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The Kershaw Effect

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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby West » Sun Mar 23, 2014 12:43 pm

Since all my drafts are over I'd like to throw out my SP lineup that I think can give you a top 3 finish in all the pitching cats and still have plenty of room for offense. Based on Yahoo ADPs, with slight adjustments for what I have seen in more competitive leagues (ie moving Gray up from his 14th round ADP to 12th) :

Kershaw (1)
Teheran (9)
Gray (12)
Cashner (13)
Tillman (18)
Ross (20)

My approach allows you to draft 7 straight offensive players from rounds 2-8 (as opposed to only 5 offensive players with the other approach in rounds 3, 4, 6, 7, 8), with rounds 10, 11 and 14 set aside for getting 3 closers, or one elite closer in round 8, followed by two more in the middle rounds. I would contrast this lineup with what others have recommended.

For reference:

The Artful Dodger wrote:I would pair Kershaw with an ace in either Round 2 or 3 and then one of Cole, Shields, Cain as my #3 in Round 6-7. IMO, there's no point in taking Kershaw without building a top-tier fantasy rotation.

Kershaw (1)
Darvish (2) or Wainwright (2/3)
Cole/Shields/Cain (5)

J35J wrote:Which is what is meant by backing up your Kershaw pick with other top picks. Kershaw, Price and Grienke are 3 of the top 15 SP on the board. I don't necessarily think anyone is saying you have to use your first 2 picks on starters if you take Kershaw but just that you make sure you get a couple other top end starters...like Price/Grienke....

Kershaw (1)
Price (4)
Greinke (5)

These are interesting strategies as well...It will be interesting to see which one plays out better in terms of overall rotisserie numbers.
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby Garry26 » Sun Mar 23, 2014 2:02 pm

Well if you're drafting last in a snake draft, you would get another pick immediately so the affect would be minimized, but Kershaw probably wouldn't be available by the 12th pick. That said, in my 4 Yahoo leagues this year, he went 3rd, 3rd, 4rth, and 5th picks. In 2013 he was going early in the 2nd round so it was a different story.

The main thing is that you will miss out on a top stud hitter. He's going early so you'd probably miss out on McCutchen, CarGo, Goldy, Davis....

If you're drafting 1-2, I'd skip him because the top 2 hitters are just too good to pass up for Kershaw.
If you're drafting 3-5 and you must have him, I suggest grabbing hitters in rounds 2 and 3. A 1B definitely in Rnd 2.
If you're drafting 6+ you probably won't get him. Especially if you're drafting 7+, but if he's available, do the same as I mentioned above.

What I really suggest is this:
Darvish is going in Rnd 2 and Strausburg in Rnd 3. Straus was going in Rnd 1 in 2013...
Why not grab one of those and keep your 1st Round hitting stud instead?
I love mock drafts.
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby West » Sun Mar 23, 2014 2:13 pm

Garry26 wrote:Well if you're drafting last in a snake draft, you would get another pick immediately so the affect would be minimized, but Kershaw probably wouldn't be available by the 12th pick. That said, in my 4 Yahoo leagues this year, he went 3rd, 3rd, 4rth, and 5th picks. In 2013 he was going early in the 2nd round so it was a different story.

The main thing is that you will miss out on a top stud hitter. He's going early so you'd probably miss out on McCutchen, CarGo, Goldy, Davis....

If you're drafting 1-2, I'd skip him because the top 2 hitters are just too good to pass up for Kershaw.
If you're drafting 3-5 and you must have him, I suggest grabbing hitters in rounds 2 and 3. A 1B definitely in Rnd 2.
If you're drafting 6+ you probably won't get him. Especially if you're drafting 7+, but if he's available, do the same as I mentioned above.

What I really suggest is this:
Darvish is going in Rnd 2 and Strausburg in Rnd 3. Straus was going in Rnd 1 in 2013...
Why not grab one of those and keep your 1st Round hitting stud instead?


I see nothing wrong with your reasoning but if you read the thread at all, we basically covered this. Most people here, myself included, would go for hitting over pitching in the first round regardless of draft position.
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby CBMGreatOne » Sun Mar 23, 2014 2:30 pm

I can't read all of these posts, but I have read the first 4 pages and I've gotten the general gist of both sides of the argument.

I have to say that, for the most part, though I see the merit of going all in on pitching if you take Kershaw, I tend much more to the Nikki Six side of the argument.

The fallacy I'm seeing is that people are implying that Kershaw, by himself, can't have a profound impact on your pitching stats. If you don't take another ace, you won't win the pitching categories, so you've essentially wasted a first round pick. This is complete nonsense.

Whether the rest of your staff would get all 4s in pitching, but with Kershaw now you get all 7s, or the rest of your staff would get 9s except with Kershaw you get 12s, the net benefit is the same.

