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Become the Expert

Postby Element » Sun Mar 02, 2014 12:50 pm

Let's have a little exercise. Pick 2 players at every position that currently being ranked outside of the top 10 on most lists (top 30 for OF/SP) that you think have the best chance in finishing inside of the top 5. Assume standard roto format (12 team; BA, R, HR, RBI, SB, ERA, WHIP, W, S, K). Give a name and small write up to back up your selection. I would also like for everyone to name 1 positional prospect and 1 pitching prospect that will have the largest fantasy impact. Again, explain. It would be fun to revisit at the end of the season to see which posters get the closest.

Catchers (2 outside of the top 10; finish in top 5)

!st Base (2 outside of the top 10; finish in top 5)

2nd Base (2 outside of the top 10; finish in top 5)

3rd Base (2 outside of the top 10; finish in top 5)

Short Stop (2 outside of the top 10; finish in top 5)

Outfield (2 outside of the top 30; finish in top 10)

Starting Pitcher (2 outside of the top 30; finish in top 5)

Closers (2 outside of the top 10; finish in top 5)

Prospects (1 Pitcher; 1 Position player; biggest fantasy impact -- exclude Tanaka/Abreu)
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Re: Become the Expert

Postby cordscords » Sun Mar 02, 2014 5:39 pm

C:

1. Evan Gattis. Gattis comes in at #10 on Fantasypros, but there are enough experts ranking him outside of that number so I'll say he qualifies for this. This guy can flat out rake. Looks like he's going to bat cleanup this year and his minor league #'s suggest better plate discipline could arrive this year.

2. Travis d'Arnaud. His health and lack of MLB playing time are the only real knocks against him. This guy is in his prime years (in terms of age) and has the power and plate discipline to finish in the top 5 if all the stars align.

1B:

1. Anthony Rizzo. Despite not living up to the hype last season, there was still a lot to like to project him as a star going forward. He's got a good eye, good pop, and a spot in the heart of the order.

2. David Ortiz. Big Papi is certainly no stranger to finishing inside the top 5 at this position. Ranked outside of the top 10 purely due to age/health concerns alone, you can't doubt his ability to mash just yet, meaning he could very well find himself finishing inside the top 5.

2B:

1. Jedd Gyorko. Like Gattis, he's ranked outside the 10 by enough experts. Nobody is doubting the power, and I think he can add to that AVG if his minor league stats are any indication. Pro-rate his numbers last year along with some growth for a 25 year old over 150 games, and you have yourself a top 5 2B.

2. Brett Lawrie. In an era when guys like Harper and Trout have come into the league and wowed us immediately, it's very easy to forget that some guys just need time. The time for Lawrie is now. He's playing in a potent lineup so the opportunities will be there for him to deliver on his post-hype status.

3B:

1. Pablo Sandoval. Panda is streaky as hell, but I'm a believer in his improved work ethic thatt will lead to a bounce back and once again a spot inside the top 5.

2. Nolan Arenado. Playing in Coors Field w/ a strong lineup, profiles as a high AVG guy, and has shown 25+ HR power in the minors before.

SS:

1. Brad Miller. Performed just about in line with what he's always done in the minors. At 24 I think he takes another step forward, and possibly goes HAM to finish in the top 5.

2. Xander Bogaerts. I'm gonna expect a lot of ppl will have some combination of Miller/Bogaerts/Profar in this section. I'll give Bogaerts the edge just because.

OF:

1. Josh Hamilton. The second half of '12 and most of '13 wasn't that pretty, but I'm still a believer in Hamilton. .280, 35 HR, 100 RBI isn't outside the realm of possibility at all.

2. Desmond Jennings. Remember when he was supposed to be the next Carl Crawford for the Rays? Maybe he still can be. Batting leadoff, just enough power, draws plenty of walks, and has the wheels to make a lot of noise.

SP:

1. Danny Salazar. Probably to the surprise of nobody. When you were making guys swing and miss the way Salazar was last year, he's got the ability to become an ace.

2. Jeff Samardzija. If you want a chance to finish inside the top 5, you gottta flash that K rate. Samardzija certainly can, and with a bit of luck going his way and perhaps some improvement with his control, he could vault himself inside the top 5.

