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Shelby Miller - ceiling?

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Shelby Miller - ceiling?

Postby hwell44 » Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:34 pm

Hey guys. Just wanted to get some opinions on Shelby Miller. What's his ceiling? Ace, #2 SP, lower?

I have him in a keeper league, and while people are high on him, it seems that most are not AS high as last year. Thanks!
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Re: Shelby Miller - ceiling?

Postby J35J » Mon Feb 24, 2014 3:27 pm

To me he's a question mark in terms of is he going to be an ace or a #3. He's got the velocity you like to see. But the real questions is where he ends up with his command...he's bordering on 3 per 9...it was 2.49BB/9 in the first half but dropped to 3.67BB/9 in the second half....which is he going to be? He was generally above 3 coming up through the minors. Another question mark is an out pitch...or a swing and miss pitch. Seems he doesn't really have a slider and is mostly just a fastball/curveball guy and mixes in a change....it's not often those are swing and miss pitches and his 9% SWSTR% reflects that.

Sure, he's got ace potential in him...to be honest there are a lot of young pitchers with electric stuff that have ace potential but being an ace can be just as much about your mental fortitude as it does your stuff. If I had to guess, I think he'll fall short of being an ace and will be a #2-#3
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Re: Shelby Miller - ceiling?

Postby Pogotheostrich » Mon Feb 24, 2014 4:08 pm

To be an ace he needs a 3rd pitch and I'm a little concerned about his stamina. He went less than 6 inning per start last year and seemed to tire in the 2nd half of the season.
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Re: Shelby Miller - ceiling?

Postby Izenhart » Mon Feb 24, 2014 5:06 pm

I think his 1st half stats are the abbreation and he's more of a 3.50/1.30 pitcher with a K per IP, aka Yovanni Gallardo when he was useful. His ceiling is him figuring out an out pitch and being more efficient with his pitches/ip. I expect regression this season from him. I'd like to see a decent 1st half followed up by a better 2nd half before I'm ready to pick him where his ADP is.
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Re: Shelby Miller - ceiling?

Postby rjforlife » Mon Feb 24, 2014 5:19 pm

viewtopic.php?t=458390&hilit=foul+balls&start=60

Pages 7/8 of this thread have so nice bits about Shelby Miller and foul balls, and the next week of daily threads also contain many quips about foul balls, jokes at my expense. Somewhat funny if you have the time.

Regardless, I think Shelby's ceiling is very high, but he needs a lot of work to get there. He has a great base of fastball/change, but he needs to develop that third pitch, as many have said, to get people to swing and miss instead of just FOULING pitches off. The good news is that pitchers can learn more pitches, and working with Wainwright could really help him since Waino has the best curve in baseball. I'd say he will be solid in 2014, but 2015 and on he will improve. In a keeper I'd love to have him, for a 2014 redraft he's OK for me.
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Re: Shelby Miller - ceiling?

Postby Element » Mon Feb 24, 2014 8:04 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:To be an ace he needs a 3rd pitch


This is where it starts and stops for me. I'd even take a step further and say that he needs that third pitch to even remain a starter. I could easily see him taking there Jeremy Bonderman career path if he cannot seem to master a third offering.
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Re: Shelby Miller - ceiling?

Postby HighHeater » Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:29 am

I like Miller but the guy has some funky mechanics that look really prone to shoulder injuries... I saw a picture of him in a thread raising the same questions with his shoulder soreness. (just google it im not going to advertise) The guy has his entire hand inverted with the thumb pointing down vertically going forward... im no doc but that doesn't look "normal" to me. He just seems like an injury waiting to happen... I just get thus eerily Tommy Hansen feel for the kid (rightfully or not).
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Re: Shelby Miller - ceiling?

Postby hot4tx » Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:55 am

I think his ceiling is very high - elite fantasy pitcher type - but I agree with some others that say he needs work. Furthermore the way he tired last year has me expecting a bit of a down year for him this year. I'm my keeper league I'm hoping he has a bit of a down year so I can send a trade offer late in the year or in the offseason next year.

I guess "hoping" is the wrong word here - let's say I wish the best for the kid but think there's a high enough probability that I'll be able to buy him at a discount later that I'm willing to take the chance and wait instead of trying to acquire him right now. }:-)
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