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The Kershaw Effect

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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby NikkiSixx » Mon Mar 10, 2014 10:57 pm

Ah, looks like there was a response just before I submitted the last comment... Let me read.
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby bouncepass » Mon Mar 10, 2014 10:58 pm

My opinion on this is that Pitching is so deep, that once you take Kershaw, you can load up on hitters and wait to build the rest of the staff. Im in a keeper league and I have Chris Sale, so I may wait a little longer to draft another pitcher. I also have Rosario and Puig, so I think ill be in good shape with my hitting if I take Kershaw in round 1.
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby NikkiSixx » Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:02 pm

The Artful Dodger wrote:
West wrote:
The Artful Dodger wrote:I would pair Kershaw with an ace in either Round 2 or 3 and then one of Cole, Shields, Cain as my #3 in Round 6-7. IMO, there's no point in taking Kershaw without building a top-tier fantasy rotation.


This doesn't make much sense to me. Kershaw is going to anchor your staff, and there is plenty of room in the middle of the standings to gain without dominating or punting the pitching categories. I wouldn't take a pitcher early, but if I did, I certainly wouldn't double down in the early rounds. I'd shoot for a Teheran/Latos/Bailey type in the 8th/9th, then wait for the Liriano/Cashner/Ryu/Corbin tier then take some upside/fliers late.

You could still win the pitching cats with say:
Kershaw (1)
Teheran (8/9)
Gray (11)
Cashner/Ryu/Corbin (13/14)
Tillman/Paxton/Smyly/Ross/Kluber etc... (endgame)

And have plenty of room for offense and closers left over.


I'm not necessarily endorsing to punt away categories. The rationale is if I take Kershaw in Round 1, I might as well draft 2-3 innings eating workhorses to dominate ERA and WHIP. Then, I can draft the likes of Gray, Cashner, and Kluber as my #4 and #5.

I touched upon this in another thread recently and some others did as well. I would base my drafting strategy on taking SP and OF early, especially in 5 OF leagues. Quality thins out in OF early and IMO, investing in elite starting pitching is safer than elite hitting. You can probably find good replacement value quality at C, 1B, and 3B while getting an adequate MI combo.

Anecdotally, last year, I took Kershaw in the early 2nd round and Felix in Round 3 of a Cafeholics league. I was able to snag Scherzer in Round 7 while I also got Bailey in the middle rounds. The strategy isn't all too different this year. Grab two top-tier aces, get an emergent third-tier pitcher a few rounds later, and another pitcher with the upside of a #2 as my #4. Meanwhile, I'll be content in scooping up undervalued hitters in between.

(Disclaimer: In said league, I still had CarGo in Round 1 and Chris Davis in the middle rounds, among other bargains such as Rios and Soriano... and won by some 20 odd points.)

Well done last year... I wouldn't bank on getting hitters of that quality late in the draft again though.... It was probably more lucky than anything. Unless you just have an extraordinary eye for talent in the later rounds every year, and if that's the case you should be very rich from your fantasy baseball knowledge and should play in lots of money leagues every year.

In most cases you likely don't get a Rios and Chris Davis late in the draft and you probably don't get a Scherzer in round 7 every year either... If you rely on first round talent in the mid rounds you are likely to fail more times than not. I'm glad it worked out for you last year though.
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby rjforlife » Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:11 pm

The point of taking Kershaw early is to win pitching. If you take Kershaw and then wait for Gerrit Cole, someone that takes Waino in the second and Sale in the 4th has just as good a 1/2 punch as you and they have a super-elite hitter to go with it. If you don't go big on pitching with Kershaw, then you should simply not take him.
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby NikkiSixx » Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:14 pm

rjforlife wrote:The point of taking Kershaw early is to win pitching. If you take Kershaw and then wait for Gerrit Cole, someone that takes Waino in the second and Sale in the 4th has just as good a 1/2 punch as you and they have a super-elite hitter to go with it. If you don't go big on pitching with Kershaw, then you should simply not take him.