RP:

1. Addison Reed. Hoping that K rate from the minors returns.

2. Jonathan Papelbon. Might not be in his prime, but he's done done either.

Positional Prospect: Oscar Taveras. I think he's got the skillset to be a major contributor right away.

Pitching Prospect: Archie Bradley. He's already got 2 plus pitches that I think would translate in well in the big league, that might be all he needs to carry him for his rookie season at least.
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Re: Become the Expert

Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Mon Mar 03, 2014 2:21 am

C: Jesus Montero + Yan Gomes

Playing time could potentially an issue here for both. Gomes basically put up a line that would be top-5 if he got full-time ABs; I'm not too concerned by the high BABIP since he had a really good BABIp in the minors.

For Montero, he hit really well in 2012 and then was awful last year. But he's only 24, and I don't see why he can't hit more like 2012 if he plays and I think he has top-5 upside potential (I don't think he actually gets there; I wanted to choose someone who was pretty deep on lists).

1B: Allen Craig + Adam Lind

Both of these guys had pretty good years last year. I think Craig has the potential to improve and be borderline-top 5 (though he is much more likely to settle around borderline top-10). Lind is another off-the-reservation guy who I think could be a playable guy, though he's probably not top-5.

2B: Jed Lowrie + Jurickson Profar

Profar is based entirely off the prospect hype, though he's definitely not as good in fantasy. Lowrie could be a better fantasy guy if he wasn't stuck in Oakland (though I doubt he's a trade candidate); honestly this position is borderline impossible as I don't see anybody outside the top-10 that I have much interest in.

SS: Jimmy Rollins + Alexei Ramirez

Rollins is actually my favorite MI here; he did hit 20/20 in 2012 and was close in 2011. I don't know why 2013 was so bad, but I think Rollins can respond and put up one more big year.

Alexei Ramirez I guess he could steal 30-35 bags again. He's had a pretty good SB% for his career.

3B: Aramis Ramirez and Lonnie Chisenhall

Last year was bad for Aramis; he got hurt. But he's a guy I always draft; every year he's undervalued and every year he puts up 25-30 HR (assuming health) with a decent avaerage. Old but still good.

Chisenhall may not even get ABs is Carlos Santana plays 3B. But he's a guy who could go .280/20 if he plays. That's not top-5 but it's playable; if he gets lucky maybe he can put up a big year. I'm sure he's not even getting drafted in the deepest of leagues so I'm taking a longshot here.

OF: Coco Crisp/Brett Gardner/Will Venable

Venable if he coudl learn to hit lefties has a good power/speed combo (could he be top-10, prob not, but he's barely drafted). Coco and Brett Garnder are criminally underdrafted; Coco went 20/20 last year and Gardner still has top-tier speed.

SP: Chris Archer and Danny Salazar

I'm pretty sure enough people will hop on the Salazar bus. Archer's a guy who had a pretty good year last year; I think if he uses his changeup a little bit smarter he could improve himself quite a bit.

RP: Jason Grilli and Grant Balfour; closer is a mess anyways but these two guys are good RPs.

Top batting prospect: Oscar Taveras

Top pitching prospect: Yordano Ventura
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Re: Become the Expert

Postby NikkiSixx » Thu Mar 06, 2014 10:09 am

I guess I'll use the yahoo O-rank for the outside the top 10 thing.


C - Evan Gattis - Gotta love the power in the half season last year, I can see 25 HR 80 RBI in a good Braves lineup.

C - Yan Gomes - If Carlos Santana actually does play some 3B this year then I would love to see what Gomes can do over a full season. Could be a very well rounded stat line for a catcher.


1B - Billy Butler - One year removed from a .313 avg, 29 HR, 107 RBI season. He won't be as good as that, but he won't be as bad as last year. I can realistically see a .300 RBI, 20 HR, 100 RBI season (Something very similar netted Freddie Freeman the 16th overall player on yahoo last year). And he is extremely durable. The ground ball rate should return to his career average.

1B - Matt Adams - Full time at bats could equal great results. He was hitting 4th in the world series last year, he should be in the middle of the order again this year and had 17 HR in a half season. Has 30 HR, 100 RBI written all over him.


2B - Jedd Gyorko - Another 30 HR guy on my list, and he comes from the middle infield. There seems to be a lot of cheap power out there. A power hitter in petco park is always scary, but Gyorko should be a solid producer and with a lucky BABIP he could end up on the top 5 of this list.