What taking Kershaw does is free you up to be able to deprioritize pitching for the remainder of the draft, knowing that even if you are budget conscious about the remaining pitchers you take, if you hit on a couple of your mid to late round guys, you will still have a good staff.

Who is to say my offense anchored by my 2nd through 7th round picks won't be as good as someone's anchored by their 1st, 3rd, 5th, and 6th round picks?

I'll throw in another somewhat useless anecdote of my own. I won a league about 4 years ago by spending like 48/260 of my auction dollars on Roy Halladay, but then not spending more than 10 dollars on any other pitchers. The dynamics of auction vs snake change this scenario a little bit from some of the others I've seen described, but the point is still the same.

You don't have to win the pitching categories, you just have to be competitive in all categories. Kershaw is (hypothetically) going to help you compete in all of the pitching categories for the entire season. One could even argue that if you get really lucky with your other pitchers, you can actually take it too far. Suppose your staff would have been able to get 10s and 11s even without Kershaw because you also got Felix Hernandez, Madison Bumgarner, Zach Greinke types. Then you're not maximizing what Kershaw could have done for you without the help of 2/3 other aces.

Bottom line, Kershaw, assuming health and no major decline, is going to have a great benefit on your pitching stats, whether taking you from mediocre to slightly above average or from slightly above average to terrific. There's no reason to think that the latter has more of a net benefit to your team's standing than the former.

And of course, if you completely bomb the rest of your draft as far as pitching goes, he might not help you, but that goes for any player at any position.
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby J35J » Sun Mar 23, 2014 2:38 pm

West wrote:Kershaw (1)
Teheran (9)
Gray (12)
Cashner (13)
Tillman (18)
Ross (20)


Aside from Kershaw, you really are only "hoping" these guys pan out...they are still relative unknowns as far as what they can give you consistently over 200 innings. No way you are guaranteed top 3 with these guys. First off you'd have to hope they all pan out. Second off, it wouldn't be tough at all for half the league to have better pitching than this. One team could have Strausburg, Price, Grienke and others...another team could have Darvish, Sale, Bailey and others...another could have Lee, Fernandez, Gio and others, another could have Waino, Bumgarner, Cole and others....another could have Scherzer, Verlander, Zimmerman, Hamels and others... just plenty of possibilities that could put you middle of the pack or lower.
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby NikkiSixx » Sun Mar 23, 2014 3:30 pm

J35J wrote:
West wrote:Kershaw (1)
Teheran (9)
Gray (12)
Cashner (13)
Tillman (18)
Ross (20)


Aside from Kershaw, you really are only "hoping" these guys pan out...they are still relative unknowns as far as what they can give you consistently over 200 innings. No way you are guaranteed top 3 with these guys. First off you'd have to hope they all pan out. Second off, it wouldn't be tough at all for half the league to have better pitching than this. One team could have Strausburg, Price, Grienke and others...another team could have Darvish, Sale, Bailey and others...another could have Lee, Fernandez, Gio and others, another could have Waino, Bumgarner, Cole and others....another could have Scherzer, Verlander, Zimmerman, Hamels and others... just plenty of possibilities that could put you middle of the pack or lower.

Anyway you look at it, Kershaw gains him a considerable amount of points making him not a wasted pick.

I don't mind the strategies that have been mentioned in here... To each his own. I just didn't like the "it only makes sense to pair Kershaw with 2 other aces" argument. Kershaw is still going to give him tons more points in the pitching category with or without the other true aces to go along with it. I personally would have taken a different route with pitching (I don't feel it's necessary to take any more or less high quality pitchers just because I have Kershaw... Either way I usually want 3 starters in the first 9 rounds).
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby West » Sun Mar 23, 2014 4:25 pm

J35J wrote:
West wrote:Kershaw (1)
Teheran (9)
Gray (12)
Cashner (13)
Tillman (18)
Ross (20)


Aside from Kershaw, you really are only "hoping" these guys pan out...they are still relative unknowns as far as what they can give you consistently over 200 innings. No way you are guaranteed top 3 with these guys. First off you'd have to hope they all pan out.


Where did I say that this staff "guaranteed" me a top 3 finish? Where did I say that this was surefire strategy that is going to dominate your league? Yes, there are plenty of possible outcomes where that team doesn't pan out with a top 3 finish. There's also a chance that blowing 3 of your first 6 picks on SP will get you an inneffective David Price and an injured Zack Greinke.
Second off, it wouldn't be tough at all for half the league to have better pitching than this. One team could have Strausburg, Price, Grienke and others...another team could have Darvish, Sale, Bailey and others...another could have Lee, Fernandez, Gio and others, another could have Waino, Bumgarner, Cole and others....another could have Scherzer, Verlander, Zimmerman, Hamels and others... just plenty of possibilities that could put you middle of the pack or lower.


