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Cafe Consensus Rankings: 25th Pick

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Who is the 25th overall pick?

Justin Upton
3
12%
Matt Holliday
0
No votes
Alex Rios
1
4%
Dustin Pedroia
7
27%
Jose Reyes
1
4%
Buster Posey
0
No votes
Stephen Strasburg
0
No votes
Freddie Freeman
6
23%
Giancarlo Stanton
5
19%
Albert Pujols
3
12%
 
Total votes : 26

Cafe Consensus Rankings: 25th Pick

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Feb 20, 2014 9:28 pm

Kipnis goes 24th and it's hard to blame people for taking a potential 20/30 2B late in the second round. After a monster first half that had him challenging Cano for top 2B honors, Kipnis fell apart in the second half which may be why he can be had this late at all. If he's able to sustain his first half production throughout the season he'd be a first round pick, but there is some risk in the pick.

Fans can take solace in the fact that his BB% and K% were almost identical in the first and second half as was his batted ball profile (LD/GB/FB). However, not everything points to a return to his first half success. His drop in production came due to expected regression in both his BABIP and HR/FB. The .300 he hit in the first half seems fluky and it's tough to expect an average higher than .270 going forward (due to his K%). His power should bounce back some, but most likely not to the first half levels. Something in the 15-20 range seems reasonable. A lot of his value going forward is tied to him maintaining the 30 or so stolen bases he's racked up the last two years. His minor league track record didn't paint him as much of a stolen base threat, but his SB% the last couple of years has been quite good (81%) so I would assume we can see another 25 SB or so from him.

While I can see the appeal and hope that he can run out a full season of his first half numbers, I'm finding it difficult to take him over many of the players available at this point. He's a solid option, but just like the possible reward of a full season of his first half numbers, there's some risk that he could put up a full season of his second half numbers. We'll likely see something in between, but I'm not sure if it's good enough for a second round pick.

Taken so far:
1. Mike Trout, OF
2. Miguel Cabrera, 3B
3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
4. Andrew McCutchen, OF
5. Carlos Gonzalez, OF
6. Ryan Braun, OF
7. Robinson Cano, 2B
8. Adam Jones, OF
9. Chris Davis, 1B
10. Clayton Kershaw, SP
11. Hanley Ramirez, SS
12. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/3B
13. Prince Fielder, 1B
14. Joey Votto, 1B
15. Bryce Harper, OF
16. Troy Tulowitzki, SS
17. Adrian Beltre, 3B
18. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF
19. Evan Longoria, 3B
20. David Wright, 3B
21. Yasiel Puig, OF
22. Carlos Gomez, OF
23. Yu Darvish, SP
24. Jason Kipnis, 2B
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Re: Cafe Consensus Rankings: 25th Pick

Postby TheTrith » Thu Feb 20, 2014 9:49 pm

Im going Freeman here, but I can see a legit case to be made for Stanton, Pedroia, and Upton in the early 3rd.
I dont really like any pitching here unless Yu falls, and the other hitters either have lowish ceilings or serious health questions.

(disclaimer - i actually like Holliday a lot more than several of these choices, but no way I can justify taking him anywhere in the 3rd when you can get him nearly 100% of the time in the 4th, and very often in the 5th. Hes been around at pick #44 or later in every single real draft and mock I have done this year)
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Re: Cafe Consensus Rankings: 25th Pick

Postby BronXBombers51 » Thu Feb 20, 2014 9:52 pm

I've got Pedroia over Kipnis.
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Re: Cafe Consensus Rankings: 25th Pick

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Feb 20, 2014 10:01 pm

BronXBombers51 wrote:I've got Pedroia over Kipnis.


Same
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Re: Cafe Consensus Rankings: 25th Pick

Postby J35J » Thu Feb 20, 2014 11:27 pm

GiantsFan14 wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:I've got Pedroia over Kipnis.


Same


Me Too. I think I'll gamble on Upton over both though. Particularly in the 5OF leagues I play in.
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Re: Cafe Consensus Rankings: 25th Pick

Postby Brainstorm » Thu Feb 20, 2014 11:54 pm

No love for Freeman here? The top end 1B dry up quick and he's definitely in that group.
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Re: Cafe Consensus Rankings: 25th Pick

Postby TheTrith » Fri Feb 21, 2014 12:33 am

I think Pedroia is pretty underrated this year, and would be happy to have him on any of my teams, but I would still rather have Kipnis given a choice.
Since 2011 Kipnis has more HRs and just about the same number of SB's.
Their walk rates are identical.
Pedroia has scored 75 more runs and has about 60 more RBI but keep in mind Pedroia has 600 more ABs in that time due to Kipnis getting called up late in 2011.
So basically only about 140 more R+RBI over a full seasons worth of extra PA's.
The only clear advantage Pedroia has is in plate discipline, as he strikes out about half as often as Kipnis.

However, Kipnis has shown improvement over each of the past 2 years in all the key metrics, and Pedroia is going to decline at some point in the near future, and he has already shown a propensity to get hurt. And we know the best prognosticator of future injury, is past injury . For players with very similar 2014 projections, I will take the guy who has a much better shot at beating the projections in counting stats, and has a real chance to improve his BB and K rates, rather than the older player who is more likely to play hurt or miss time due to injury, and who is not likely to show much improvement in any area at this point in his career.


edit - just wanted to also point out that Pedroia has never reached 30 SB, and has only reached 17 HR twice in his career. Kipnis has already hit 17 in his 2nd full season, and has reached 30 steals in each of the past 2 years. 45 HR+SB is close to Kipnis floor, but Pedroias ceiling.
Last edited by TheTrith on Fri Feb 21, 2014 12:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Cafe Consensus Rankings: 25th Pick

Postby GiantsFan14 » Fri Feb 21, 2014 12:36 am

I also expect Pedroia will have about 25-30 pts of average on kipnis which is pretty considerable.
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Re: Cafe Consensus Rankings: 25th Pick

Postby TheTrith » Fri Feb 21, 2014 1:15 am

Thats true, he has a signifigant edge in BA.
Average is pretty volatile though, so I usually put a bit less weight on it than counting stats.


edit - I should have been a bit more specific.
In H2H leagues the "batting average" stat has the lowest correlation between year long stat total, and number of weekly wins in the specific category.
In other words, even if you crush the league in overall batting average total, you still are still pretty likely to lose the weekly batting average stat nearly 50% of the time... far more often than if you have an equally high total of HR, RBI, SB, or R
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Re: Cafe Consensus Rankings: 25th Pick

Postby GiantsFan14 » Fri Feb 21, 2014 3:15 am

TheTrith wrote:edit - I should have been a bit more specific.
In H2H leagues the "batting average" stat has the lowest correlation between year long stat total, and number of weekly wins in the specific category.
In other words, even if you crush the league in overall batting average total, you still are still pretty likely to lose the weekly batting average stat nearly 50% of the time... far more often than if you have an equally high total of HR, RBI, SB, or R


I agree that BA is one of the most variable stats and a bit less emphasis should be put on it in relation to the counting categories. However, nobody here should be voting as if it's a H2H league.
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