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Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby JMB05 » Sun Jan 19, 2014 12:48 am

Sticky Spice wrote:I think you guys are getting away from the purpose of the topic. It was that BF projected Salazar at $21 and how that $21 compares to other pitchers.

You guys are talking about snake drafts, and based on dollar projections, BF is saying to take him in the same tier with Greinke and King Felix.

What about Tony Cingrani? He pitches for a better offense with a better pen, but in a hitter's park and has some similarities with Salazar. Should Salazar be projected to be worth $5 more than Cingrani?



I'm not sure if your playing devils advocate, or if you just don't buy Salazaar this year but I'll bite, here's my take.

Just to get the Cingrani stuff out of the way. Tony is interesting to watch pitch. His fastball is just crazy deceptive and while it's a plus pitch ( maybe plus plus ) he only throws two pitches. He literally throws his fastball 80%+ per game.
So he'll either be the first pitcher ever in the history of the game to be elite with one pitch or he'll be that crafty guy that makes it work but never figures it all out.

Mr. Danny Salazar.

Seriously one of my favorite up and coming pitchers.

If you haven't seen him pitch,or don't know his story I strongly suggest checking him out.

The guy is the empitome of an up and coming ace pitcher.

Throws high 90's heat, throws multiple plus pitches and can command the strike zone.

He seriously could be the next Huge mlb ace.

Tommy John set him back a year but he's only 23.

He's the real deal.
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby TheTrith » Sun Jan 19, 2014 12:56 am

Sticky Spice wrote:I think you guys are getting away from the purpose of the topic. It was that BF projected Salazar at $21 and how that $21 compares to other pitchers.

You guys are talking about snake drafts, and based on dollar projections, BF is saying to take him in the same tier with Greinke and King Felix.

What about Tony Cingrani? He pitches for a better offense with a better pen, but in a hitter's park and has some similarities with Salazar. Should Salazar be projected to be worth $5 more than Cingrani?

You can still apply $ values to snake drafts. In this case $21 would equate to ~4th round or so. A top 50 pick, which is much earlier than I talked about previously.


I think a lot of guys are down on Cingrani because everyone is saying he only has 1 pitch, and SP that rely as heavily on the fastball as he does do not generally have long term success.
In comparison, Salazar has a better fastball that routinely hits high 90's, a potentially plus slider, and a good changeup.
From baseball prospectus in July 2013 at his time of callup:
Reports on the slider last season were money, as it played well off the fastball and had excellent tilt. It looked like a future plus offering, a bat misser effective against both lefties and righties. The changeup was given a solid-average future at the time

read more here:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=21178
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby J35J » Sun Jan 19, 2014 2:00 am

Yeah, not only does Cingrani have 1 legit pitch but you'd think his command would be fairly solid since he doesn't throw much else, but it's not. Adding more pitches may make that command worse.

With that said, I do like Cingrani, he has some value and obviously some upside but I don't think he's on Salazar's level right now.
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby JMB05 » Sun Jan 19, 2014 2:38 am

Agreed.

Cingrani walks way to many people to maintain that low of an era. I see him as average era and above average whip.

I like him a lot, but he's not elite IMO.
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby longrobe16 » Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:32 am

J35J wrote:
TheTrith wrote:Cant go wrong with that. Anything in the mid-teens or lower is great value.
Its the guys who end up spazzing and drafting him around 10 as a #3, are the ones who are really at risk of being burned.


I disagree completely. Going after a high upside guy in round 10 is not going to hurt you nearly as much as it could help you. As long as you don't take all high risk/high reward guys and balance it out a bit, then taking a shot on a very high reward guy in round 10 is pretty much exactly what you should do. Especially if already have 2 legit SP ahead of him.


This is how I got Harvey last year. Round 9. It worked pretty well for a while! But he was an unproven commodity that had a lot of k's the year before but was still an unknown to a lot of people. I think young pitchers are coming up much more MLB ready than ever before. Don't be afraid of young pitchers. They've been groomed for this since they 10-11 years old.
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby longrobe16 » Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:36 am

J35J wrote:
TheTrith wrote:Cant go wrong with that. Anything in the mid-teens or lower is great value.
Its the guys who end up spazzing and drafting him around 10 as a #3, are the ones who are really at risk of being burned.


I disagree completely. Going after a high upside guy in round 10 is not going to hurt you nearly as much as it could help you. As long as you don't take all high risk/high reward guys and balance it out a bit, then taking a shot on a very high reward guy in round 10 is pretty much exactly what you should do. Especially if already have 2 legit SP ahead of him.


I took Harvey in the 9th last year so I have to agree with that. He was high risk high reward but everyone else was drafting closers and 3rd outfielders. Worked out well. Well until the end of the year. :~( Don't be afraid of young pitchers. They are more MLB ready now more than ever. They've been groomed for this since they were little kids. A lot of specialized coaching..... and Tommy John surgeries unfortunately.
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby Sticky Spice » Sun Apr 27, 2014 12:03 pm

It's still early, but so far some teams are taking it in the shorts on Salazar. Maybe he starts to turn it around in his start today vs San Fran, but so far some of my fears of him are being realized while Teheran, and the rest of the group I mentioned originally (Archer, Gray, Cingrani) have been good.

What's been Salazar's problem?
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby TheTrith » Sun Apr 27, 2014 3:29 pm

I said it then and Ill say again now. Lol at taking Salazar anywhere near his ADP.
People got waaaay too caught up in the recent success of guys like Harvey, Fernandez, Trout, Puig, etc and didnt think about the situation rationally. The number of pitching prospects, even elite ones, who are are just medicore fantasy-wise in their first full MLB season far far out number the ones who immediatley become fantasy studs.

We tend to easily forget about the Gausmans, Moores, Wheelers, Hughes, etc
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby bigh0rt » Sun Apr 27, 2014 5:45 pm

Not to poke the beast, but he's looking good thus far today. Hopefully he doesn't hit the roadblock that leads to gas fire that he has in his past several starts. That was a very Matt Moore-ish thing, and it seems to be how Salazar has profiled thus far this year as well. Lots of Ks, dominant stretches of innings. Hiccup leading to immediate disaster.
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby OBPlover » Sun Apr 27, 2014 9:02 pm

TheTrith wrote:I said it then and Ill say again now. Lol at taking Salazar anywhere near his ADP.
People got waaaay too caught up in the recent success of guys like Harvey, Fernandez, Trout, Puig, etc and didnt think about the situation rationally. The number of pitching prospects, even elite ones, who are are just medicore fantasy-wise in their first full MLB season far far out number the ones who immediatley become fantasy studs.

We tend to easily forget about the Gausmans, Moores, Wheelers, Hughes, etc


what do you mean lol?

People get worked up about young, unproven pitchers because for a cheap price, they can win you fantasy championships. Fernandez and Harvey weren't just "good young pitchers" they were game breaking.

Look at the treasure trove of good young starters for the past few years...Fernandez, Strasburg, Harvey, Cole, Wacha, Miller, Cingriani, (Darvish, Tanaka and Ryu if you consider them rookies), Alex Wood, Julio Teheran, Alex Cobb, Chris Archer, Y Ventura, Sonny gray and probably a few more I'm forgetting.

Of course, you're going to argue some examples of young pitchers failing (like Hughes). But it's NOT a 0 sum game. You pick up a highly regarded rookie and if he flops, you drop him or bench him in favour of the hot hand or the solid but unspectacular veteran. Overall you're better off gambling.
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