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Valuation Website

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Valuation Website

Postby bcrossman » Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:30 pm

Hi, with lastplayerpicked going down, I've put together an interactive website that provides similar functionality. I had developed an excel file that preformed a similar process as lastplayerpicked (iterative z-score above replacement) and I've now turned that into an interactive website. I still need to add AL/NL only splits and probably a few other projection systems but I think it is a fairly thorough and robust pricing model based on z-scores (as compared to Standard Gain Points). I'd love any suggestions or requests people have and if the website is down from time to time I'm likely tinkering with it (for instance my projections use Fangraphs playing time estimates and I think they are too aggressive). The forum is limiting my ability to post the site as a link but it is valuation.bearfbv .c om)
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Re: Valuation Website

Postby goldtop » Sat Feb 22, 2014 12:42 am

Thanks for the post/link. Pretty shocked by the results. I put in HR, RBI, AVG, SO and SB. Puig was projected 4th best overall and better than Goldy?
You project Cain's WHIP at 1.24 and Jordan Zimmerman's at 1.21? A little on the high side I think.
A project like this is a ton of work and there's useful info to be found within. Hope it doesn't read that I'm belittling your efforts :)
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Re: Valuation Website

Postby bcrossman » Sat Feb 22, 2014 12:54 am

No, no offense taken at all. The Puig one jumped at to me also. What I'm trying to figure out is if it is a result of the Projections or the valuation. i.e. if you buy the projections, are Puig's 9 more SBs worth more than Gold's 3 more HR's and 11 more Runs+RBI's. It is probably pretty close. As for the projections on Cain and Zimmerman, those should come straight from Steamer's Fangraphs projections. Not to toot my own horn, but if you felt those were high projections, you might agree more with the Bear projections, which are my own.
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Re: Valuation Website

Postby goldtop » Sat Feb 22, 2014 1:00 am

bcrossman wrote:No, no offense taken at all. The Puig one jumped at to me also. What I'm trying to figure out is if it is a result of the Projections or the valuation. i.e. if you buy the projections, are Puig's 9 more SBs worth more than Gold's 3 more HR's and 11 more Runs+RBI's. It is probably pretty close. As for the projections on Cain and Zimmerman, those should come straight from Steamer's Fangraphs projections. Not to toot my own horn, but if you felt those were high projections, you might agree more with the Bear projections, which are my own.


Nice! I'll take a closer look.
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Re: Valuation Website

Postby SpecialFNK » Sat Feb 22, 2014 1:27 am

I haven't taken that much of a look yet, but I will, so thanks for the link.
Puig jumped out at me too. 666 PA, OMG the Anti Christ of MLB!
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Re: Valuation Website

Postby bcrossman » Sat Feb 22, 2014 7:21 am

It's an Omen. In all seriousness, playing time forecasts are the issue, I think both mine and Steamers are too aggressive and I'll probably scale mine back if I can run some regressions today.
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Re: Valuation Website

Postby Dugout Diamonds » Sun Feb 23, 2014 3:26 pm

Do you, or will you, post any projections for points leagues? I don't seem to find many sites that project pts.
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Re: Valuation Website

Postby J35J » Sun Feb 23, 2014 3:37 pm

Dugout Diamonds wrote:Do you, or will you, post any projections for points leagues? I don't seem to find many sites that project pts.


If you have a set of projections then you have all you need for a points league. Just put those projections in a spreadsheet....calculate your points scoring into those projections and done. Points leagues are the easiest thing in the world to get a ranking from as long as you have projections in front of you.
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Re: Valuation Website

Postby bcrossman » Sun Feb 23, 2014 3:43 pm

Yep, he's right, points leagues take out a lot of the complexity with valuation since the points allow you to produce 1 total number of expected points for each player. If you then rank them by position, you can determine the points over replacement level points and use that number to draft by (or pay for in an auction league).
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Re: Valuation Website

Postby Dugout Diamonds » Sun Feb 23, 2014 4:28 pm

Sounds easy, unless you don't know how to do a spreadsheet. :-S I guess I need to learn how to make one, and how to load a set of projections into it. Maybe I can learn that before next season.
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