Return to Baseball Leftovers

The Kershaw Effect

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby J35J » Wed Mar 12, 2014 9:51 am

bigh0rt wrote:I'm in the "if you draft Kershaw, take another SP early to shore up your staff" camp. We can grossly over-simplify this, as some have tried in this thread, and strip away all relevance. Or we can have a reasonable discussion, as others have tried (regardless of whether you agree or disagree with the strategy). The common strategy of drafting big/power bats early generally falls within the context of hitting being easier to predict, less prone to injury, and more consistent year to year, than pitching (a gross, one sentence under-developed explanation, but more or less). Now, if you choose to fore-go likely your best shot to obtain one of these bats (Round 1), and instead take Clayton Kershaw, who would largely be considered the closest thing to a "sure thing" that currently exists among pitchers, then you are, at least to some degree, abandoning that strategy.

Some here are arguing that, once you abandon the aforementioned strategy, go all the way. Build a stud staff. Shore up the pitching categories. In essence, don't burn a top pick on a pitcher and then, injuries not withstanding, find yourself in the middle of the pack in pitching categories -- something you could have done just as easily had you not taken Kershaw in Round 1. Others point out that, it doesn't matter if you win ERA by .02 or 1.02, 12 points is 12 points. I understand both of these arguments. That being said, I think that the latter are overstating the impact that Kershaw, on his own, has on their pitching category standings. I do think that pairing Kershaw with another legitimate potential Ace, and projecting 400 elite innings, which should be 1/4 to 1/3 of your allotted total depending on your league, seems a lot more likely to find yourself atop the pitching categories, than putting your eggs into the Kershaw and guys I think are good mid/late round value boat. But that's just me.

We can all sit here and argue how we're going to get all of the mid-round steals to justify whether we should take him or not, but that doesn't take us anywhere. It's just filler.

Something that I don't think has been brought up yet either is that, in my experience, strong starting pitchers, mid-season, tend to be the most sought after, valuable, and movable trade pieces. It could be just in the leagues I've played in, but a #1 or #2 pitcher seems to be better trade fodder than a strong bat. I see top arms move more frequently, and yield better returns. So let's say you've drafted your pitching early, gotten ahead of your innings pace, and have posted stud numbers. You can potentially earn more (again, in my experience) flipping your SP for bats, than vice versa.


+1

Well said.
J35J
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 10377
(Past Year: -42)
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby NikkiSixx » Wed Mar 12, 2014 11:03 am

rjforlife wrote:
West wrote:I haven't had time to respond to every comment but basically I completely agree with NikkiSix.

"If you take Kershaw then someone else could take Felix/Wainwright/Darvish and beat you!"

What an argument. That combined with one story about how a guy won last year with Chris Davis.


Wow, what to make up some total BS, you are really contributing to this thread in such an informative and helpful way.



Nikki- I think when you say taking Price/Greinke and then Cole is the best strategy, I think that puts you in a hell of a good position to dominate pitching while not suiciding your offense. I think of anything said in this thread, that may be the best way to approach the pitching with Kershaw.

Kerhaw/Price/Cole in rounds 1/5/8 sounds damn good to me.

Thanks RJ. It makes the most sense to me.
NikkiSixx
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Pick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 2567
(Past Year: 368)
Joined: 26 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 1st place!

Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby J35J » Wed Mar 12, 2014 11:41 am

NikkiSixx wrote:
rjforlife wrote:
West wrote:I haven't had time to respond to every comment but basically I completely agree with NikkiSix.

"If you take Kershaw then someone else could take Felix/Wainwright/Darvish and beat you!"

What an argument. That combined with one story about how a guy won last year with Chris Davis.


Wow, what to make up some total BS, you are really contributing to this thread in such an informative and helpful way.



Nikki- I think when you say taking Price/Greinke and then Cole is the best strategy, I think that puts you in a hell of a good position to dominate pitching while not suiciding your offense. I think of anything said in this thread, that may be the best way to approach the pitching with Kershaw.

Kerhaw/Price/Cole in rounds 1/5/8 sounds damn good to me.

Thanks RJ. It makes the most sense to me.


