I drfated Ryan Braun in one league (2nd I think) and that went well, and I drafted Longo late in the first on the N00bs and managed 6th place (not as bad as it could have been). My other league is a keeper, so it doesn't count.
Cano 1.7 - 1st Place/8 Adrian Gonzalez 1.9 - 3rd Place/12 Albert Pujols 1.2 - 9th Place/12
If you did a million of these, you'd find they really don't correlate to winning, but could indicate a really crap year...which is further proof that you can't win in round 1 but you can probably make sure you won't. Get the best "guarenteed" production and live to fight another round.
Why don't they just get a house that's already painted?