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Re: Billy Hamilton

PostPosted: Thu Feb 20, 2014 7:38 pm
by J35J
kab21 wrote:As a rookie I don't think you should view it as even if he has a .300 OBP. I think .300 OBP is the optimistic projection for his rookie season and just forget about .360 OBP like he had in the minors. He has zero power and he strikes out a lot. I honestly have no idea why MiLB pitchers were walking him. MLB pitchers won't be giving him free passes.

I think some are awfully dismissive how important technique is. Speed helps but many gifted athletes have been defensive trainwrecks as young players. It's likely that he does alright but let's not consider his defense a plus yet. If he is hitting .250/.300/.330 then it might be tough to keep him in the lineup. And there is downside to those numbers. I have had the displeasure of watching Carlos Gomez and Aaron Hicks fall apart offensively as young players.


+1

Re: Billy Hamilton

PostPosted: Thu Feb 20, 2014 9:40 pm
by TheTrith
Some young guys you gamble on early in the draft because they have potential to contribute in multiple categories and might even be the piece that brings home the championship for you.
Im thinking of guys like Marte, Myers, Abreu, Bogaerts, Tanaka, Wacha, Cole - and there are several more but thats who I think of off the top of my head.

Billy Hamilton is not one of those guys.
In his best case scenario for 5x5, he wins you 1 category, is nuetral or slightly above average in 1 category, and actively hurts you in 3 categories.
His downside is spending more time in AAA than in Cinci.
How does that justify a price tag thats more expensive than the class of player I mentioned above?

If you can keep him cheap, great. By all means do so in a hearbeat.
But trying to target him in drafts or auctions? I will pass every single time.

Re: Billy Hamilton

PostPosted: Thu Feb 20, 2014 9:45 pm
by jfg
Izenhart wrote:
You'd still need steals if you're looking for a 1st place finish in the category and since he's a one category player and you can't afford another category killer like him, you probably will have to get those extra steals from guys who are five category players at the beginning of the draft. I think that's my biggest concern about Hamilton, you have to build your team around him and that's not something I want to do with a 5th-6th round pick. I really think he will be the player people are projecting this year with around 75 steals, but those steals end up costing more than just the pick you used to take him.


Well to be fair whats the difference in Billy Hamilton's 5 category projections VS Starling Marte, who typically goes a round or two before him? Similar value to me.[/quote]

I wouldn't touch Marte that early either but he does give you manageable numbers in every category except RBI where Hamilton is going to be below average-terrible in every other category. I do get the value you speak of though when you consider how many more steals he'll bring to the table. It also depends on how you think Marte will hit for average this year, because if he can hit .280 again, he's far more valuable than Hamilton.

Re: Billy Hamilton

PostPosted: Fri Feb 21, 2014 12:00 am
by Brainstorm
How can anyone say he's a safe bet to do anything here? There's posts saying 70+ steals is the floor for this guy. Completely unreasonable expectations loom.

The Dee Gordon comparison is unfair, that's correct. Because he was WORSE at getting on base in the minors than Dee Gordon was. I heard a guy on the radio the other day say they're HOPING he'll .230. .230??? The % of times he'll have to steal getting on base, and the success rate he'll need to have in a scenario like that all scream out disappointment in this guy.

Can he eventually learn how to hit a little better and become this huge speedster everyone expects? Sure, but it's going to take time. And even when he does, I think Michael Bourn's peak is more likely than 80-100 steals. Not to say there's anything wrong with that, but count me out as one of the owners using my 5th or 6th round pick on Hamilton when there's plenty of reliable, proven players available at that time.

Re: Billy Hamilton

PostPosted: Fri Feb 21, 2014 12:52 am
by Tavish
Brainstorm wrote:The % of times he'll have to steal getting on base, and the success rate he'll need to have in a scenario like that all scream out disappointment in this guy.

