In 2011, his distance ranked just 60th. So maybe his huge home run outburst was indeed for real.
Or maybe he just got a bunch of juicy pitches. He feasted on Brewer pitchers hitting 6 HR off of them. 11 of his HR were off of pitchers most fans would struggle to identify and that is giving the benefit of the doubt to guys like Fiers and Smyly. Include those types and it 18 of his HR. Only 4 of his HR last year were against players that I consider elite within the confines of 2012. He hit a lot of long balls off of a lot of mediocre pitchers.
Give me an over/under on 30 HR for him this year and it is a easy no thought under for me.