2B - Kolten Wong - Double digit power and speed combo at 2B. He plays in St. Louis and if he somehow moves up to say... 2nd in the batting order? This could pay huge dividends. He will probably start the season batting 7th or 8th though. I can see a .270 avg, 10 HR, 15 SB season though with a little bit of upside.


3B - Brett Lawrie - Post-hype "sleeper" here (not really a sleeper when he is on everyone's radar), but he could still deliver on the promise. If he doesn't get hurt by playing too hard again, he should be a 20-20 threat with a decent batting average. That Blue Jays lineup is looking good this year.

3B - Will Middlebrooks - The power will be there, can the batting average go along with it? Pitchers seemed to discover a weakness of his last season and that ultimately lead to a demotion, but if he can play a full season he can have a lot of power and shouldn't be a total average killer.


SS - Jed Lowrie - Over achiever in the middle of an underrated Oakland A's lineup can only mean good things. Nothing seems out of the ordinary with his stat line last year (.319 BABIP, 13.7 K%, and his .156 ISO was actually below his career average of .163, so maybe a couple more HR are possible).

SS - Xander Bogaerts - I just don't see him flopping. Should be a solid contributor all around. I can see .280, 15 HR, 8 SB with some upside in a good Red Sox lineup.


OF - Desmond Jennings - This is probably the most obvious to everyone. He is still young, still has the upside, still batting in a favorable spot in the batting order. If he can stay healthy for a full year I don't see why 15 HR and 30 SB is out of reach with upside to reach 20 HR and 50 SB (best case scenario).

OF - Brett Gardner - I just can't think he is done stealing bases at a high rate just yet. Last year was discouraging to only see him get 24 steals while playing for most of the season, but I think he still has 1 or 2 40 SB seasons left in him. He could also vulture some RBI hitting lower in the Yankees batting order. He still has the upside to do something similar to what Ellsbury did last season.

OF - Shane Victorino - I know Victorino isn't the sexiest guess I could have made but he will be batting leadoff for the red sox this year meaning more plate appearances and more runs scored and possibly more steals. He still has a pretty high success rate on his steals (21 of 24 converted steal attempts last season), and when you combine that with an .801 OPS he just had last season (.774 career), that means good things could be in the future for Victorino owners.


SP - Scott Kazmir - No surprise here for anybody that has seen my other posts in the café in the past few weeks. I'm on the Scott Kazmir hype train, and I'm not getting off anytime soon! His velocity is back and his fastball touched 96 last season. He had a career high in xfip and K/BB ratio last year (he had some solid seasons back in the day so for him to post his career high last season is impressive), and he is moving to Oakland!! That foul ball territory in Oakland will give him a bunch of free outs that would just be foul balls in other stadiums... Who doesn't like free outs? I'm taking Scott Kazmir... I'm seeing a 3.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and over a K per inning with some upside. Oakland should help him get a decent number of wins as well.

SP - Tony Cingrani - He has just been impressive everywhere he has been and with a very high K rate (over a 10 K/9 at every level including the majors). He even had over 100 major league innings that provided nothing more than you would consider from your ACE. He hasn't done it for a full season yet so it's ok to still be skeptical, but he won't be ranked outside the top 30 SP next year. His two pitch approach can hurt him in the long run, but I'm gonna ride this wave until it crashes... if it ever does crash.

SP - Clay Buchholz - I'm still a big Buchholz fan. I've been big on him for his entire career, but he seems to get injured every year one way or another. When he has been healthy, he has been a pretty darn good pitcher... barring a couple ugly months in the beginning of 2012 where he seemed to have lost command of his change-up (his best pitch). Clay took a huge step forward last year and while the 1.74 ERA is not at all realistic to be repeated, his FIP of 2.78 or his xfip of 3.41 last year are likely to be repeated. But Clay Buchholz for his career has always had a lower actual ERA than his FIP, so for his FIP to be sub 3, then I would say it's a safe bet for his ERA will be right around the same as well. More impressive for Clay is he has had a low ERA his entire career in the AL east. If you look at his split stats since 2010, you will see that he has had a 3.08 ERA or lower in 13 of the 19 months he has thrown in that time period. STAY HEALTHY CLAY!!!!

