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"Winning Fantasy Baseball," by Larry Schechter

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"Winning Fantasy Baseball," by Larry Schechter

Postby BronXBombers51 » Tue Feb 11, 2014 3:43 am

Brought up in the fantasy guru thread but definitely deserves its own. Fantastic book. Figured we could discuss Schechter's ideas in here for those who have read it, and maybe talk through some of the more complicated points he makes. If you haven't picked it up, I would highly suggest you do.

Speaking of questions, is anyone aware of where I might be able to find help incorporating OPS into my SGP formula? I have an equation worked out, but I don't have historical league data on what an average team's OPS would look like (meaning I'd need average plate appearances, walks+hits, total bases.) I just guesstimated at it for the purposes of my equation but I'd like to see if there is some concrete data out there like Schechter offers in the book for the other 5x5 categories.
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Re: "Winning Fantasy Baseball," by Larry Schechter

Postby rjforlife » Tue Feb 11, 2014 7:15 am

What do you do for H2H leagues? He strongly suggests the use of SGP, but it's based on a roto format. I guess I could use the formulas he put in a table for leagues to use, but my league is also only 10 teams and when I ran through some projections, it didn't come out all that well.


Overall though, the information is fantastic in the book and easy to follow, except for the Valuing players, which takes re-reading over and over to understand.
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"Winning Fantasy Baseball," by Larry Schechter

Postby BronXBombers51 » Tue Feb 11, 2014 12:01 pm

rjforlife wrote:What do you do for H2H leagues? He strongly suggests the use of SGP, but it's based on a roto format. I guess I could use the formulas he put in a table for leagues to use, but my league is also only 10 teams and when I ran through some projections, it didn't come out all that well.


Overall though, the information is fantastic in the book and easy to follow, except for the Valuing players, which takes re-reading over and over to understand.


Yeah I'm still trying to wrap my head around how to tweak the equations to account for different numbers of teams and different roster configurations.

He never makes met ion of bench slots in daily leagues. His formulas are based on a 14 hitter/9 pitcher split in weekly leagues, but what if we have the option of subbing players in and out on a daily basis? Do we make the values for only our starting lineup or do we include the bench spots? I would assume the latter since part of your auction dollars need to address your bench as well. But at the same time a bench player won't earn his entire $$ figure by virtue of the fact that you're only playing him a percentage of the time.

I don't know if any of what I wrote makes sense to anyone other than me.
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Re: "Winning Fantasy Baseball," by Larry Schechter

Postby rjforlife » Tue Feb 11, 2014 12:11 pm

You have to create values only for starters, according to his method. Here's what I did, assume a 12 team league even though I don't have one.

You take the 276 players for the 23 starters on each of the 12 teams, and you end up with $3120. Say you have 5 bench slots though. I just made all bench players $1, since his formula essentially does that anyways. So you take the 5 bench slots X 12 teams X $1 and you get $60. You can then simply take $60 out of the total dollars available for the remaining players and start your work with $3060 instead of $3120. I checked my leagues from previous years and there were an average of 50 or so $1 players each year so having 60 of them really shouldn't affect your values by more than a few cents here and there, if all.
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Re: "Winning Fantasy Baseball," by Larry Schechter

Postby rjforlife » Tue Feb 11, 2014 8:18 pm

He actually doesn't really subscribe to VORP at all, he uses a different system geared mostly towards roto, although with some effort you can translate it to H2H. It took me a while but I finally figured out the right way to do it and the values that it spits out really highlight some nice value plays, you just have to really believe in your projections.
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Re: "Winning Fantasy Baseball," by Larry Schechter

Postby Dugout Diamonds » Wed Feb 12, 2014 1:09 am

Tried to find this book today, but no luck. Guess I'll have to order it.
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Re: "Winning Fantasy Baseball," by Larry Schechter

Postby TheTrith » Wed Feb 12, 2014 1:42 am

rjforlife wrote:You have to create values only for starters, according to his method. Say you have 5 bench slots though. I just made all bench players $1, since his formula essentially does that anyways. So you take the 5 bench slots X 12 teams X $1 and you get $60. You can then simply take $60 out of the total dollars available for the remaining players

This.


same way i used to calculate values when LPP was still up. bummed that its no longer around.
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Re: "Winning Fantasy Baseball," by Larry Schechter

Postby Dugout Diamonds » Wed Feb 12, 2014 2:58 am

:-C Didn't know that LPP wasn't around anymore. Was a good site.
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Re: "Winning Fantasy Baseball," by Larry Schechter

Postby BronXBombers51 » Wed Feb 12, 2014 12:05 pm

rjforlife wrote:You have to create values only for starters, according to his method. Here's what I did, assume a 12 team league even though I don't have one.

You take the 276 players for the 23 starters on each of the 12 teams, and you end up with $3120. Say you have 5 bench slots though. I just made all bench players $1, since his formula essentially does that anyways. So you take the 5 bench slots X 12 teams X $1 and you get $60. You can then simply take $60 out of the total dollars available for the remaining players and start your work with $3060 instead of $3120. I checked my leagues from previous years and there were an average of 50 or so $1 players each year so having 60 of them really shouldn't affect your values by more than a few cents here and there, if all.


Ah, this makes sense. Thank you very much sir.
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