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How important is AVG in h2h

PostPosted: Sun Feb 23, 2014 11:57 am
by colt4523
I am having a small disagreement with my co-owner about the importance of avg in a h2h format. I believe in a weekly h2h 6x6 matchup, avg for 1 players is not as important as the rest of his counting stats. The player in question is Chris Carter. I believe his 25+ hrs are far more beneficial than his 220 average is detrimental to your team over the course of the year...thoughts?

Re: How important is AVG in h2h

PostPosted: Sun Feb 23, 2014 12:51 pm
by rjforlife
AVG is overrated in H2H. On any given week, even a .228 hitter can hit .300, and vice versa. I wouldn't totally ignore the category, but guys with low AVG should get a bump in value in H2H vs. Roto leagues.

Re: How important is AVG in h2h

PostPosted: Sun Feb 23, 2014 3:35 pm
by J35J
rjforlife wrote:AVG is overrated in H2H. On any given week, even a .228 hitter can hit .300, and vice versa. I wouldn't totally ignore the category, but guys with low AVG should get a bump in value in H2H vs. Roto leagues.


That .228 hitter may only have 1 or 2 weeks at .300 though....while that .310 hitter will have 1 or 2 weeks at .210....of course that's a slight exaggeration. But the same can be said for the 40hr guy...there will be some weeks he doesn't hit a single home run. That 15hr guy could out homer the 40hr guy in a couple of weeks. Hell, you could have a guy hit 30hr on a year but get out homered in more weeks than a 15hr guy...see Dominic Brown for example...he did all his damage in just a few weeks....similar to Justin Upton. Same with SB....I'm sure there will be a couple of weeks in the season where Hamilton doesn't steal a bag. In other words...all stats will come and go, be up and down...it's the nature of a 6 month long baseball season.

Re: How important is AVG in h2h

PostPosted: Sun Feb 23, 2014 5:00 pm
by rjforlife
Ok, I'll admit I just hate paying for average. There, I said it.

Re: How important is AVG in h2h

PostPosted: Sun Feb 23, 2014 5:15 pm
by ayebatter
colt4523 wrote:I am having a small disagreement with my co-owner about the importance of avg in a h2h format. I believe in a weekly h2h 6x6 matchup, avg for 1 players is not as important as the rest of his counting stats. The player in question is Chris Carter. I believe his 25+ hrs are far more beneficial than his 220 average is detrimental to your team over the course of the year...thoughts?


Even if it's only 1 HR an average week (26 week season)a guys weekly batting average only directly affects that 1 stat - average, the 1 HR a week at least adds another rbi/run.

Re: How important is AVG in h2h

PostPosted: Sun Feb 23, 2014 5:21 pm
by TheTrith
Average is easily the most volatile hitting stat in H2H.
I talked about this in the Pedroia/Kipnis discussion a bit, but basically there is not a ton of correlation between overall team batting average on the year, and weekly wins for batting average. At least not nearly as much correlation as there is for the other 5x5 stats.
Weekly averages fluctuate so much that even the team with the highest team average on the season is fairly likely to lose average as many times as a the guys in the middle of the pack.

In roto average is much more important to consider.

Re: How important is AVG in h2h

PostPosted: Sun Feb 23, 2014 9:55 pm
by Skin Blues
There is so much nonsense I read about H2H strategy. It's good to see TheTrith using an empirical approach. You'd need a lot of data to make it statistically significant, but it'd be an interesting study if you can link it. Like, a team that is X standard deviations above the mean in average only wins 55% of the weeks, but a team X standard deviations above the mean in Runs wins 75% of the weeks. If anybody has a study done on that I'd like to read it, or at least a pool of data big enough that I could run one on it.

I will say though, that as far as predictability goes, average is fourth in the pecking order behind HR, SB, (-large gap-) and RBI, in that order. Runs are least predictable. Intuitively, I don't see why average, where events occur one at-bat at a time spread out evenly over a week, would be more volatile than something like RBI, which come in bunches and have much fewer occurrences per week. But like I said, we'd need actual data to confirm it either way.