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"Winning Fantasy Baseball," by Larry Schechter

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Re: "Winning Fantasy Baseball," by Larry Schechter

Postby goldtop » Fri Feb 14, 2014 6:10 pm

How would you curve players value for a snake draft with a large bench? Since some teams may fill it with SP and others go heavy on hitting it is impossible to determine.
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Re: "Winning Fantasy Baseball," by Larry Schechter

Postby diti51 » Fri Feb 14, 2014 11:56 pm

Depends on type of league. I am in head to head league so used projections for players and scores for a season. Then applied to his curved approach to create a "value" for each player for respective position.

We get 15 pts for wins for pitchers, so pitchers were ridiculously high. Will then use his draft flow chart with ADP date when I get closer to my draft date and go from there.

Using ADP data keeps/helps me from drafting too many pitchers too early.

Great book. Always looking for an edge and lots of pearls of wisdom. Applicable to any sport as well with regards to draft and strategy, especially for auction leagues.
12 tm H2H pts lg (W=10, S=7, L= -2)
C:Vogt
1B:Votto
2B:Odor
SS:Bogaerts
3B:Moustakas
OF:JUpton,Betts,Puig,Dickerson,Ozuna,Peralta,DSantana
SP:Kershaw,Pineda,CRodon,Samardzija,Syndergaard,Jungmaan,JRoss,Gausman
RP:AMiller,FRod
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Re: "Winning Fantasy Baseball," by Larry Schechter

Postby Skin Blues » Sat Feb 15, 2014 11:01 am

Nerfherders wrote:So if a hitter plays 142 games, he gets credit for what he did in those 142 games, but the other 20 games gets replacement value stats, because you will have to replace him in the lineup, most likely with a player who is playing at that 7th place level.

This is exactly how I make my player values. It's a big reason why some people undervalue injury prone players; they only look at projected total stats, without factoring in that all of those missed games, you can use a replacement player. It's important to include these factors in dollar value rankings, and not just try to mentally adjust for it. Same theory applies to relief pitchers, although a little bit differently. Bottom line: rank players based on value per GP (or IP), not by value per total season.
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Re: "Winning Fantasy Baseball," by Larry Schechter

Postby goldtop » Sat Feb 15, 2014 3:39 pm

diti51 wrote:Depends on type of league. I am in head to head league so used projections for players and scores for a season. Then applied to his curved approach to create a "value" for each player for respective position.

We get 15 pts for wins for pitchers, so pitchers were ridiculously high. Will then use his draft flow chart with ADP date when I get closer to my draft date and go from there.

Using ADP data keeps/helps me from drafting too many pitchers too early.

Great book. Always looking for an edge and lots of pearls of wisdom. Applicable to any sport as well with regards to draft and strategy, especially for auction leagues.


Thanks for the reply, but I think my first post was unclear. I am in a shallow 12 team H2H snake draft with 108 bats, 84 pitchers and 96 bench players (8 bench per team).
I could be drafting, in theory, in a pool of 132 outfielders and 84 pitchers OR 36 outfielders and 180 pitchers!! How would you choose to curve these players since you can't accurately identify the player pool?
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Re: "Winning Fantasy Baseball," by Larry Schechter

Postby rjforlife » Sat Feb 15, 2014 4:21 pm

You can only curve the positions you know, the starters. None of his valuation formulas or ideas really address the issues of a bench. He casually mentions "reserve" drafts here and there, but since his leagues are often little to no bench, he doesn't include those in his work, especially since like you said, it's impossible to know what positions they will be. Focus on starters, then just do what you can for the bench slots.
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Re: "Winning Fantasy Baseball," by Larry Schechter

Postby BronXBombers51 » Wed Feb 19, 2014 1:25 am

Does anyone know how you're supposed to curve positions (catchers) in a mixed-league auction format?

Since Schechter uses mono-league auction values for his mixed league auction, I create AL and NL player pools. The problem I run into is that my AL catcher pool needs to be curved (I need to manually add catchers to the pool, thus having to curve the auction price for AL catchers upwards.) But enough catchers make the cut in NL, so no curve is needed. This is fine if I'm using the values for AL or NL-only leagues, but when I combine the pools for a mixed league, I wind up with inconsistent rankings. For instance, Joe Mauer (AL) has a curve applied to him and his value is greater than Buster Posey (NL), who has no curve, even though Posey's projected stats are better.

