I still think he can be a .285+ hitter who approaches 30+ homers & 15+ steals
I think he can be too. I also think he can hit .250 with 25 HR and the SB can drop to 10. The range of outcomes is very very wide. Remember less than a year ago they were routinely starting Overbay over him since he couldn't hit righties. He had a BABIP inflated .739 OPS vs RHP last year, there is a ton of risk with him. Goldschmidt at 50 isn't a big reach to me. Taking him 32 means he absolutely has to break out to make the pick worth it and that is the type of pick I don't really care for early.
Last year, there was another trendy pick First baseman who had a breakout year the previous year and was exciting because he also stole the odd base, setting no end to his potential fantasy value. And he too, was grabbed early innearly every league.
you know the old saying about "those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it".
I agree. Why reach for Goldy too early? There's a lot of reasonable late round 1B veteran bargains.