I don't think the amount of times he will have to attempt to steal or the success rate is much of a concern. If he is on the roster he is going to get chances. Of course it is going to take some sort of respectable OBP for him to live up to people's dreams of 100+ SB numbers, but he could be a part-time starter with a sub .300 OBP and still get 70+ chances.

Re: Billy Hamilton

PostPosted: Fri Feb 21, 2014 1:22 am
by TheTrith
Thats just the thing though... who is really going to keep him in their lineup on days hes not even starting?
Even if he does manage to hit enough to start say 4-5 times a week, a significant % of his attempts will still come as a pinch runner, when noboy has him in their lineups.

I guess in weekly leagues thats not much of an issue, (aside from the fact that youd be getting zeros in all the other categories a couple times per week.)

Re: Billy Hamilton

PostPosted: Fri Feb 21, 2014 1:52 am
by jfg
TheTrith wrote:Thats just the thing though... who is really going to keep him in their lineup on days hes not even starting?
Even if he does manage to hit enough to start say 4-5 times a week, a significant % of his attempts will still come as a pinch runner, when noboy has him in their lineups.

I guess in weekly leagues thats not much of an issue, (aside from the fact that youd be getting zeros in all the other categories a couple times per week.)


Actually, that would be preferable in roto daily leagues or really any league. Keeps him from lowering your average while still getting the steals. That's how he racked them up last year in his limited time, I'd have no problem of keeping him in the lineup whenever the Reds are playing starting or not. Nobody is drafting him for anything but steals so if he can get those 70+ steals with less time in the batters box, that's a win I think if you can get him in the 8th round or so. Anything before that and you're hoping he can become a hitter as well, and that's probably not going to happen. But, I don't see any scenario where he's not on the Reds roster stealing bases.

Re: Billy Hamilton

PostPosted: Fri Feb 21, 2014 2:07 am
by kab21
jfg wrote:
TheTrith wrote:Thats just the thing though... who is really going to keep him in their lineup on days hes not even starting?
Even if he does manage to hit enough to start say 4-5 times a week, a significant % of his attempts will still come as a pinch runner, when noboy has him in their lineups.

I guess in weekly leagues thats not much of an issue, (aside from the fact that youd be getting zeros in all the other categories a couple times per week.)


Actually, that would be preferable in roto daily leagues or really any league. Keeps him from lowering your average while still getting the steals. That's how he racked them up last year in his limited time, I'd have no problem of keeping him in the lineup whenever the Reds are playing starting or not. Nobody is drafting him for anything but steals so if he can get those 70+ steals with less time in the batters box, that's a win I think if you can get him in the 8th round or so. Anything before that and you're hoping he can become a hitter as well, and that's probably not going to happen. But, I don't see any scenario where he's not on the Reds roster stealing bases.


This is actually the worst case scenario for a 5th/6th rd pick. It's one thing to take a hit in the other counting stats and average but basically becoming a non-contributor is an awful scenario. I'm not spending a pick that early (or even in the top 150) that ends up with a .230 avg, 25RBI's, 0 HR's, 60-80R's and 60+ SB's. At least a Brett Gardner type chips in 5-10 HR's, hits .270 with 40-50 RBI's.

Re: Billy Hamilton

PostPosted: Fri Feb 21, 2014 3:25 am
by jfg
Yeah, that's what I was saying. 5th-6th round is way too high of a pick to spend on elite steals, but once you get into the 8th-9th round range I can see the value even if he is getting those steals at the expense of every other category.

Re: Billy Hamilton

PostPosted: Fri Feb 21, 2014 12:00 pm
by lastingsgriller
ayebatter wrote:
apz wrote:I just took him in the 8th round in the cafe Noobs league; 103rd pick overall. Figured he's worth a shot there. I like having a few young guys with potential to keep things interesting. :-)



I would have had to make that pick too, just glad the opportunity didn't present itself.



yep. I hate in in RD 5/6 where I've seen him go. I like him a lot more at 103.