RP - David Robertson - He barely misses the top 10 on the yahoo closer list, but don't sleep on his ability to reach the top 5. His K rate has remained high throughout his entire career and so have his numbers as a reliever. With a K/BB ratio over 4.00 during the last 2 seasons and a career HR/9 well under 1 (0.63)... I'm gonna say his chances of imploding are slim to none. Enjoy the dominant numbers at a discount.

RP - Fernando Rodney - I know Fernando Rodney doesn't get much love, but he is only getting better each year (not counting 2012 with the fluke low BB/9). He threw harder last year than he has in his entire career, and he had a career high in K/9 (11.07) to go along with it. We saw how ridiculous dominant he could be if he were to just cut down the walks like he did in 2012, but you shouldn't be counting on a return to those numbers. If he can even bring his BB/9 under 4 we would all be thankful. He doesn't allow a lot of home runs at all (HR/9 rate of 0.28, 0.24, and 0.41 for the last 3 seasons). With a HR/9 that low, and a strikeout rate that high, you will get a very high success rate from your closer. The only thing standing between Rodney and true dominance are his absurd amount of walks. If he DOES cut down his walks (career 4.47 BB/9, but only 1.81 BB/9 in 2012), we've seen just how great he can be.

Hitting prospect - George Springer - The power speed combo is ridiculous. Even if he doesn't produce anywhere close to what he did in the minors... I can see still see him flirting with 15/15 in a half season with a .240ish average thanks to all the K's. But he does walk a lot too, so the steals should be there.

Pitching prospect - Archie Bradley - Every year there are great prospects that come up and have a great half season and are high on everyone's draft boards next year with a ton of hype and potential to improve... That is Archie Bradley this year. I'm very confident his half season will be electric. He has great stuff and good command, and he will be an ace that will be anchoring fantasy staffs in a couple of years. He will be well worth the stash.
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Re: Become the Expert

Postby Izenhart » Sat Mar 08, 2014 2:07 am

C - A.J. Pierzynski and Mike Zunino. Ok let's face it A.J. is getting old but he's still in good shape for a C his age. The thing I love about him this year is the ability of the lineup in front of him to get on base combined with the fact Pierzynski swings at everything yet somehow maintains a respectable batting average. Batting 6th or 7th he's got Pedroia (.371 OBP last year) Ortiz (.395 OBP) and Napoli (.359) in front of him and this should equate to a lot of RBI from a C that you can get very late in drafts. Zunino is a 22 year old powerhouse who hit 24 HR in 364 minor league at bats and a .286/.365/.571. slash-line. His ceiling is yet to be determined, but I think he will play a lot like Evan Gattis did last season.

1B - Matt Adams and Adam Lind. Adams is the easy choice here for me, the only reason he is ranked this low is because the Cards don't seem to want to commit to handing him a full time gig. It may take a month, but those who draft him and are patient may be rewarded if he starts out hot and works himself into more playing time. The 6'3, 260 pound, 25 year old brickhouse is averaging a HR every 20 AB in the majors so far, which is about par for his minor league course, where he possesses a .318 career average in 1500 at bats. Adam Lind is a solid, unflashy hitter, still only 30 years old, he is surrounded by other fantasy darlings Encarnacion, Bautista and Reyes. If Melky and Rasmus can put together solid seasons too, Lind may see a lot more juicy pitches to hit. His 67 RBI in 465 AB last year was one of the more flukey things I have seen in recent memory, especially when considering he hit cleanup all year and posted a .288 Avg. I'm expecting something closer to 90-100 RBI if that lineup ever starts clicking.

2B - Chase Utley and Daniel Murphy. Utley seems to be getting buried in rankings to the point where even if he spends 30 games on the DL he's going to out produce everyone under him. I'll gladly take him outside the top 10 and cross my fingers for health. There's no doubt he can still hit and possesses 20-25 home run power, and that's hard to find at 2B. Murphy is your Matt Carpenter lite. playing in 161 games and accumulating 650 at bats last year, batting 2nd in a mediocre lineup is all he needed to score 90 runs. Chipping in an unexpected 23 steals and batting a solid .286, Murphy still gets overlooked. Sure, his numbers may come down some, but maybe they won't! In the latter case, he's a solid candidate for a top 5, especially if he *gulp* improves. His .286 BA mark last year is actually 4 points under his career BA, and at 28 years old, there's little not to like right now.