If I hold off on curving the AL players and try to curve all catchers together after both the AL and NL player pools are combined, I still get weird results because AL catchers are using a different formula than NL catchers. I understand his "mono-league values for mixed-auctions" in theory, but it's kind of confusing in application.
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Re: "Winning Fantasy Baseball," by Larry Schechter

Postby TheTrith » Wed Feb 19, 2014 1:46 am

Im only a few chapters in and so far his #1 piece of advice is to go for value value value, regardless of position. He stresses taking ANY player that is up for auction if its possible to get them for less than your projected value, and never spending a dollar more than projected value on any player.
Im very curious to see how he addresses balancing that idea, while ensuring that you use your entire auction budget (and at the same time maximizing your starting lineup production)

For example what if the first 8 players nominated are all $10-15 players, and you end up winning all of them for $3-4 under their expected value?
Right off the bat you are in a spot where your roster is ~1/3 full, and you are far below budget.
Do you then wait for top tier high dollar players to be nominated and make sure you win one or more? What if more "values" keep coming up?
At what point do you pass on the value deals in order to save money for the elite talent?
Because even if you spend several dollars less than projected value on every single roster spot, if you have lots of money left over after the draft that likely means 1) you have little to no elite talent and 2) you are not going to win your league.

I didnt word that very well, but hopefully you guys understand the issue Im wrestling with.
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Re: "Winning Fantasy Baseball," by Larry Schechter

Postby BronXBombers51 » Wed Feb 19, 2014 1:57 am

TheTrith wrote:Im only a few chapters in and so far his #1 piece of advice is to go for value value value, regardless of position. He stresses taking ANY player that is up for auction if its possible to get them for less than your projected value, and never spending a dollar more than projected value on any player.
Im very curious to see how he addresses balancing that idea, while ensuring that you use your entire auction budget (and at the same time maximizing your starting lineup production)

For example what if the first 8 players nominated are all $10-15 players, and you end up winning all of them for $3-4 under their expected value?
Right off the bat you are in a spot where your roster is ~1/3 full, and you are far below budget.
Do you then wait for top tier high dollar players to be nominated and make sure you win one or more? What if more "values" keep coming up?
At what point do you pass on the value deals in order to save money for the elite talent?
Because even if you spend several dollars less than projected value on every single roster spot, if you have lots of money left over after the draft that likely means 1) you have little to no elite talent and 2) you are not going to win your league.

I didnt word that very well, but hopefully you guys understand the issue Im wrestling with.


Keep reading. He definitely addresses both the balance of the team and how it's sometimes necessary to let bargains go simply because you don't have room for them. He shares a worksheet he uses that lists off the 14 hitter slots and a pre-determined dollar figure for each (1 $35 player, 1 $27 player, $1 $20 player, etc.) where he uses his entire hitting budget. If he over or under-spends a certain slot, he re-allocates the saved or lost money to a different slot. It should all make sense when you read through those parts of the book.
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Re: "Winning Fantasy Baseball," by Larry Schechter

Postby TheTrith » Wed Feb 19, 2014 2:41 am

BronXBombers51 wrote:
TheTrith wrote:Im only a few chapters in and so far his #1 piece of advice is to go for value value value, regardless of position. He stresses taking ANY player that is up for auction if its possible to get them for less than your projected value, and never spending a dollar more than projected value on any player.
Im very curious to see how he addresses balancing that idea, while ensuring that you use your entire auction budget (and at the same time maximizing your starting lineup production)

For example what if the first 8 players nominated are all $10-15 players, and you end up winning all of them for $3-4 under their expected value?
Right off the bat you are in a spot where your roster is ~1/3 full, and you are far below budget.
Do you then wait for top tier high dollar players to be nominated and make sure you win one or more? What if more "values" keep coming up?
At what point do you pass on the value deals in order to save money for the elite talent?
Because even if you spend several dollars less than projected value on every single roster spot, if you have lots of money left over after the draft that likely means 1) you have little to no elite talent and 2) you are not going to win your league.

I didnt word that very well, but hopefully you guys understand the issue Im wrestling with.


Keep reading. He definitely addresses both the balance of the team and how it's sometimes necessary to let bargains go simply because you don't have room for them. He shares a worksheet he uses that lists off the 14 hitter slots and a pre-determined dollar figure for each (1 $35 player, 1 $27 player, $1 $20 player, etc.) where he uses his entire hitting budget. If he over or under-spends a certain slot, he re-allocates the saved or lost money to a different slot. It should all make sense when you read through those parts of the book.

Sweet, good to hear. Guess I need to get those pages aturning.
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Re: "Winning Fantasy Baseball," by Larry Schechter

Postby West » Sun Feb 23, 2014 10:21 am

I'm surprised no one has turned in a negative review of this book yet. It was terrible. Reads like it was either written for a 12 year old, or by a 12 year old. He introduces ZERO new ideas for fantasy baseball. It's basically a very boring story about his simple valuation system.

His projection system is even worse. At one point he writes about projecting Brett Lawrie based on MLE's. He writes: "Clearly there is a LOT of guessing involved here." Joke. One article in Shandler's forecaster or 5 minutes on Fangraphs and you will learn more than can be gleaned from the entire book.

I'm sure he is a fantastic fantasy baseball manager but he's a terrible writer. Not an engrossing read at all, and I was surprised at how simple and poorly thought out his arguments were.
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