Well I think if you are gonna spend all those picks on big arms anyway... Then there is no point in drafting Kershaw. Like I mentioned before... You don't get extra points by winning strikeouts by triple digits or winning ERA by 50 points.
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby The Artful Dodger » Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:25 pm

NikkiSixx wrote:Well done last year... I wouldn't bank on getting hitters of that quality late in the draft again though.... It was probably more lucky than anything. Unless you just have an extraordinary eye for talent in the later rounds every year, and if that's the case you should be very rich from your fantasy baseball knowledge and should play in lots of money leagues every year.

In most cases you likely don't get a Rios and Chris Davis late in the draft and you probably don't get a Scherzer in round 7 every year either... If you rely on first round talent in the mid rounds you are likely to fail more times than not. I'm glad it worked out for you last year though.


That's why I put a disclaimer and why I acknowledged that my case was anecdotal. I wouldn't expect to score big hits with my mid-to-late round offensive picks. Last year, IMO, was much easier to identify undervalued hitters compared to this year. I wasn't banking on the likes of Rios and Davis performing way above expectation though. Similarly, I thought Butler and Cespedes weren't as safe value as Felix in Round 3 and that assessment wound up being closer to the truth.
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby The Artful Dodger » Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:29 pm

rjforlife wrote:The point of taking Kershaw early is to win pitching. If you take Kershaw and then wait for Gerrit Cole, someone that takes Waino in the second and Sale in the 4th has just as good a 1/2 punch as you and they have a super-elite hitter to go with it. If you don't go big on pitching with Kershaw, then you should simply not take him.


Also, in this hypothetical, you run the risk of Cole taking a step back. Then, you need your #3 and #4 SP to perform a little bit better than projected. Ideally, I'd want Kershaw and a top-tier pitcher like Wainwright to build off, such that if my breakout candidates perform about just as expected, I'd be top 3 in K, ERA, and WHIP at least.
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby NikkiSixx » Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:30 pm

The Artful Dodger wrote:
NikkiSixx wrote:Well done last year... I wouldn't bank on getting hitters of that quality late in the draft again though.... It was probably more lucky than anything. Unless you just have an extraordinary eye for talent in the later rounds every year, and if that's the case you should be very rich from your fantasy baseball knowledge and should play in lots of money leagues every year.

In most cases you likely don't get a Rios and Chris Davis late in the draft and you probably don't get a Scherzer in round 7 every year either... If you rely on first round talent in the mid rounds you are likely to fail more times than not. I'm glad it worked out for you last year though.


That's why I put a disclaimer and why I acknowledged that my case was anecdotal. I wouldn't expect to score big hits with my mid-to-late round offensive picks. Last year, IMO, was much easier to identify undervalued hitters compared to this year. I wasn't banking on the likes of Rios and Davis performing way above expectation though. Similarly, I thought Butler and Cespedes weren't as safe value as Felix in Round 3 and that assessment wound up being closer to the truth.

I don't disagree with that... I just think that you probably could have NOT had 1 of the 3 aces you mentioned and still probably won the pitching categories... And hey, if you don't win the pitching categories then you only won the league by 18 points instead of 20! I would rather have another big bat... But that's just me. Sounds like you were on your game last season though. That kind of drafting wins championships by itself... You don't even need in season management! Lol
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby NikkiSixx » Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:33 pm

For what it's worth though, I have Gerrit Cole becoming a legit ace this year. Might not quite be as beneficial a pick as Scherzer was in the 7th round last year.... But at the same time you probably won't ever get Cole this cheap again.
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Re: The Kershaw Effect

Postby rjforlife » Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:49 pm

NikkiSixx wrote:For what it's worth though, I have Gerrit Cole becoming a legit ace this year. Might not quite be as beneficial a pick as Scherzer was in the 7th round last year.... But at the same time you probably won't ever get Cole this cheap again.



Cole is baller. He takes over the NL Central this year.
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