cordscords wrote:

I think the "locks" of the day are the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Reds, and Braves. Right now a .50 parlay on 5dimes wins you $4.21.

There are a couple of people who have mentioned not to use parlays and I thought I'd just explain a bit why most people are adverse to the parlay.

With this 5 team parlay you are getting 8.42 to 1. Seems like a good payoff when you risk so little to win over 8x what you bet. A solid sports better will be able to win their pics 60% of the time. So with 60% in mind, the odds of picking the money correctly on 5 teams in a row is .6^5. That comes out to 7.78% chance to pick correctly. With these odds your payout should be 12.86 to 1. So you should be getting 50% more on all of your bets.

So lets look at what happens. Right now with a 60% win history, if you made this same 50 cent bet 100 times, you would win about 8 times. That would be a payoff of $37.68. That is a net loss of $12.32.

Now what if you just bet that money on the money line with the same odds of picking winners? Lets assume your average money line is -150. If you made 50 cent bets 100 times, you win $50, now you at least break even.

Now lets run those same numbers one more time, except this time saying you only pick winners about 55% of the time (I'd say more average). Parlays you would win $23.55. Now a net loss of $26.45. Straight money line bets would have you win $45.83, now you only lose $4.17.

Okay now 65%- Parlays you net about $4. Money line about $4. Same thing. So unless you plan on picking better than 65% (which I don't think anyone does?), stay away from the parlays. The risk of ruin is just so big on the parlays.