Return to Baseball Leftovers

Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby Sticky Spice » Wed Jan 15, 2014 10:30 am

I was awfully surprised when I saw the dollar value assigned to Danny Salazar in the new Baseball Forecaster.... $21.

I think part of the surprise was that I owned him last year and I noticed he was very inefficient with his pitches and rarely qualified for a Win or QS.

Part of the surprise was also looking up some other young pitchers first - Archer $11, SGray $11, Teheran $11, etc. Then I thought of Tony Cingrani, another strikeout artist who was terribly inefficient with his pitches, but who plays on a team with a good offense and great relievers. $16.

I also noticed that Salazar and Teheran have the same "UP" with sub-3 ERA and 200 K's, yet Teheran is valued at $10 less. Teheran also has over 300 more major league IP than Salazar.

Has Forecaster tapped into an ace sleeper with this projection, or are they going out on a limb? My understanding is limited because I do not follow these advanced metrics like BPV.
Sticky Spice
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Cafe Musketeer
Posts: 1137
(Past Year: -1)
Joined: 17 Feb 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: At the bottom of the Ancient Cave

Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby longrobe16 » Wed Jan 15, 2014 11:05 am

To me it seemed he was just on a extreme low pitch count, hence the low ip per game.
longrobe16
Little League Legend
Little League Legend


Posts: 11
Joined: 24 Feb 2012
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby Sticky Spice » Wed Jan 15, 2014 11:21 am

Good call - looks like his pitch count was about 80 over the course of about 11 major league starts. I wonder what they'll bump that up to?

I also just realized that the Forecaster's 2013 stat line for him includes his minor league stats(?), so he has really only had about 55 major league innings.
Sticky Spice
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Cafe Musketeer
Posts: 1137
(Past Year: -1)
Joined: 17 Feb 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: At the bottom of the Ancient Cave

Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby J35J » Wed Jan 15, 2014 11:49 am

Salazar is high on a lot of peoples lists. Only thing that keeps him outside my top 20 is he's probably not likely to go past 160IP and they may still really be strict with his pitch counts per game. Huge upside though.
J35J
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 10377
(Past Year: -42)
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby Element » Wed Jan 15, 2014 3:32 pm

J35J wrote:Salazar is high on a lot of peoples lists. Only thing that keeps him outside my top 20 is he's probably not likely to go past 160IP and they may still really be strict with his pitch counts per game. Huge upside though.


Agree completely with this. In terms of stuff, I like Salazar way more than Teheran. I always felt like Teheran's prospect status talked more to the likelihood of him becoming an MLB regular rather than his upside.

I watched several Salazar outings last season. The one pitcher that came to mind was Garza. When Garza was called up he had displayed a strong K9 & BB9 in the minors and threw off of a high 90's fastball. The big difference is that Salazar's change is legit. I like him a lot.
Element
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 4904
(Past Year: 28)
Joined: 25 Feb 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby rjforlife » Wed Jan 15, 2014 3:42 pm

My unbiased numbers ranked him 12th, I adjusted to 24th, but I don't see him outside of the top 30, and if you want to get him, you may have to be inside the top 20. There are the super aces, the aces, then a giant group of guys who are all similar from about 20-40. In a big group like that, the ones who will stand out and get picked first are the ones with the most upside like Wacha/Cole/Salazar.


Whether or not he's worth it is fairly subjective because he's had so little Major League experience and plenty of guys have flashed skills and potential in short spurts like him and not panned out. Then again, many have, so it's really the question of risk/reward. For me, I'm buying in and will be looking to acquire Salazar at any reasonable pick or price.
Goldy is King.
rjforlife
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicResponse TeamCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 7493
(Past Year: 247)
Joined: 25 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Vegas Baby

Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby Sticky Spice » Wed Jan 15, 2014 3:55 pm

OK, but just for comparison, note that King Felix is also valued at $21 and Greinke at $22. Does anyone really have the guts to take him in that tier? I don't :-D
Sticky Spice
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Cafe Musketeer
Posts: 1137
(Past Year: -1)
Joined: 17 Feb 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: At the bottom of the Ancient Cave

Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby Element » Wed Jan 15, 2014 4:00 pm

Jason Collette did a write up on him this morning.

http://rotosynthesis.rotowire.com/defau ... splay=4634
Element
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 4904
(Past Year: 28)
Joined: 25 Feb 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby TheTrith » Wed Jan 15, 2014 6:18 pm

I love him long term, but cant imagine taking Salazar anywhere inside the top 20. I just dont see any way he pitches enough innings to return that much value, even with a 10+ K/9.
I also dont think he posts a much better than average WHIP or ERA, although he does have upside provide near elite rates.
TheTrith
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 408
(Past Year: 126)
Joined: 19 Jun 2013
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Forecaster darling - Danny Salazar (vs. Teheran?)

Postby Saltydog » Wed Jan 15, 2014 9:57 pm

Sounds like Matt Moore 2 years ago.
Saltydog
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 753
(Past Year: 2)
Joined: 4 Mar 2009
Home Cafe: Baseball

Next

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests

cron