Just hold on a minute. Are you telling me that there will be other managers in this hypothetical league, and furthermore, that these hypothetical managers are allowed to draft other top 20 starting pitchers? And that these higher ranked starters have a longer track record and are thus more likely to succeed than the bargain basement values that I have suggested drafting? What is this game that you play where other managers are allowed to pursue strategies that are different from the one I suggested above? Can you give me more hypothetical situations in which my draft strategy might fail?
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby West » Sun Mar 23, 2014 4:33 pm

NikkiSixx wrote:I don't mind the strategies that have been mentioned in here... To each his own. I just didn't like the "it only makes sense to pair Kershaw with 2 other aces" argument. Kershaw is still going to give him tons more points in the pitching category with or without the other true aces to go along with it. I personally would have taken a different route with pitching (I don't feel it's necessary to take any more or less high quality pitchers just because I have Kershaw... Either way I usually want 3 starters in the first 9 rounds).


This is exactly how I feel. I don't think any of the strategies listed are that bad. They all have pros and cons. I just feel, as you do, that the people advocating the "it only makes sense to pair Kershaw with two other aces" argument are acting as if this is the ONLY strategy you can roll with drafting Kershaw. I put my hypothetical staff up there to prove a point that you can roll with Kershaw in any number of different strategies. The one I listed is indeed a bit extreme, where you don't take a #2 until round 9 and the rest of your staff is filled out with young, unproven starters. But I think it illustrates the depth available at SP. Some disagree with me, that's fine. But don't come out and say, as some have, that a Kershaw pick is "wasted" if you don't win the pitching categories or that your strategy is the only way to first place. First of all, it's just presumptuous and arrogant. Secondly, it's just downright wrong.
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby BigLebowski » Sun Mar 23, 2014 5:04 pm

This was an auction league so a tad different than a snake, but this is the first time I took this approach in the cafe's BRAL league. Kershaw and Darvish were my first couple of buys, and that dictated this strategy. I wasn't a big fan of it at first, but as the draft progressed, I became a fan of my team. I expect to be able to trade Pitching later in the year for more offense, but only after I've built my lead. Chapman going down as a killer for me. I was banking on the 120 k's he was going to give me. But my starters of Kershaw/Darvish/Shields/Masterson then the "rest of the guys" I like where I'm at.

Jonathan Lucroy Mil - C
Prince Fielder Tex - 1B
Kelly Johnson NYY - 2B
Kyle Seager Sea - 3B
Ian Desmond Was - SS
José Bautista Tor - OF
Chris Carter Hou - OF
Colby Rasmus Tor OF
Billy Hamilton Cin - UT
Curtis Granderson NYM - BN
Ryan Howard Phi - BN


Clayton Kershaw LAD - P
Yu Darvish Tex - P
Ernesto Frieri LAA - P
John Axford Cle - P
Justin Masterson Cle - P
James Shields KC - P
Aroldis Chapman Cin - P
Doug Fister Was - P
Jeff Samardzija ChC - P
Tim Lincecum SF - P
Tyson Ross SD - P
Ervin Santana Atl - P
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby CBMGreatOne » Sun Mar 23, 2014 7:07 pm

BigLebowski wrote:This was an auction league so a tad different than a snake, but this is the first time I took this approach in the cafe's BRAL league. Kershaw and Darvish were my first couple of buys, and that dictated this strategy. I wasn't a big fan of it at first, but as the draft progressed, I became a fan of my team. I expect to be able to trade Pitching later in the year for more offense, but only after I've built my lead. Chapman going down as a killer for me. I was banking on the 120 k's he was going to give me. But my starters of Kershaw/Darvish/Shields/Masterson then the "rest of the guys" I like where I'm at.

Jonathan Lucroy Mil - C
Prince Fielder Tex - 1B
Kelly Johnson NYY - 2B
Kyle Seager Sea - 3B
Ian Desmond Was - SS
José Bautista Tor - OF
Chris Carter Hou - OF
Colby Rasmus Tor OF
Billy Hamilton Cin - UT
Curtis Granderson NYM - BN
Ryan Howard Phi - BN


Clayton Kershaw LAD - P
Yu Darvish Tex - P
Ernesto Frieri LAA - P
John Axford Cle - P
Justin Masterson Cle - P
James Shields KC - P
Aroldis Chapman Cin - P
Doug Fister Was - P
Jeff Samardzija ChC - P
Tim Lincecum SF - P
Tyson Ross SD - P
Ervin Santana Atl - P


How many teams? The pitching looks insane and the offense looks borderline brutal, but if you have a couple of iffy hitters pan out (breakouts from Rasmus and Hamilton?), your pitching dominance could carry you to a top finish.
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