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Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby wrveres » Wed Apr 30, 2014 9:24 pm

OBPlover wrote:
TheTrith wrote:Lol at taking Salazar anywhere near his ADP.


what do you mean lol?

People get worked up about young, unproven pitchers because for a cheap price

You pick up a highly regarded rookie and if he flops, you drop him or bench him in favour of the hot hand or the solid but unspectacular veteran

you totally missed his point.
nobody is saying dont gamble, but Salazar came with a much higher buy in than most of the guys you rattled off.
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby OBPlover » Sun May 04, 2014 2:34 am

I respectfully disagree.

a) Salazar didn't really go for that a high price tag. His ADP came in around 150.
b) Salazar came in with a higher price tag than some of these other pitchers named because he offered higher upside, by virtue of a stellar K rate. (Plus once upon a time Cleveland seemed like a team that could score runs and win games).
c) It's only early May. He could very well come back and hit his potential. (But I admit watching him pitch so far is infuriating).
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby Sticky Spice » Fri May 16, 2014 3:05 pm

Down Goes Danny...

That $21 projection looks even more ridiculous now. Couldn't even make it through May.
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby Skin Blues » Fri May 16, 2014 7:40 pm

It's hard to predict a 2.1 MPH drop in fastball velocity. It's not like he was terrible either, he has a 10.4 K/9 and only a 3.8 BB/9. The skills are still there and he's really not that much different than last year. Main difference is his BABIP went from .298 up to .370. K%, BB%, GB%, HR/FB% are all within close range of where he was last year.

But yeah, if there's somebody that predicted the velo decline, kudos to them. Otherwise, it's random variation, and the "I told you so" banter should probably be kept to yourself.
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby Sticky Spice » Fri May 16, 2014 9:00 pm

But it is easier to predict failure when a pitcher with approx 50 MLB innings is getting valued with the likes of King Felix and Greinke. I'm assuming BF gave him an F for experience...

I'm not "I told you so"-ing anybody because I never actually stuck my neck out and made a bold prediction. But even when he had his velocity last year he was inefficient and had difficulty going deep into games. So to say the forecast missed solely because of a velocity decline is fallacious in my book.

We'll see if Bauer fares better!
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby Skin Blues » Fri May 16, 2014 9:12 pm

I was more talking about the other guy and his "Lol at taking Salazar anywhere near his ADP" comment that came after a handful of starts. Just got a very told ya so vibe from this thread, despite the real reason he isn't what he was last year seeming to be the velocity. He isn't going deep in games but that was to be expected. In roto it's per-IP that matters, not per-GS. If he can get his fastball even halfway back to what it was at last year I wouldn't be surprised to see him perform like a top 25 SP, which is where he was drafted (28th). But with young guys on innings limits, a prolonged period of high BABIP isn't really given a chance to sort itself out, hence being sent to the minors. But again, the innings limit was also expected. These aren't surprises to anybody that drafted him.
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby Sticky Spice » Fri May 16, 2014 9:14 pm

I'm def hanging on to him in my league with a deep bench.
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby OBPlover » Sat May 17, 2014 12:59 am

He didn't go for anything close than Greinke or Felix in 95% of leagues.

I took a chance on him and it flopped. But it wasn't a bad pick. There was lots of upside. But of course, if there was no risk, he would have been a top 10 pitcher, not top 25.

There have been plenty of vets this year that were considered "safe" but so far haven't worked out.
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby kab21 » Sat May 17, 2014 3:36 am

He looks like a nice buy low but he was almost cracking the top 100 in drafts. Like the N00bs, Scum and Masters drafts. That's pretty early for someone with very little track record.
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby Skin Blues » Sat May 17, 2014 9:27 am

I got him in a competitive mixed league for $9 which was about 130th overall. Nothing crazy. Felix went for $19, Greinke $16. And I only had him projected to pitch 138 IP, which is still very attainable. With a 3.55 SIERA during this slump as well as a 10.4 K/9, I'm looking forward to him being called back up.

Also consider that he had his highest avg fastball velo in his final game before demotion, as well as his lowest BABIP of the young season. FB velocity usually increases as the year progresses, and he's been at 94/95 the past 2 games, which is around where his velocity started out last July when he was called up.
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