3B - Aramis Ramirez and Kyle Seager. When healthy, Aramis is a top 50 player. You can bank on a .290 average, 25 home runs and 90 RBI every year. If anyone pushes top 5 at 3B (Miggy, E5, Longo, Beltre, Wright) he's probably got the best shot. Seager is a guy coming into his prime who now has 2 fairly decent seasons under his belt. He avoided the dreaded sophomore slump last year, so here's to hoping year number three sees him stepping forward into realizing his 30 HR/10 SB potential.

SS - Jimmy Rollins and Asdrubal Cabrera. Anytime someone Rollins' age with his skillset has a bad year, its easy to write him off and forget about him. In a 12 team league he is a perfect early bench target that won't cost much, but in larger leagues if you miss out on a top SS, this is your man to invest in. His .250 average will put some off, but I still believe he has the wheels to push 25-30 steals and the bat to sock a dozen or more out. Health will play a big part in his success this year, because he's one of those guys who refuse to take a day off, so I like his chances for a bounceback in all 4 counting categories. Asdrubal has game, just an unfortunate name. Entering a contract year at 28, he should be out to prove that last year was the aberration. In 2011-12 he averaged 20 HR and 13 SB while batting a respectable .270. Batting 5th or 6th behind some good players who know how to get on base (Kipnis, Santana, Swisher) I like his chances for a big bounceback, maybe even a career year! As a man who totaled 92 RBI in 2011, it wouldn't surprise me to see him approach that total again.

OF - Corey Dickerson, Jayson Werth, Billy Hamilton, Shane Victorino. Question marks surround Dickerson and Hamilton's ability to stay in the lineup all year, so a hot start may be needed for both for them to be worthy of this list. Dickerson brings the rare combo of pop, speed and bat control to the table, and he plays in one of the best ballparks and is in one of the best hitting lineups to showcase his skills. Hamilton is flat out the fastest man on the planet who wears a glove to work, and experts are routinely predicting a 100 SB season, myself included. He could finish the year with 0 RBI and you could still build around 100 stolen bases somehow. Victorino settles into the leadoff spot in Boston, a place that has vaulted Ellsbury to the 1st round of drafts. I'm expecting Ellsbury numbers with half the steals, and at his current ADP I'm loving the bargain. Werth is a big man with a bigger beard and an even bigger stick. He's an all around talent who, at 34, has yet to put it all together for one glorious season. In the last 5 years he has highs of 36 home runs, a .318 average (done last year) and 20 steals. Now potentially batting cleanup (instead of leadoff or second) behind the suddenly hulking Harper, Jayson should be worth reaching for this year.

SP - Tony Cingrani, Johnny Cueto, Francisco Liriano, Julio Teheren, Ubaldo Jiminez. Probably not a lot of surprises here. In fact I'm not even going to say much. My thoughts on Cingrani are here. I'll throw Ubaldo Jiminez into the discussion because he pitched like his hair was on fire last September and some of the other 4 might be inside your top 30. Cueto needs to stay healthy of course, it seems like no one expects him to, so I'll take the risk. Teheren is an ace IMO. This will be his big breakout season and he challenges Kershaw for CY. Liriano because NL hitters haven't learned to lay off his breaking stuff yet.

RP - Jason Grilli, Ernesto Frieri. When choosing a top closer I typically ignore saves and pick the guys who make hitters look silliest. These two possess some of the best swing and miss pitches in the game and will probably combine for more K's than most starting pitchers, which in the end can really add up.

Hitting prospect: Maikel Franco
Pitching prospect: Taijuan Walker

*added a few extra OF/SP since there are so many to cover. Bolded my top 2.
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Re: Become the Expert

Postby Element » Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:38 pm

C - Miguel Montero - He was a virtual lock for 0.280 and 15 homers the past several seasons. He also bats in the middle of the lineup. Getting these kind of RBI's from a catcher spot is a luxury. He was hampered by a back injury last season. I could see him bouncing back nicely. (0.275/17/80/65/0).

