Skin Blues wrote:Of course they do, but guys that sustain a high BABIP also typically have a lot of power (to hit the ball harder than average) or a lot of speed (to beat out infield hits). Carpenter really has neither. He's a good contact hitter like so many other middle infielders (Scutaro, the aforementioned Keppinger, Walker, etc) but having a guy's entire value hinge on an abnormally high BABIP, especially for his skillset, is not really something I want to rely on.
As for 2013 Marte vs 2012 Cespedes, Marte would be on a 162 game pace of 20 more HR+SB and 30 less R+RBI, and an identical average. And it's pretty clear that 20 HR+SB is worth more than 30 R+RBI. Also, like I mentioned, those are Cespedes' stats last year, and he's created a lot of data saying that those aren't accurate representations of who he is as a player. Most notably with his SB ability (5 for 11 so far), but also his large increase in K rate (18.9 to 23.5), and decrease in ISO/BABIP. I'm not saying this year is his true talent level, but you need to take everything into consideration when projecting a player's future performance, not just their best season.
Marte has a BABIP .364 and doesn't hit for alot of power. He's going to lose a step as he gets older so his keeper value can't rely on that. If Carpenter is no better than Keppinger due to a high BAPIP, there's no way Marte has more value than Cespedes. By the way, Carpenter has a higher ISO than Marte.