Pogotheostrich wrote:I agree with this. Speed is plentiful this year IMO. Especially in the OF. There is so much speed in the OF this year and not much power that I've been jumping on power first infielders and filling in SB later with OF. Ender mentions some good SB later in the draft. I'll add Aoki, Eaton, Gardner, De Aza, Revere, Pagan, and Ichiro are all going after the 10th round. Not late but 30+ SB in the middle of the draft. I'll pass on Bourne in the 5th or 6th.
I keep hearing this - "you can get speed but not power late" - but it doesn't appear to be true, at least this year. The guys listed above are good speed guys that you can in fact get middle to late. But, looking at the consensus expert projections on FantasyPros.com, I see lots of late power guys too.
Guys going 12th round or later who will hit more than 20 HRs: Hunter Pence, Ryan Howard, J Willingham, Nelson Cruz, Napoli, Middlebrooks, LaRoche, Uggla, Chris Davis, Moustakas, Pedro Alvarez, Kendrys Morales, Todd Frazier, Nick Swisher, Michael Morse, Josh Reddick, Cuddyer, Dunn, Hart, Ludwick, Kubel and Plouffe. These guys aren't complete players (neither are Revere and pagan) but the power is certainly there.
For example, lets compare Chris Davis (Yahoo rank 158) to Coco Crisp (Yahoo rank 160). FantasyPros has Davis projected:
69R 27HR 77RBI 3SB .265AVG ...and they have Coco at:
68R 9HR 48RBI 36SB .266AVG.
Pretty comparable players I would say. Just depends what you need. Is there some flaw with these late power guys that I am not seeing?
I wanted to take this a step further and see what would happen if I compared speed early / power late with power early / speed late. Since everyone seems to love to hate Bourne I used him as the speed guy. Bourne is ranked 82 on Yahoo, Aramis Ramirez is a decent power guy and is ranked just ahead of Bourne.
Bourne is: 90R 6HR 51RBI 44SB 0.272AVG
Ramirez is: 77 24 92 4 0.285
If I take Bourne early and Davis late, I'm at: 159R 33HR 128RBI 47SB .269
With Ramirez and Crisp I'm at: 145R 33HR 140RBI 40SB .275
So Bourne/Davis are ahead in Rs and SBs; Ramirez/Crisp lead in RBI and AVG (tied in HRs).
And I didn't cherry pick this example - it just worked out that way. My point isn't that its better to take speed early, just that there is both speed and power late and you can get by with either strategy...