C - Wilson Ramos - He had a normal offseason playing Winter ball. No more rehabbing a knee injury or getting kidnapped, I'd rather wait and draft him than Lucroy or Rosario. (0.280/20/68/63/0)

1B - Allen Craig - He's healthy, for now. I'm looking at pure upside here and hoping that he can stay on the field for 140+ games. He's an RBI machine with some pop. I'll buy at the CI spot. (0.284/20/105/77/2)

1B - Ryan Howard - I'm big with the whole 'normal offseason' theory. Howard was able to come back right at the end of last season and then devote his offseason for strength and conditioning, He hasn't looked great in the spring just yet, but I think that the hard work will likely pay off. (0.255/33/110/75/1)

2B - Chase Utley - He had a pretty solid last season year. A healthy Howard in the lineup could help him improve upon it slightly. (0.280/17/90/80/10)

2B - Dan Uggla - Huh?! mmmmmmmmhm!! He hit a miserable 0.179 last season .. and still hit 22 homers. One more time for Mr Uggla. (0.235/34/77/70/1)

3B - Nolan Arenado - I see a guy that makes good contact and plays in Coors. I could see him getting lucky and ending up with a solid season. (0.290/18/85/80/2)

3B - Pablo Sandoval - He's just ranked way too low, IMO. Middle of the order hitter in a walk season. He's having a nice spring too. I'd buy. (0.305/22/90/76/1)

SS - Jimmy Rollins - I don't like the Phillies ... honest. While everyone reaches to find the youthful upside plays, you can sometimes do yourself some good by hoping that a vet has one more left in the tank. (0.255/16/65/80/30)

SS - Brad Miller - Miller makes good contact, has pop and speed. (0.275/15/80/65/15).

OF - Kole Calhoun - Solid hitter with Trout, Pujols and Hamilton behind him in the lineup. He also hit 20 homers between AAA & MLB last season. He's going to see a lot of fastballs. (0.288/20/63/95/8)

OF - Christian Yelich - I love this kid. He has displayed a strong approach at the plate and can obviously run a bit. He has a smooth stroke and once he fills out his 6'4" frame there will be 20+ HR power. Even if he peaks though, the lineup could hold him back in terms of counting stats. (0.285/17/70/80/25)

SP - Danny Salazar - The only thing that concerned me a month ago was if the Indians would let him rack up innings. It sounds like they will. Expect huge things. (13-8, 190 IP, 210 K, 2.90/1.10)

SP - Lance Lynn - Call it a hunch. This season he puts it together for 6 months. (16-8, 210 IP, 205 K, 3.35/1.18)

RP - Ernesto Frieri - I think that the Angels improved (got healthy) this winter. Frieri should see plenty of chances (40 SV, 65 IP, 90 K, 2.75/1.15)

RP - Nate Jones - The White Sox also got better. I could see them challenging the Tigers if their starters hold up. (37 SV, 60 IP, 80 K, 2.40/1.10)
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Re: Become the Expert

Postby toledomudhens » Sat Mar 15, 2014 9:30 pm

Element wrote:Let's have a little exercise. Pick 2 players at every position that currently being ranked outside of the top 10 on most lists (top 30 for OF/SP) that you think have the best chance in finishing inside of the top 5. Assume standard roto format (12 team; BA, R, HR, RBI, SB, ERA, WHIP, W, S, K). Give a name and small write up to back up your selection. I would also like for everyone to name 1 positional prospect and 1 pitching prospect that will have the largest fantasy impact. Again, explain. It would be fun to revisit at the end of the season to see which posters get the closest.

Catchers (2 outside of the top 10; finish in top 5)...gomes and meressco

!st Base (2 outside of the top 10; finish in top 5)...Rizzo and abreu

2nd Base (2 outside of the top 10; finish in top 5)...murphy(again) and Kendrick(lol)

3rd Base (2 outside of the top 10; finish in top 5)...lawrie and arenado

Short Stop (2 outside of the top 10; finish in top 5)...simmons and asdrubal

Outfield (2 outside of the top 30; finish in top 10)...moss and yelich

Starting Pitcher (2 outside of the top 30; finish in top 5)...realisticly nobody from outside 30 is taking a top 5 spot..gonna be tough to unseed those guys, but I would go out on a limb and say moore and cueto

Closers (2 outside of the top 10; finish in top 5)...parnell and brothers

Prospects (1 Pitcher; 1 Position player; biggest fantasy impact -- exclude Tanaka/Abreu)
....Hamilton and Salazar
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Re: Become the Expert

Postby skjelstrom » Sat Mar 15, 2014 10:46 pm

Going to stick with Yahoo ranks for this.

