Izenhart wrote:J35J wrote:You're thinking too much. This game has way to much luck involved to take it to the extremes you may be wanting to.
Well, no one is trying to come up with one be all list for the single best ADP here. They are simply stating the best pick on the board is always changing depending on your team composition and player availability. To come up with a best case scenario draft where every team makes the best pick in every round is simply not possible. All we are discussing is what may be the best strategy when trying to give yourself the best shot at winning, without relying on the big fluffy luck dragon.
Value based drafting works best when value meets tier meets need. Setting yourself up for these picks can be like playing chess and thinking 2-3 moves or rounds ahead. I think that is the best way to construct a team. Knowing the ADP of players and also your opponents strategies and favorites will help you out immensely here.
I like your "value meets tier meets need" and also the chess analogy. I alluded to a super computer that was powerful enough to run every possible draft scenario and pinpoint the optimal selection for each selection in the draft (probably not do-able) but I think back to Big Blue vs Kasparov in the chess world and apply it to a fantasy draft.
Big Blue competed by running millions of scenarios as many moves out as possible with some logic built in but mostly relying on blunt force. Kasparov countered that blunt force computing power by narrowing the number of lines that he found viable based on experience and the superior pattern recognition in the human brain versus the computer chip.
In fantasy, like a chess expert, the more "games" you play, the more you become familiar with likely outcomes based on how you draft. You assemble your tools (values, tiers, cheat sheet, etc) so that you are better able to recognize where value is meeting tier is meeting need in your draft.
And while luck is a factor that prevents the best players from winning every time, the better players win more often and minimize the impact of luck through careful roster construction and in season management. If it was all luck, where’s the fun in that.