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2014 early season illusions and realities

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2014 early season illusions and realities

Postby NikkiSixx » Tue Apr 08, 2014 3:24 pm

Mark Trumbo's hot start - Illusion
Has Mark Trumbo taken a step forward in his game at age 28? Is he becoming more than just a 1 dimensional power hitter? My forecast is no, he is not breaking out and becoming more than just a power hitter. His hot start is nice, but he is a HUGE sell high for me (if I owned him). He's swinging the bat well right now, and after the first week of the season he is the #1 overall fantasy player. I'm not trying to rain on the parade of Trumbo owners, but 3 of those 5 home runs came in Coors Field. It looks to me that Trumbo was in the right place at the right time as he got hot just heading into his 3 game series in Colorado. I'm not gonna change my .250 average, 30 HR, 95 RBI projection on him just yet.

Prince Fielder's underwhelming performance - Reality
Before I start my paragraph, I'm going to say that Prince Fielder will be a good player this year, although probably not as good as the price you paid for him. The Detroit Tigers were smart to abandon ship on Prince Fielder by trading him for the well rounded Ian Kinsler... Even if they had to eat 30 million dollars of his contract just to get rid of him. Moving Fielder to Arlington might help him in the short term, but players of his size don't historically have successful seasons after the age of 30, and 30 is coming up for him in just another month. Don't get me wrong, Fielder will be a fine player this year and should be able to replicate his 25 HR, 100 RBI season from last year, but he will NOT bounce back to the player he was in Milwuakee. Many of you will disagree with me on this, but consider it my bold early season prediction. Fielder has been durable for his career, but I can see him struggling with injuries as he gets older. Expect more of the 2013 Prince Fielder, and expect a steady decline each year. If I was a keeper league owner of Prince, I would sell him while you still can get a decent return for him.

Bryce Harper's struggles - Illusion
I'm guilty of hopping on the Bryce Harper hype train as many of us have been. You had to overpay for Bryce Harper this year to own him, by spending a late first, early second round price tag on him even though he hasn't returned more than a 6th or 7th round value in his first 2 seasons. It's only a week into the season and some owners might already be kicking themselves by drooling over the upside rather than taking a proven veteran... He does play in a pitchers park, and his spot in the lineup is shuffling every single day. He has already been given a day of rest to "clear his head" and speaking of his head, he did suffer a pretty hard blow to his dome while sliding into second base on opening day that gave the Nats a huge concussion scare. He is striking out more often than not and hasn't walked since his first at bat of the season. The fastballs in the zone that he should be crushing into the gap or over the right-centerfield wall he is whiffing at or fouling off. He isn't at all locked in right now.... But have no fear, Bryce will persevere. Pitchers aren't afraid to pitch to him right now, which means he will be seeing more and more fastballs into the zone. and he won't be missing them for much longer. The first week has been rough but a hot streak is right around the corner. and with a hot streak comes increased confidence. And September of 2012, and April of 2013 show what a healthy and confident Bryce Harper is capable of, and that's only scratching the surface of his sky high potential. Don't sell Bryce Harper out of frustration, the good times will soon be here.

Justin Verlander falling out of the elite - Reality
I like Justin Verlander and would be happy to own him this year, but he is no longer the Tigers ace. I would much rather own Scherzer this year, and possibly even Anibal Sanchez. Verlander will be better than he was last season, but for those of you that drafted him hoping he will return to Kershaw status from 2011 and 2012 will be left disappointed. His BB/K ratio will be much better than what it is right now, and he might even even get back up to a K per inning. But we saw his worst season since he officially broke out in 2009 and you have to wonder if the large innings total is finally catching up with him. His 3692 pitches thrown last year lead the majors, and that was his lowest total in 5 years... That's not even including the postseason. Verlander is still a fine pitcher to own right now, but I would trust him more as a #2 than I would as a guy to anchor my staff.

Ryan Braun needs PED's to be good - Illusion
Worried about Ryan Braun's slow start after his suspension? Don't be. Ok you can be worried, but only because he can't feel his thumb. It would probably benefit Braun in the long run if he just sat on the DL for 15 days. Pedroia played fine with a messed up thumb last year, but it pretty much cut his HR total in half. Don't hit the panic button just yet with Braun though, I'm not so convinced that he is going to fall off from being a top hitter yet. GIve his thumb time to heal, and give him more than just a weeks worth of at bats before making your final decision on him. I think he still has .300, 30 homers in him, and he is still stealing bases, so a first round return is in store for Braun owners IF his thumb can heal properly.

Freddie Freeman's low RBI total - Reality
Freddie Freeman is a very good hitter, and he finished 4th in RBI last year while playing for the Braves. He is hitting the ball well again to start the season, so why are his only 2 RBI off solo homers where he hit himself in? Well that's because the Braves lineup is atrocious outside of Freeman, and pitchers are starting to pitch around him. The Braves offense wasn't so great last year either, but when you hit .443 with runners in scoring position like Freeman did in 2013, then 109 RBI doesn't seem so farfetched (even in a poor offense). More realistically, Freeman will be lucky to hit 90 RBI this year, and that isn't his fault. I would probably expect a .295 average, 25 HR, 85 RBI season, with maybe 75 runs. A fine season, but the low RBI total is the reality of owning a good player on a bad offense.



