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A strategy I have never employed, but think will work....

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A strategy I have never employed, but think will work....

Postby jtsandwich » Thu Feb 27, 2014 8:07 pm

I have never been one to spend anything more than $4 on a C in an auction league, bu this year I am seeing a small handful of solid BA C's that I am considering going after and getting 2. I also see a lot of non C's with big HR numbers but very poor BA's. Thus I think a flip is order. Spend more on the C's and find the valued low BA big HR guys.

My theory/strategy is this....Get 2 of the following 5
Molina
Perez
Mauer
LuCroy

They are all clear high BA C's and then turn around and get a couple of the 30+ HR hitters who have .230-.240 avg such as
P. Alverez
Dunn
Trumbo
A. Soriano
R. Howard
Moss
C. Carter

From this you will average out the lopsided HR hitters average with that of 2 very strong C avg's. Many owners will have to pass on the low BA non catcher because they will have low BA C's. They will spend large and possible overpay for the top HR hitters with a solid BA and I thus will get reasonable value on the above mentioned hitters.

Here is something I worked out. Mind you that these are my projected season stats and the auction value I think a player will go for.

Example
Molina
15HR, 70R, 76RBI, 6SB .292BA, $20
Pedro Alvarez
33HR, 70R, 88RBI, 2SB .228BA, $10
COMBINED AVG STATS
24HR, 70R, 82RBI, 4SB .260BA $15 AVG

An alternative to this theory with a cheap C would be
Avila
13HR, 51R, 55RBI, 2SB, .245BA, $6
R. Zimmerman
21HR, 85R, 87RBI, 6SB, .280BA, $24
COMBINED AVG STATS
17HR, 68R, 71RBI, 4SB, .262BA, $15 AVG

2 PLAYER DIFFERENCE WITH SAME $ SPENT IS
+14HR, +4R, +22RBI, O SB, -.002BA


In my example, I do believe that Molina will have more AB that Alvarez and Zimmerman more than Avila, so I considered that a wash.

So I guess my question is why wouldn't it make more sense to go the catcher route, which I have never done, verses punting C's and having to allocate carefully on who you may be able to handle on your team in the field with a poor average. Not to mention that the stats for Molina and Alvarez are simply better.

I welcome your thoughts and criticisms. If there is a hole in my strategy, I would like to hear it from the experts of this forum!.

I should add that this should work best if you buy 2 quality C. I only posted 1 example as I didnt want the thread to be too long.
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Re: A strategy I have never employed, but think will work...

Postby HOOTIE » Thu Feb 27, 2014 8:42 pm

I don't like targeting C, because they only play 120-130 games, unless you get lucky.
I don't like low BA guys in general, no matter the position.
Trumbo might be the exception.
I try to build up the team, with probably the less emphasis on C and RP.
But maybe you are on to something.
Doesn't hurt to try it i guess.
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Re: A strategy I have never employed, but think will work...

Postby jtsandwich » Thu Feb 27, 2014 9:37 pm

Your theory/strategy has been mine for 12 years. This is the a unique year, or at least it appears that way to me. I am going to give it a shot. I will post the team after and see what you think. You should put a day or 2 worth of thought into this, it took me a week to completely wrap my arms around the idea and the possible outcome.

Thanks for the response, I do appreciate it!
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Re: A strategy I have never employed, but think will work...

Postby TheTrith » Thu Feb 27, 2014 9:49 pm

The biggest problem I see with the idea is that you cannot count on other owners to do anything that makes sense. Just because they already have a bunch of low average guys already, does ot ean that they will the guys you want alone.

And the batting average gain you hope to get from your C's is not going to be nearly as effective as it would be at other positions, since with a few exceptions catchers get around 20% fewer PA's
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Re: A strategy I have never employed, but think will work...

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Feb 28, 2014 12:34 am

I generally don't like any rigid strategy when going not a roto draft/auction. It's good to know what bargains can be had late in the draft, like there are a ton of above-replacement SS/2B dirt cheap so don't waste money on them early. But targeting high-BA catchers and low-BA sluggers I think is too narrow of a focus. You should always be flexible while chasing a balanced team and snapping up bargains whenever they present themselves.

As far as the example you used with Molina and Avila, I also have the former as being much more valuable. But they will also likely cost a lot more at the draft. By NFBC draft position, Yadi/Alvarez are 55 & 60, while Avila/Zimm are 183/45. So it's not really a good comp. A better comp would be Yadi/Alvarez (55/60) vs McCann/Gordon (58/67). The cost for each pair is about the same, and the production might even favour the low-BA catcher/high BA outfielder.
Last edited by Skin Blues on Fri Feb 28, 2014 1:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: A strategy I have never employed, but think will work...

Postby jtsandwich » Fri Feb 28, 2014 1:01 am

Skin, I agree, don't over commit to a strategy with a narrow focus. But I think with 5 catchers to focus a direction and 10-14 other low average bats that I will be able to work through the auction with the freedom to grab deals when I see them.

Thank you for the comment!
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Re: A strategy I have never employed, but think will work...

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Feb 28, 2014 1:06 am

jtsandwich wrote:Skin, I agree, don't over commit to a strategy with a narrow focus. But I think with 5 catchers to focus a direction and 10-14 other low average bats that I will be able to work through the auction with the freedom to grab deals when I see them.

Thank you for the comment!

Certainly, if high-BA catchers and low-BA fielders are being under-rated, then by all means target them. I don't really see that as the case, though. I edited my first response to show how it could go the other way.
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Re: A strategy I have never employed, but think will work...

Postby jtsandwich » Fri Feb 28, 2014 1:43 am

Thanks again Skin. That is the insight I am looking for and I will dive into it even deeper this weekend. If I find that it is a bad stategy, I will not do it.
Let me know if I can be of any help, I always WHIR!
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Re: A strategy I have never employed, but think will work...

Postby J35J » Fri Feb 28, 2014 10:25 am

I don't really ever do strategies either...just draft the best players and try to get as balanced as I can.

With that said, as far as what you are talking about, it doesn't really matter where you get your stats as long as you get em. So if you want a high BA/low HR catcher and a low BA/high HR third baseman, go for it.
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Re: A strategy I have never employed, but think will work...

Postby jtsandwich » Fri Feb 28, 2014 11:51 am

Thanks J35J. Do note that the main reason for this "strategy" is I believe I can get the same stats, or even better, from higher priced C's and lower priced, lower BA field player for a lower overall cost while not getting hurt in BA. Thus having extra auction money to complete a better overall team.

Thanks again!
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