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sinicalypse wrote:greetings gents and a happy fantasy new year to you and yours!
my league is now entering it's third year and i successfully came back from crashing and burning (dead last) in year 1 to technically having the beastmode team peaking at 126/130pts and ruling the league with an iron fist.... until my nemesis was gifted 1pt between the end of the last night of the season and the next day to tie me for a co-championship (and complete my epic collapse in the eyes of many), so technically my fantasy nemesis is a back-to-back champion and undefeated in my league. i still think i've got the best chance to take him out.
after 4 keepers last year we've gone up to keeping 8 guys for this year, and i'm pretty sure the first 6 are no-brainers, but it's the last 2 that are tricky.... so allow me to point out that it's a standard 11-13 team 5x5 roto league with standard stats and rah rah rah
c - (i dont think i have one. it was chooch ruiz)
1b - mark trumbo...
2b - jason kipnis...
ss- jean segura....
3b - manny machado
OF - andrew mccutchen...
OF - yasiel puig ...
OF - domonic brown
util/2b/3b - brett lawrie
util/OF - avisail garcia
and i've also got neil walker and andrelton simmons but yeah who cares about them. now here's where it gets fun (and tragic in the case of matt harvey and what could've been)
SP - felix hernandez..
SP - yu darvish...
SP - jose fernandez...
SP - gerrit cole
SP - mike minor
SP - shelby miller
RP - jim johnson
RP - glen perkins
RP - koji uehara
RP - rafael soriano
DL/SP - matt harvey (not playing this year, even tho one idealistic dude told me that i should keep him anyways for a stashjob..... just no, i'm going to keep one of the cole/minor/miller trio and take my chances re-drafting harvey for the stashjob)
so yeah basically the 6 easiest keepers in the history of man are offensively mccutchen/kipnis/puig and then pitchingly felix/darvish/fernandez.....then it gets tricky. ideally i wanna go with a 4/4 split, so do i hedge my bets that jean segura is going to repeat his awesome-for-a-SS #s this year, or maybe improve on them? or do i remember that he pretty much hit the wall by august and slowed down to a crawl and was one of those guys dogging it that i couldn't cut cuz of keepers but he allowed me to get dragged down to a mere 111/130pts and get tied for the championship? or hell, do i bet that jonathan villar can basically be a poor man's segura complete with the 10-15HR bat? i'm a big trumbo guy even tho he hits .230 thanks to his propensity to be an all-world ~.290/27/75 guy in the first half but then a .182/7/20 guy in the 2nd half. in this post-PED era having a solid 30/+ HR bat is worthwhile, and even tho that .234 sucks the guy scored 80 runs, hit 30+ HR, and drove in ~100 runs. and seeing as i'm keeping mccutchen/kipnis/puig those are all hybrid power/speed guys who prolly won't escape the 20s for HRs or even drive in 100, but that's offset by them stealing 20+ bases and etc etc.
and then pitching wise, it's basically down to mike minor shelby miller and gerrit cole. i like to think that we basically know what mike minor is... he's been the guy that we saw last year since the 2nd half of the 2012 season, and yeah ~200 innings of 3.24/1.09 with ~181k and those ~15 wins or whatever? damn solid. shelby miller was !!!!! but eventually came back to earth and arguably hit a wall before being shut down by the end of the season, let alone michael wacha wacha stealing his rookie thunder by the end of the year / playoffs. and then there's gerrit cole, who certainly is the most prospecty of the 3 (as he was a top5-10 prospect guy in all of the leading publications) and even tho he started off having a ~3.80 ERA after his first ~5-8 starts, he ended up 3.22/1.07 or whatever with 100K in ~117IP and then he was pretty darn good in the playoffs (0.63 WHIP and a sub-3 ERA, and considering he gave up 2HR in those 11IP that = room to improve) so i like to think that gerrit has the most upside, but with only 117IP and the 11IP in the playoffs he has the smallest sample size.
but then again, gerrit was only in the minor leagues in 2012, ascending through the ranks rather horrorshow and then BOOM after a partial 2013 season in the minors he was called up and delivered. so i think he's easily the most tantalizing prospect of the 3 and prolly the clubhouse leader to be kept, but then again do i want to risk losing the consistency of mike minor or the potential of shelby miller (who is being treated like chopped liver here, cuz keep in mind i think he has upside that could be just as high as gerrit cole as you might remember he spent most of the season with a 2.somethign ERA as he just kept on going out there and quietly pitching very well, not quite jose fernandez good but then again who is really?)
and then of course, i could say screw those 3 pitchers and keep 5 hitters (allowing me to keep segura AND trumbo, unless you're a domonic brown guy or something) or likewise i could just keep the three hitters and then go with 5 pitchers. choices and decisions / politics and religions, eh?
so yeah guys, sorry about my blabbosity but i tend to have thoughts and i have the boundless audacity to share them longform in this post-twitertarian 140chars-or-less society that we live in, so if anyone wants to give me their thoughts on this (i have 5 days til i gotta declare keepers, with trumbo and gerrit cole being tentatively picked with the obvious-6) just drop a link to any thread/s you have and i'll be sure to come over and give you some thoughtful analysis. hell, i technically need a team or two for my fantasy league so if you read this and think "hey this guy knows his stuff, i bet he'd be a good challenge to take on" just drop me a line here or on efnet IRC as emessiah or at email@example.com and i can hook you up with the league. but do it soon (posting this 1:44am ET on sunday march 16th) cuz i gotta do the supplemental keeper draft ASAP which means i need to add teams quick and oh yeah, supplemental keeper draft = when new teams come into the league i just dont stick them with a non-returning team that stopped playing in may or june or something, i take all of the players from the non-returning teams and throw them in a pool, make a list of those players, e-mail them to the new managers/teams and have them rank them from 1-25 or whatever.... then i manually determine a snaking draft order and assign the players per their rankings just like yahoo does an autopick draft. then once every new team has 8 keepers, i assign them and BLAM, we're off and running for the regular draft and thus the season.
heck, here's the league >> http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1/42122/ >> and keep in mind that migcab will be in the supplemental draft! get in while the getting's good.
# sir talkstoomuch
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