Which is what is meant by backing up your Kershaw pick with other top picks. Kershaw, Price and Grienke are 3 of the top 15 SP on the board. I don't necessarily think anyone is saying you have to use your first 2 picks on starters if you take Kershaw but just that you make sure you get a couple other top end starters...like Price/Grienke....and not gamble on Kershaw and 3-4 rookies or 1 year players that aren't proven(Cole,Gray, Cashner, etc). Make Cole/Gray/Cashner be your 4th and 5th starters...not your 2nd and 3rd.


But really, there is no wrong answer, there shouldn't be any butt hurt going on here.
J35J
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 10377
(Past Year: -42)
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby NikkiSixx » Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:00 pm

J35J wrote:
NikkiSixx wrote:
rjforlife wrote:
Wow, what to make up some total BS, you are really contributing to this thread in such an informative and helpful way.



Nikki- I think when you say taking Price/Greinke and then Cole is the best strategy, I think that puts you in a hell of a good position to dominate pitching while not suiciding your offense. I think of anything said in this thread, that may be the best way to approach the pitching with Kershaw.

Kerhaw/Price/Cole in rounds 1/5/8 sounds damn good to me.

Thanks RJ. It makes the most sense to me.


Which is what is meant by backing up your Kershaw pick with other top picks. Kershaw, Price and Grienke are 3 of the top 15 SP on the board. I don't necessarily think anyone is saying you have to use your first 2 picks on starters if you take Kershaw but just that you make sure you get a couple other top end starters...like Price/Grienke....and not gamble on Kershaw and 3-4 rookies or 1 year players that aren't proven(Cole,Gray, Cashner, etc). Make Cole/Gray/Cashner be your 4th and 5th starters...not your 2nd and 3rd.


But really, there is no wrong answer, there shouldn't be any butt hurt going on here.

Agreed. Just voicing opinions.

I usually take pitchers in rounds 4 and 5 myself... So having 2 pitchers in the first 5 or 6 rounds is my strategy anyway. I just don't see the point in changing your entire strategy just because you drafted Kershaw.


I think it was just a debate, I don't think anyone was butt hurt over anything that was said. And if they are, they need to remember it's just fantasy baseball.
NikkiSixx
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Pick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 2567
(Past Year: 368)
Joined: 26 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 1st place!

Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby MashinSpuds » Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:17 pm

NikkiSixx wrote:And if they are, they need to remember it's just fantasy baseball.

And there it is. As the first replier to this thread, I have learned to appreciate both sides of the argument. Maybe I'll try the Kershaw strategy first sometime now that I see it's feasible.
MashinSpuds
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe RankerEagle EyeCafecaster
Posts: 2544
(Past Year: 6)
Joined: 25 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Boston

Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby rjforlife » Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:28 pm

I think through all the posts we've actually come to something fairly helpful here, especially for me since I have a big money 12 team draft in 4 days which is 5X6 with QS added. If Kershaw is available to me in round one, I will surely use the Kershaw strategy here to build a top staff and hopefully win 5 pitching categories instead of the usual 4. (not including saves)
Goldy is King.
rjforlife
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicResponse TeamCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 7493
(Past Year: 247)
Joined: 25 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Vegas Baby

Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby West » Wed Mar 12, 2014 8:18 pm

RJ, I didn't make up anything, maybe embellished. I certainly am not getting "butt hurt", whatever the hell that means... This is what you said:

The point of taking Kershaw early is to win pitching. If you take Kershaw and then wait for Gerrit Cole, someone that takes Waino in the second and Sale in the 4th has just as good a 1/2 punch as you and they have a super-elite hitter to go with it. If you don't go big on pitching with Kershaw, then you should simply not take him.


Both of the statements in bold are completely off. You don't take a top SP so you can "win pitching". You take a top SP to obtain his dollar value as represented in rotisserie points, so you can win your league. It doesn't have to be all or nothing. You can draft Kershaw in the 1st and then pursue a million different strategies that would all win your league. And there are plenty of top tier hitters available in the 2nd that are close to elite.

rjforlife wrote:
West wrote:I haven't had time to respond to every comment but basically I completely agree with NikkiSix.

"If you take Kershaw then someone else could take Felix/Wainwright/Darvish and beat you!"

What an argument. That combined with one story about how a guy won last year with Chris Davis.


Wow, what to make up some total BS, you are really contributing to this thread in such an informative and helpful way.