C - Yan Gomes - Solid power to put him in top 5 as long as he can keep him K rate down he should hit for a solid average as well. Also young and can establish himself as long as he gets a solid amount of at bats

1B - Jose Abreu - I'm sold on this guy as far as potential and work ethic. He was better than Cespedes and Puig in Cuba and has shown he is dedicated to learning how to be better and rake in MLB.

2B - Jedd Gyorko - I really want to be different and not say Gyorko but he is the only guy I see outside of the top 10 that could potentially put up top 5 numbers.

3B - Brett Lawrie - His time is now. People have given up on him while he quietly puts up solid numbers, but I think this is the year he breaks out in a big way.

SS - Jimmy Rollins - Being a Phillies fan I am probably biased but people have forgotten him far too fast. He had his worst year ever last year and I think he can bring his average back up and with a little luck can post a solid average. With that his SB will climb up a little more and he still has 15 HR power for sure.

OF - Dominic Brown - Another Philly, but he deserves credit for what he did last year. Everyone is writing him off because most of his production was in one month and the rest he was hardly serviceable. People often forget that around that month he was struggling with different injuries.

OF - Kole Calhoun - Hitting lead off, solid power, has a patient approach. I don't think he can reach top 5.... but solid value nonetheless.

SP - Jeff Samardzija - He has ace stuff but has gotten very unlucky and has struggled at times with control like many young pitchers with ace caliber stuff with little experience. He can put it together, question is will it be this season? I'm betting he does.

SP - Justin Masterson - Few are believers that last year was real, I am one of them. This one is just a hunch.

RP - Glen Perkins - I'm not sure why he isn't in the top 10 to begin with.... this is the yahoo "experts" composite scores so I guess it's not the best.

RP - Jonathan Papelbon - Everyone is concerned with his loss in velocity. He still got the job done and he still will get the job done with a solid K rate to boot.

Prospects:
Hitting - Billy Hamilton.... and Nick Castellanos

Pitching - Yordano Ventura
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Re: Become the Expert

Postby KELLYLEAK » Fri Mar 28, 2014 6:33 pm

C- Evan Gattis- I consider Gattis in the top 10 but since everyone else doesn’t he’s my pick. Gets the full time gig with McCann out of town. And all he does is crush it like a grape- (source Matthew Berry). Power potential 30+ hrs and a lot of rbis in the heart of the Braves lineup once he starts heating up.

C- Jason Castro- former top pick hits for avg, draws walks, and has developing power. Hitting in the heart of the order, even for the lowly Astros, will help his stats.

1B- Jose Abreu- Cuban has tremendous power. Puig and Cespedes rave about him. Won batting titles down in Cuba as well. Hitting in the bandbox in Chicago will be gold for his stats.

1B- Matt Adams- Can hit for power and average. Batting in the middle of a loaded Cards lineup helps too. The million dollar questions- 1. will he platoon with A Craig once O Tavares comes up & 2. can he hit lefties over the course of a season- time will tell.

2B- Aaron Hill- his broken hand is healed & Hill has power potential of 25-30 hrs. Hits in Arizona- loaded lineup, great park, and his manager loves to send the runners. Good rbi and runs stats, hits for avg, sneaky steal potential. Undervalued.

2B- Jedd Gyorko- He was just starting to heat up last year when he got hurt for like 6 weeks. Once he came back he started mashing. Potential for 30-34 hrs even in that cavern known as Petco. Hit for avg in the minors so might improve there too. Lousy SD lineup does him no favors but it’s young and hopefully improving along with young Gyorko.

SS- Xander Bogaerts- Bogaerts has emerging power, can hit for avg, and hitting in Fenway is a good thing, good plate discipline, can run some, and is mature beyond his years. Should have decent stats in good Red Sox lineup. I expect around 20/20.

SS- Brad Miller- former high draft pick has some pop, hits for avg, can run some. Main drawback is the Mariners park and their lineup ain’t the best-even with Cano.

