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The Kershaw Effect

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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby J35J » Wed Mar 12, 2014 9:10 pm

West wrote:
J35J wrote:
I like Cole as well...top 20, he wouldn't be a bad #2 at all. But the point is, if I'm taking Kershaw in the first round...which I wouldn't...then I would want to be as sure as I can that I finish very highly in all the pitching categories and taking a bunch of youngsters is more of a cross my fingers and hope they don't regress, or need to get better, than if you take a Sale/Price/Grienke/Gio/Bailey type and feel more confident that you will win those categories.


It's funny that you are going out of your way to say that "But the point is, if I'm taking Kershaw in the first round..."

You think I don't know what the "point" of what you and RJ is saying is? You can keep repeating the argument, but obviously I disagree with you there.

It's hard for me to continue to argue for my point because to be quite honest I would never take Kershaw in the 1st either. My take is that if I'm taking Kershaw in the 1st then I'm playing catch up on offense for the next 6 rounds. If no one gets on board with that, that's fine, just my own opinion. I can see what you and RJ are getting at with the all or nothing argument, I just don't think it's the be all end all of "Kershaw Drafting Strategy".


We are all in agreement then.
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby West » Wed Mar 12, 2014 9:32 pm

Right - no one draft Kershaw, ever. Next topic!
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby Bloody Sox » Thu Mar 13, 2014 7:56 am

I haven't read in detail the last two pages of this thread, but count me in the camp that does NOT agree that if you draft Kershaw, you should back him up with another elite SP. I don't really get the logic that you should effectively pay for insurance (sacrificing even more offense) to back him up to make sure you win the pitching categories. Is there some H2H vs. Roto strategy nuance I'm missing?

My thinking is this: lets say I hypothetically thought the optimal time to draft starting pitchers to maximize my chances of winning (or finishing top 3) in the pitching categories was in rounds 4, 7, 8, 12, 14, 19, and 22. If I decided to grab Kershaw in the first round and then take a bat instead of a pitcher in the 4th round, my chances of doing well in the pitching categories has already improved over my initial expectations, so I see no reason to double-down and another pitcher in round 2. In fact, I'd probably inclined to wait until the 8th to take my second pitcher instead of the 7th, but then take my SP4 and SP5 earlier so that I'd have four solid SP3 level guys backing up Kershaw.

If I did for some bizarre reason decide to back Kershaw up with Darvish, then I don't think I'd be taking my SP3 until about round 12. I don't see how else you'd make up for the offensive hit.
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby West » Thu Mar 13, 2014 8:30 am

Bloody Sox wrote:I haven't read in detail the last two pages of this thread, but count me in the camp that does NOT agree that if you draft Kershaw, you should back him up with another elite SP. I don't really get the logic that you should effectively pay for insurance (sacrificing even more offense) to back him up to make sure you win the pitching categories. Is there some H2H vs. Roto strategy nuance I'm missing?

My thinking is this: lets say I hypothetically thought the optimal time to draft starting pitchers to maximize my chances of winning (or finishing top 3) in the pitching categories was in rounds 4, 7, 8, 12, 14, 19, and 22. If I decided to grab Kershaw in the first round and then take a bat instead of a pitcher in the 4th round, my chances of doing well in the pitching categories has already improved over my initial expectations, so I see no reason to double-down and another pitcher in round 2. In fact, I'd probably inclined to wait until the 8th to take my second pitcher instead of the 7th, but then take my SP4 and SP5 earlier so that I'd have four solid SP3 level guys backing up Kershaw.

If I did for some bizarre reason decide to back Kershaw up with Darvish, then I don't think I'd be taking my SP3 until about round 12. I don't see how else you'd make up for the offensive hit.


My thoughts exactly. Pitching is so deep that you can get plenty of quality arms late. The idea that drafting Kershaw means you HAVE to win every pitching category is absurd.

