretty much locks for my roster...then it's just a question of whether I make a trade, roster Michael A. Taylor as well, or drop Danny Hultzen)
1. SP Braden Shipley (ETA 2016)
2. SS Tim Anderson (ETA 2016)
3. SP Kohl Stewart (ETA 2016)
4. SP Danny Hultzen (ETA 2016-2017)
5. 2B Dilson Herrera (ETA 2015)
6. 3B Maikel Franco (ETA 2015)
7. OF Michael A. Taylor (ETA 2015)
8. OF Joc Pederson (ETA 2015)
9. OF Manuel Margot (ETA 2017)
10. SP Touki Toussaint (ETA 2017-2018)
11. SP Masahiro Tanaka (ETA Now) - Must be called up before Opening Day

2016 Picks (again, 15 round draft that's the equivalent to rounds 7-21 in a redraft)
TLL 1st Round Pick
Dusty 1st Round Pick
TLL 2nd Round Pick
Sabos 2nd Round Pick
TLL 3rd Round Pick
TLL 4th Round Pick
TLL 5th Round Pick
Clutch 5th Round Pick
TLL 6th Round Pick
Dusty 6th Round Pick
TLL 8th Round Pick
Stone Cold 8th Round Pick
Fatkid 8th Round Pick
TLL 9th Round Pick
TLL 13th Round Pick

Prospect Picks
TLL 1st Round Prospect Pick
TLL 2nd Round Prospect Pick
TLL 3rd Round Prospect Pick
Clutch 3rd Round Prospect Pick



I think you are keeping the right guys, and I don't think it's particularly close. I'll echo the other poster that I wouldn't worry about Hultzen one way or another.

One thing that can happen in these type of leagues is over hoarding of draft picks. What happens is you get a ton of picks devoted in one year when the talent pool might not warrant it. You are right to keep wheeling and dealing- the Tanaka deal shows you don't just fall in love with picks or the idea of something and can actually go get a team. Keep at it- I'd love to see this roster in 3 years.
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Re: Rebuild Season - Good So Far and What's Next?

Postby The Loveable Losers » Tue Mar 24, 2015 9:18 am

MPappadato wrote:One thing that can happen in these type of leagues is over hoarding of draft picks. What happens is you get a ton of picks devoted in one year when the talent pool might not warrant it.


This is very important to remember. Personally, if I went in to next year's draft with the picks that I have right now then I've probably done something wrong. The key part is to look at all your assets, from the team MVP to that last FAAB dollar, as currency. Valuations, especially in a league with as many rules as this one, constantly fluctuate as people gain new understanding of how those rules interact, people's short-term and long-term goals change, and the assets themselves (especially with prospects) change.

I came into this past draft season with a slightly above average draft. I think I had 12 picks in the first 10 rounds with 2 firsts and 2 fourths. I ended up making only one pick in the first 10 rounds. I may not do that much next year but the more picks I can compile the more opportunities I have to upgrade keepers, prospects, or failing those just pad future drafts. There's also the chance that everything breaks right and this team is competitive. That much extra draft value makes it much easier to deal for other team's spare parts if they fall out of contention.

No one's player analysis is so incredibly good that they'd want to have the draft I listed above. That's too many eggs in the basket of a single season. But it's definitely much easier to have the picks and be willing to deal them than to not have them and be trying to get them. :) And absolute worst-case if I do everything wrong is that I have some good young keepers for next year and a ridiculous draft, so there's that. ;)
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