3B-Nick Castellanos- I doubt either of these 3B guys makes top 5 here unless there are a lot of injuries, but here goes. Has gap power and hits in a good Tigers lineup. Plenty of rbi and runs chances. Can’t run much though and hr power is limited right now to around 15-20.

3B- Will Middlebrooks- Has good power 25-30 hr and hits in Fenway. Probably a .250 hitter and won’t walk much. But 3B is weak and in the Red Sox lineup could surprise. However if he slumps like last year Red Sox could trade him.

OF- Billy Hamilton, Josh Hamilton- Note I like both of these guys but both are ranked inside top 30, but since others have mentioned them so will I. If Billy can hit enough & avoid being sent down he will steal a ton- a shot at 140 steals. Both can be either boom or bust. Hitting in Angels lineup- potential is there for huge numbers for Josh. He’s back at the weight he hit at when he was with Texas. Worth the risk.

OF- Kole Calhoun, Alfonso Soriano, Khris Davis- These 3 are definitely outside the top 30. Calhoun did well last year and gets to hit in front of Trout and Pujols- nuff said. Soriano has averaged 30+ hrs the last several years. Hitting in Yankees lineup for a full year will help other stats instead of being stuck on the Cubs- which he spent half of last year. Davis has power and might rack up stats in loaded Brewers lineup. Miller Park good hitters park as well. Just as long as spelling isn’t a category he has sleeper potential.


SP- Sonny Gray- Gray is a youngster on the rise, plays on a good team in a pitchers park. Should get better over time.

SP- Ervin Santana- now in the National League I expect his stats to improve across the board. Braves are a good team- should help win totals.

SP- Yordano Ventura- ace potential earns starting gig in KC. Great stuff.

RP- Jim Johnson- A’s should have plenty of save chances- good pitchers park helps with his gopher-it-is.

RP- John Axford- eh- not my favorite pick, but the Indians are improving so there will be a lot of chances. Ax was tipping his pitches last year- once he stopped he did much better. The question is do you feel lucky- well do ya…punk???

POSITIONAL PROSPECTS- Oscar Tavares, Javier Baez Tie- Tavares is ready and when he comes up in the Cards lineup I expect good power, average, rbi numbers. Baez has awesome power at a weak position. Cubs are training him at 2nd because Starlin Castro is at SS. Once he learns defense at 2B he’ll come up- no one is stopping him at the major league level. If Castro doesn't improve Cubs might trade him to make room for Baez too- either way Baez is coming up. Cubs need bats because their offense is terrible. Cubs lineup not as potent as the Cards though so rbis and runs might be limited for Baez. Still though he'll up by June Super 2 at the latest.

PITCHING PROSPECT- Archie Bradley- if he can improve his control look out.
Last edited by KELLYLEAK on Thu Apr 10, 2014 11:46 pm, edited 7 times in total.
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Re: Become the Expert

Postby cordscords » Sun Mar 30, 2014 5:37 pm

Thought I would double down on this thread. Picking a top 5 player at each position with the best chance to fall out of the top 10, expanding from 5 to 10 for Outfielders and SP to fall out of the top 30.

C- Joe Mauer. 9.1%, 11.4%, 13.7%, 17.5%. His K rate the last 4 years. I'm not saying that trend is going to necessarily stick, but it's a slightly alarming indicator.

1B- Chris Davis. His second half is much more indicative of who the guy really is, which was the #12 1B at the position in 2012.

2B- Robinson Cano. Cano has always hit well on the road, but losing that short porch in left does put a slight dent into his numbers. Couple that with the fact the Mariners lineup is a big step down from the Yankees, along with my gut feeling of a bad luck BABIP year/good run of health coming to an end, Robbie finds himself hovering around #10.

3B- Adrian Beltre. He turns 35 next week, and I'm predicting a sharp age related decline before it actually shows up in his numbers.

SS- Ian Desmond. I still can't shake the fact he's posting the same plate discipline ratios he was posting before he emerged as a fantasy staple. His batted ball data was strong last year, but I believe it was an aberration. I think this 2 year run comes to a screeching halt.

OF- Carlos Gomez. Like Desmond above I understand that late bloomers do exist, but I'm just not buying it.

SP- Felix Hernandez. Rapidly declining velocity, only 2.8 MPH now separates his FB and CH, and you wonder is his workload might start to catch up with him.
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