Ender wrote:Sure but if he is a .280 hitter and he is a 35 HR guy and he isn't going to steal anymore is he really better than Adrian Beltre? He is a mid to late 2nd round guy. When he was a 1st round guy he was Prince Fielder (the good AVG version) with 10 steals, now he is Andrian Beltre with less AVG and a tiny bit more power.
The little things really matter, he has lost his legs. He doesn't get as many infield hits, he strikes out more so the AVG is down, he doesn't steal as much. They are small things but they do chip away at his value. His value was always late 1st round with upside for more, now it is late 2nd round with upside for more.
Well hold on now, are we arguing if Longo is worthy of a (late) 1st round draft pick or are we arguing if Longo is better than Adrian Beltre? Perhaps there's an argument for Beltre as a late 1st round pick. I wouldn't do that personally, but I could see someone else taking that chance this year, with all the risks on anyone else.
Anyways, yes, little things matter...but you know what matters more than little things? BIG THINGS. And the big thing is that AB is 34 years old. He's no spring chicken in baseball years. You got a traditional hacker, getting on in years..his bat speed will slow down and his ability to foul off tough pitches will wain. The time will come when AB will fall off a cliff. It might not be this year, but it is coming. Longo is 27. That's pretty huge. I'd agree that Beltre plays in a much better hitter's park, but I don't know if that makes up all the difference.
As for his stolen bases, I don't see the big deal. He hasn't had a meaningful number of steals since 2010. if you take Longo, you aren't taking him for stolen bases, but for his projected 35-40 HRs and 110+ RBIs and 100 or so Runs scored and a .290-.300+ batting average. That would make him worthy of a 1st round pick.