You can't judge anybody off of one week, I know that. However, these are things I feel comfortable saying early on. I'm sure I will get a good dose of posters telling me how small the sample size is and how impossible it is to judge these guys on April 8th of a 6 month season. Well I'm not just looking the first week of the season alone. A lot of factors are going into why I am saying what I'm saying, and I believe all the things I just said to be true. So take it as you will, hopefully this can help some of you by hearing a 2nd opinion about your early season questions.
Last edited by NikkiSixx on Thu Apr 10, 2014 10:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2014 early season illusions and realities

Postby GiantsFan14 » Tue Apr 08, 2014 3:33 pm

Most of these look about right, but I think Trumbo moving to the NL and playing half his games in Arizona means very good things for him.
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Re: 2014 early season illusions and realities

Postby NikkiSixx » Tue Apr 08, 2014 3:49 pm

GiantsFan14 wrote:Most of these look about right, but I think Trumbo moving to the NL and playing half his games in Arizona means very good things for him.

I wouldn't be shocked to see him hit a few more home runs than 30, but I expect a .250ish average from him.
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Re: 2014 early season illusions and realities

Postby Izenhart » Tue Apr 08, 2014 4:45 pm

I think Trumbo was pretty much a lock for 40 dingers, now I'm thinking he's got a shot at 45-50. I'm buying into him while others aren't I've owned the guy the last two years and I've seen hot streaks like this before, I think two years ago he was batting .300 into June. His ceiling is going to be this year. Everything just seems right for him, age, new league, ballpark, lineup and skill curve. I have NO idea what his BA will end up being but I'd lean the better side of .250 for this year anyway.

Agree with the rest of you analysis. I picked Harper over Fielder for a reason. Both look like garbage right now but the young phenom won't be held down for long.

Verlander is toast I agree, he had those two big years but before the MVP year he was kinda meh. Looks like he's back to his meh ways. Braun worries me though, his numbers after the injury last year were bad, and I had a similar injury when I hurt my arm when I was young, all I felt were tingles and I could not get any power behind my swing without getting into some really bad habits. I don't think Braun will be right at all this year. i hope I'm wrong though, I can't seem to trade the guy for a bag of nuts right now.
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Re: 2014 early season illusions and realities

Postby NikkiSixx » Tue Apr 08, 2014 5:00 pm

I figured Trumbo would be the one that gets the most people disagreeing with me. It is REALLY easy to love a guy when he is this hot. Of all the guys on hot streaks I think Trumbo is the one that is most likely to come crashing down to earth. Perhaps this years Justin Upton (12 HR in april last year, sucked the rest of the way). I don't think Trumbo will suck, but I don't think he is gonna break out and be any better than the last 3 years with the Angels either.

I don't project anybody for 40 homers anymore... But Trumbo could come close. I would still sell high on him right now, you will get the best return for him RIGHT NOW fresh off of his trip to Coors Field. As much as some of you may love Trumbo, it would benefit your season more to sell high on him. One of the worst things you can do as a fantasy owner is become attached to a player IMO. Knowing that he gets incredibly streaky means that there is a good chance that there will be more bad days than good coming ahead. And the .250 average comes along with the 27% K% the last couple of seasons... If he is your starting 1B than maybe try and get a guy like Encarnacion in return. If he is your OF than maybe try getting a guy like Adam Jones in return. If he is your starting OF and you REALLY need the power then maybe go for Jose Bautista. Maybe you need pitching and you can get an ace in return.

It wouldn't hurt to just hold on to Trumbo either though... But in my opinion (which isn't always right, just like everyone else) is that you should sell high and get the best return you can for him before he has a couple 0-4 games with 2 or 3 K's. If you just hold on to him you will still get solid stats, don't get me wrong. But if you have a chance at getting even better stats, then why wouldn't you?
Last edited by NikkiSixx on Sun Apr 13, 2014 1:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2014 early season illusions and realities

Postby GiantsFan14 » Tue Apr 08, 2014 5:06 pm

I liked Trumbo before the season simply due to where he moved to. His performance so far is just validating my expectations. Obviously he's not as good as this, but I think he's one of a very few guys that you can project around 40 bombs this year.

Also I don't think anyone is suggesting not to take Bautista or EE for him. Don't think you're gonna find many people willing to buy that high though.

PS- I don't own him in any leagues.
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Re: 2014 early season illusions and realities

Postby Izenhart » Tue Apr 08, 2014 5:09 pm

Well in Trumbo's case the only leagues I have him in I am tanking BA. So hot or cold I'm living and dying with him. Belt is the guy I'd be more inclined to trade right now.
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Re: 2014 early season illusions and realities

Postby GiantsFan14 » Tue Apr 08, 2014 5:10 pm

Izenhart wrote:Well in Trumbo's case the only leagues I have him in I am tanking BA. So hot or cold I'm living and dying with him. Belt is the guy I'd be more inclined to trade right now.


Belt gonna hit 50 bombs easy.
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Re: 2014 early season illusions and realities

Postby TheTrith » Tue Apr 08, 2014 5:15 pm

Brandon Belt Reality
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Re: 2014 early season illusions and realities

Postby GiantsFan14 » Tue Apr 08, 2014 5:21 pm

TheTrith wrote:Brandon Belt Reality


Preach.
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