BronXBombers51 wrote:Clearly they've taken some huge blows in the last week. Grandy and Teix should be back by mid-late May, so it's not as if their production is gone for the season. And I don't view Tampa or Toronto's lineups are being particularly potent either, especially if they happen to lose any of their sluggers to injury for an extended period of time. You also can't discount their ability to go acquire someone via trade if they get desperate, which they've been known to do.
But Toronto and Rays have superior pitching.
, Rays ZiPS
, Blue Jays ZiPS
Yankees starting rotation is projected to have 14 WAR, same as Tampa. Toronto is projected for 16. That seems a little high to me, but let's go with it. NY and Toronto have 3 each from their bullpens, Tampa gets 4. That puts Toronto at 19 total, Tampa at 16 and NY at 15. Offensively, even if you prorate Granderson and Teixeira to 2/3 of a season, the Yankees starting lineup (not including whatever production they get from Grandy and Teix's fill-ins) post a WAR of 23. Tampa also posts a 23 and Toronto a 26. That puts the Yankees around 38 WAR, which, unless I'm way off in calculating, would be good for around 85 wins, and that's after prorating the two offensive losses they just had and not factoring in any possible production from guys like A-Rod or Pineda should they happen to return for the 2nd half. I just think, in the grand scheme of things, you're talking about less than a handful of wins separating these teams. Luck could make up for that and then some. I'm not predicting the Yankees will win 87 games or beat Tampa/Toronto or definitely clinch a wild card spot. I'm predicting that they'll compete. They'll be in the race for the playoffs. That's it.
BronXBombers51 wrote: You also can't discount their ability to go acquire someone via trade if they get desperate, which they've been known to do.
I can discount their ability to make trades, since their farm system is not exactly overflowing with talent. They have Mason Williams, then they have a bunch of guys who not really close to the majors and are rather risky. I mean there is talent in the system, but are they willingly to sell it low for a rental?
I don't know what their plan is. I've heard Cashman say before he wouldn't touch the farm system but then saw him trade away Jackson, Kennedy and even Tabata when he was still decently regarded. Their system is not bad (Keith Law ranked it 10th in baseball) but you're correct in saying it is not ultra-deep and most of the elite-level prospects are not close to major league ready. I still wouldn't put it past the Yankees to trade them if they got a good enough return.