Izenhart wrote:What the article basically tells me is projecting is such a big guessing game, it can't be done with any form of accuracy. I say - if you believe that, then how can you consider yourself an expert?
Well, it is a guessing game. Sure you can make it a better educated and researched guess than the next guy, but at the end of the day the results will do their own thing based on all kinds of things that are out of your control. It's like the old bear joke..you and a buddy are out in the woods and a bear starts chasing you...you don't have to outrun the bear to survive you just have to outrun your buddy. In fantasy sports you don't have to be 100, 90, 80, 70 or even 60% accurate with your projections..you just have to be more accurate than your leaguemates. Another example, I project a player to put up .290/20/90/90/10 and you project that same player as .280/15/75/75/10 and then the actual player finishes the year at .320/35/110/100/20. Neither of us was right, or even very close, but I was closer than you and that means I valued him higher than you and that likely means I drafted him before you did, which is all that matters.