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Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby J35J » Wed Jan 15, 2014 10:30 pm

Saltydog wrote:Sounds like Matt Moore 2 years ago.


Matt Moore can still be that...he's young enough and the stuff is still there, it's all about the command with him. And that's a difference between Moore and Salazar in that Salazar has shown much better command in the minors and in his short stint in the bigs.
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby TheTrith » Thu Jan 16, 2014 1:48 am

The other major difference between Moore and Salazar is the Rays leave their pitchers in the minors forever to let them build up their innings so they are ready for a full MLB workload as soon as they are given a full time starting job on the big league squad.
I havent checked but Id be willing to bet that Moore threw way more innings at AA and AAA before his promotion than Salazar has.


Although I suppose you could take that either way... you could say Salazar has a much higer ceiling, or you could say that he wont throw nearly as many innings as Moore did in his first full MLB season.
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby J35J » Thu Jan 16, 2014 10:57 am

TheTrith wrote:The other major difference between Moore and Salazar is the Rays leave their pitchers in the minors forever to let them build up their innings so they are ready for a full MLB workload as soon as they are given a full time starting job on the big league squad.
I havent checked but Id be willing to bet that Moore threw way more innings at AA and AAA before his promotion than Salazar has.


Although I suppose you could take that either way... you could say Salazar has a much higer ceiling, or you could say that he wont throw nearly as many innings as Moore did in his first full MLB season.


Oh yeah, we've already discussed that the innings limit and maybe even pitch count per game concerns are a big factor of why he's not, or shouldn't, really be in the top 20.
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby longrobe16 » Fri Jan 17, 2014 12:02 pm

pretty sure I'm going to keep Salazar as my 22nd rnder though. :-)
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby TheTrith » Sat Jan 18, 2014 2:06 am

Cant go wrong with that. Anything in the mid-teens or lower is great value.
Its the guys who end up spazzing and drafting him around 10 as a #3, are the ones who are really at risk of being burned.
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby J35J » Sat Jan 18, 2014 12:00 pm

TheTrith wrote:Cant go wrong with that. Anything in the mid-teens or lower is great value.
Its the guys who end up spazzing and drafting him around 10 as a #3, are the ones who are really at risk of being burned.


I disagree completely. Going after a high upside guy in round 10 is not going to hurt you nearly as much as it could help you. As long as you don't take all high risk/high reward guys and balance it out a bit, then taking a shot on a very high reward guy in round 10 is pretty much exactly what you should do. Especially if already have 2 legit SP ahead of him.
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby TheTrith » Sat Jan 18, 2014 6:43 pm

I dunno. Im not comfortable drafting a guy to be my #3 who by all accounts will not exceed ~160 innings this year. In roto maybe thats a solid risk to take because you can make up the innings with MR's or streamed SP at the end of the year.
But in H2H i feel like its a mistake. SO much value lost when your #3 is only throwing 5-6 innings per start, and then doesn't pitch at all for you in the playoffs.
Maybe Im biased after getting burned with Moore last year... or maybe I just learned my lesson.
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby J35J » Sat Jan 18, 2014 6:57 pm

TheTrith wrote:I dunno. Im not comfortable drafting a guy to be my #3 who by all accounts will not exceed ~160 innings this year. In roto maybe thats a solid risk to take because you can make up the innings with MR's or streamed SP at the end of the year.
But in H2H i feel like its a mistake. SO much value lost when your #3 is only throwing 5-6 innings per start, and then doesn't pitch at all for you in the playoffs.
Maybe Im biased after getting burned with Moore last year... or maybe I just learned my lesson.


I figure by the time he gets to 160 innings I'll have already found 1 or 2 replacements for him along the way. That or depending on how I've drafted to begin with the loss of him at the end of the year won't be a big deal. It's not like when you lose him you are screwed, there are trades and fa/ww pickups throughout the year that you can overcome those 40IP without much issue.

I've actually learned my lesson the other way...being a little too conservative and waiting until the end of the draft to take my high risk/high reward guys. Problem is those guys don't pan out nearly as often as the earlier/middle round risks do. The conservative approach, more often than not, will keep you in it until the end...letting you finish top half more frequently but the guys that win or really pull away and run and hide are those that hit on 1 or 2 of those 10-12 round picks that perform like top 3-4 round picks.

But again, this is 1 tenth round pick we are talking about...he could give you absolutely nothing and that still wouldn't hurt you as bad as he could help you if he was lights out for those 160 innings.
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby rjforlife » Sat Jan 18, 2014 7:29 pm

Agree with J. In the instance of Salazar, the reward exceedingly outweighs the risk.
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Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby Sticky Spice » Sat Jan 18, 2014 9:23 pm

I think you guys are getting away from the purpose of the topic. It was that BF projected Salazar at $21 and how that $21 compares to other pitchers.

You guys are talking about snake drafts, and based on dollar projections, BF is saying to take him in the same tier with Greinke and King Felix.

What about Tony Cingrani? He pitches for a better offense with a better pen, but in a hitter's park and has some similarities with Salazar. Should Salazar be projected to be worth $5 more than Cingrani?
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