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Mike Olt, post-hype sleeper?

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Mike Olt, post-hype sleeper?

Postby mkultra » Thu Mar 27, 2014 3:56 pm

Olt was a notable Rangers prospect and showed some promise as a rookie in 2010, then fell off the map, then got hurt, then got even worse.

He made the opening day roster for the Cubs thanks to a strong spring (.275 with 5 HR and 15RBI in 15 games), and is contending for a starting 3B job. If he lands it, is he mixed-league worthy?
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Re: Mike Olt, post-hype sleeper?

Postby hot4tx » Thu Mar 27, 2014 4:43 pm

There's a lot of upside guys at 3B this year in mixed leagues. Maybe in deeper leagues he's a guy to grab, but in most 12-teamers I'd personally take a watch and wait approach with him. He was definitely a work in progress, but talented back with the Rangers. Now that he can see again he definitely could be headed for a break-out year.
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Re: Mike Olt, post-hype sleeper?

Postby Niffoc4 » Fri Mar 28, 2014 9:55 am

hot4tx wrote:There's a lot of upside guys at 3B this year in mixed leagues. Maybe in deeper leagues he's a guy to grab, but in most 12-teamers I'd personally take a watch and wait approach with him. He was definitely a work in progress, but talented back with the Rangers. Now that he can see again he definitely could be headed for a break-out year.
+1

I am interested in him in my 11 team NL-Only, and larger mixed leagues, but in 12 team mixed, watch and wait seems like the right approach.

I think he has solid power upside, but I have my doubts on batting average.
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Re: Mike Olt, post-hype sleeper?

Postby kab21 » Fri Mar 28, 2014 10:31 am

The problem is that he's probably hitting .250 with 0 SB's. He's going to need to hit 30+ HR's to be interesting in all but the deepest leagues.
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Re: Mike Olt, post-hype sleeper?

Postby Izenhart » Fri Mar 28, 2014 10:48 am

kab21 wrote:The problem is that he's probably hitting .250 with 0 SB's. He's going to need to hit 30+ HR's to be interesting in all but the deepest leagues.


Also, middle of the lineup or not, the Cubs won't produce many runs around him either. He's a .260 career minor league hitter with marginal power. I never really understood any of the hype surrounding this guy. I'd pencil him in for 20 HR (or less) and doubt he hits well enough to get 500 ABs. If he ever gets hot sure I'd give him a shot if I was stuck staring at David Freese occupying my 3B slot.
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Re: Mike Olt, post-hype sleeper?

Postby hot4tx » Fri Mar 28, 2014 12:49 pm

Olt's had BA issues but he's had very good ISOs at every stop except the Cubs last year (when supposedly the vision problems got him). I've watched him hit a couple balls out of the stadium there in Frisco, so beyond just crunching minor league numbers I can say the guy's got some power. I think there's a lot of upside there, but these higher K guys don't have a great track record of becoming MLB stars. So in a lot of leagues he may not be worth a roster spot to open the season.
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Re: Mike Olt, post-hype sleeper?

Postby kab21 » Fri Mar 28, 2014 8:19 pm

hot4tx wrote:Olt's had BA issues but he's had very good ISOs at every stop except the Cubs last year (when supposedly the vision problems got him). I've watched him hit a couple balls out of the stadium there in Frisco, so beyond just crunching minor league numbers I can say the guy's got some power. I think there's a lot of upside there, but these higher K guys don't have a great track record of becoming MLB stars. So in a lot of leagues he may not be worth a roster spot to open the season.


But what fantasy upside is there? This isn't about crunching MiLB numbers. .250 with 0 SB's isn't very interesting unless he's hitting 30+ HR's. Most likely he's a 15-25 HR guy. Yawn.
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Re: Mike Olt, post-hype sleeper?

Postby exm » Sat Mar 29, 2014 12:19 pm

kab21 wrote:
hot4tx wrote:Olt's had BA issues but he's had very good ISOs at every stop except the Cubs last year (when supposedly the vision problems got him). I've watched him hit a couple balls out of the stadium there in Frisco, so beyond just crunching minor league numbers I can say the guy's got some power. I think there's a lot of upside there, but these higher K guys don't have a great track record of becoming MLB stars. So in a lot of leagues he may not be worth a roster spot to open the season.


But what fantasy upside is there? This isn't about crunching MiLB numbers. .250 with 0 SB's isn't very interesting unless he's hitting 30+ HR's. Most likely he's a 15-25 HR guy. Yawn.


.250 with 20HR on 3B is not too bad.
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Re: Mike Olt, post-hype sleeper?

Postby Niffoc4 » Mon Mar 31, 2014 12:59 pm

It's all about league-size. If Matt Dominguez wasn't useful in your league (or the NL equivalent), then Olt likely won't have an impact. But if you're in a deep-mixed league, or NL-Only league, then he could put together a very useful season.

No one is saying that he has the potential to be a first round pick next year in 12-team mixed leagues. But in my NL-Only auction, I'd be happy getting him for under $10, knowing he could earn me a $5 profit or more.
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