Nikki- I think when you say taking Price/Greinke and then Cole is the best strategy, I think that puts you in a hell of a good position to dominate pitching while not suiciding your offense. I think of anything said in this thread, that may be the best way to approach the pitching with Kershaw.

Kerhaw/Price/Cole in rounds 1/5/8 sounds damn good to me.


This is very similar to the strategy I proposed in the beginning of the thread. Basically, drafting Kershaw, having your #2 be Teheran (9th), your #3 Sonny Gray (12th), #4 Cashner/Ryu (13/14), then filling out with Tillman/Paxton/Smyly/Ross/Kluber. This strategy would net you a top 4 finish in all the pitching categories and have plenty of room left over for hitting and closers.
West
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1519
(Past Year: 66)
Joined: 28 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby West » Wed Mar 12, 2014 8:22 pm

J35J wrote:
Which is what is meant by backing up your Kershaw pick with other top picks. Kershaw, Price and Grienke are 3 of the top 15 SP on the board. I don't necessarily think anyone is saying you have to use your first 2 picks on starters if you take Kershaw but just that you make sure you get a couple other top end starters...like Price/Grienke....and not gamble on Kershaw and 3-4 rookies or 1 year players that aren't proven(Cole,Gray, Cashner, etc). Make Cole/Gray/Cashner be your 4th and 5th starters...not your 2nd and 3rd.


But really, there is no wrong answer, there shouldn't be any butt hurt going on here.


Cole/Gray/Cashner as your #4/#5 starters is not necessary. I would happily have Gray as my #2. Cole would make an excellent #2 and Cashner would be a solid #3 starter this year. I think we have different valuations of starting pitching.
West
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1519
(Past Year: 66)
Joined: 28 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby J35J » Wed Mar 12, 2014 8:44 pm

West wrote:
J35J wrote:
Which is what is meant by backing up your Kershaw pick with other top picks. Kershaw, Price and Grienke are 3 of the top 15 SP on the board. I don't necessarily think anyone is saying you have to use your first 2 picks on starters if you take Kershaw but just that you make sure you get a couple other top end starters...like Price/Grienke....and not gamble on Kershaw and 3-4 rookies or 1 year players that aren't proven(Cole,Gray, Cashner, etc). Make Cole/Gray/Cashner be your 4th and 5th starters...not your 2nd and 3rd.


But really, there is no wrong answer, there shouldn't be any butt hurt going on here.


Cole/Gray/Cashner as your #4/#5 starters is not necessary. I would happily have Gray as my #2. Cole would make an excellent #2 and Cashner would be a solid #3 starter this year. I think we have different valuations of starting pitching.


I like Cole as well...top 20, he wouldn't be a bad #2 at all. But the point is, if I'm taking Kershaw in the first round...which I wouldn't...then I would want to be as sure as I can that I finish very highly in all the pitching categories and taking a bunch of youngsters is more of a cross my fingers and hope they don't regress, or need to get better, than if you take a Sale/Price/Grienke/Gio/Bailey type and feel more confident that you will win those categories.
J35J
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 10377
(Past Year: -42)
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby West » Wed Mar 12, 2014 8:51 pm

J35J wrote:
I like Cole as well...top 20, he wouldn't be a bad #2 at all. But the point is, if I'm taking Kershaw in the first round...which I wouldn't...then I would want to be as sure as I can that I finish very highly in all the pitching categories and taking a bunch of youngsters is more of a cross my fingers and hope they don't regress, or need to get better, than if you take a Sale/Price/Grienke/Gio/Bailey type and feel more confident that you will win those categories.


It's funny that you are going out of your way to say that "But the point is, if I'm taking Kershaw in the first round..."

You think I don't know what the "point" of what you and RJ is saying is? You can keep repeating the argument, but obviously I disagree with you there.

It's hard for me to continue to argue for my point because to be quite honest I would never take Kershaw in the 1st either. My take is that if I'm taking Kershaw in the 1st then I'm playing catch up on offense for the next 6 rounds. If no one gets on board with that, that's fine, just my own opinion. I can see what you and RJ are getting at with the all or nothing argument, I just don't think it's the be all end all of "Kershaw Drafting Strategy".
West
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1519
(Past Year: 66)
Joined: 28 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests

cron