But careful, don't voice your opinion too strongly around here or you may be accused of getting "butt hurt".
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby rjforlife » Thu Mar 13, 2014 1:14 pm

West wrote:
My thoughts exactly. Pitching is so deep that you can get plenty of quality arms late. The idea that drafting Kershaw means you HAVE to win every pitching category is absurd.

But careful, don't voice your opinion too strongly around here or you may be accused of getting "butt hurt".



1. I never used the term butt hurt but I'm too lazy to look up who used it. I do not endorse this term whatsoever. :-D

2. Has anyone mentioned Darvish? I mentioned Felix once but when NikkiSix proposed Price or Greinke, that sounded much better and I wholeheartedly endorsed one of those as the second SP in round 5 or 6.

3. Pitching is deep, but it is deep for everyone. If you wait like everyone else, what advantage have you really gained? The guys at the top are better and more reliable pitchers, as much as I may like a Tyson Ross or Patrick Corbin or whomever.

4. I thought we were over the petty BS. We all agreed that everyone made valid points and perhaps everyone learned something, which is generally the point of these boards. I just want to have fun and not dredge up old comments.

5. We need to put a league together with some of this group, it might be a bit contentious but I think it would be a very lively and hard-fought league.
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby West » Thu Mar 13, 2014 1:50 pm

Agreed.

On the point of #3, I do think that there is a lot to be gained by waiting on pitching and loading up on offense, no matter what the circumstances. I have a decent list of 9th-25th round pitchers that could put anyone in the top half of the pitching categories in any league. It was mentioned at one point that
bigh0rt wrote:
We can all sit here and argue how we're going to get all of the mid-round steals to justify whether we should take him or not, but that doesn't take us anywhere. It's just filler.


However, this is the very point of my argument. My entire pitching strategy revolves around a cheat sheet of 10-15 pitchers all ranked outside of the top 100, that I believe can put you in the top 4 in the pitching cats if you built a staff around them. Taking Kershaw would not change that strategy one bit. I have no problem if people disagree with this, but that is my take. After all my leagues have drafted (next weekend), I would be happy to post a theoretical lineup of starting pitchers that you could draft based on Yahoo ADPs outside of the top 100, and we could see how that staff ended up at the end of the season. If I'm wrong then I'll happily eat my words.
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby Bloody Sox » Thu Mar 13, 2014 2:27 pm

2. Has anyone mentioned Darvish? I mentioned Felix once but when NikkiSix proposed Price or Greinke, that sounded much better and I wholeheartedly endorsed one of those as the second SP in round 5 or 6.


One of the first replies on page 1 said they would pair Kershaw with an ace from round 2 or 3. From there, I just assumed that all people agreeing to this line of thinking were referring to Darvish or someone of that ilk. Pairing him with a 6th rounder sounds perfectly reasonable to me.
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby BChinly » Thu Mar 13, 2014 2:30 pm

In the Scum league I took Kershaw in the first and Darvish and the second. Then I waited until the 12th round to draft Chris Archer
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby MashinSpuds » Fri Mar 14, 2014 12:19 pm

BChinly wrote:In the Scum league I took Kershaw in the first and Darvish and the second. Then I waited until the 12th round to draft Chris Archer

Then start prepping for the football season! ;-) Actually, that sounds impressive to me. Hopefully Archer pans out.
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby jfg » Sun Mar 16, 2014 2:42 am

If you draft Kershaw, you could spend a couple 5th- 7th rounders that compliments his ratios if you're playing it safe. The best move would be to draft another elite pitcher with high K's and low ratios so you can just draft ratios in the middle rounds. There are a a few guys to target that slip because of below average strikeouts, and you can load up on those guys and win the pitching cats. I guess I'd rather draft offense early and grab middle round pitchers and play it safe, but grabbing two elite pitchers right away could win you your league hands down if your season plays out right. At the very least, elite pitchers are easy to trade to correct your team if things don't play out right.
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