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Ender wrote:Trout was a good risk but there were dozens of other good risks too, owning him last year was mostly blind luck. I'd say the luck factor in fantasy is under 20% for sure, it is greater than 5%. I have no clue where in that wide range it falls though. I'm assuming players with a basic competent skillset as well. That still leaves a wide range of player skill levels, I'm just not including the completely clueless.
So yeah, there's a lot more luck than 10-20%
Ender wrote:So yeah, there's a lot more luck than 10-20%
Then why have I never finished lower than 2nd place in the regular season in my 8 year old H2H league. Why have finished in the top 5 in 38 of my 40 roto leagues I've played in. Skill is definitely a large factor in the game, it just isn't the only factor. There is no way luck is more than 25%, absolutely no question.
Just depends on what we are talking about...yes, like was mentioned the better question is what % is it to routinely finish top 5 in leagues...that is a lot higher % of skill to do. If we answer the question this thread asks "What % of winning is skill" does that mean what % of winning it this year is luck...that's probably much closer to 50/50.
Ender wrote:I used to always play some default yahoo leagues on my secondary account that I used for practice drafting back before you could find mock drafts so many places and my win rate in those default leagues was well over 50% because the people who join random yahoo leagues are pretty terrible. If it is 60% luck I should never be able to do that.
It is sort of a loaded question because quality of competition is a huge part of things and quality of competition is about how SKILLED your competition is. Against the somewhat casual players who still try in my normal leagues I expect to beat them in the standings over 90% of the time. Against the better players in my normal league I expect to finish better than them more like 50% of the time and since there are enough of them that means winning like 15% of the time. Luck only plays a huge factor if the quality of competition is very close to each other.
soxfan364 wrote:I would say more luck than skill...maybe 60% luck, 40% skill. Who can predict when a top ten pick goes down for a majority of the season, such as Tulowitzki last year. Yes there is some skill in picking a breakout guy, or a major sleeper, but injuries mostly come down to luck.
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