OBPlover wrote:I'm hearing an awful lot of "who not to take" but not a lot of "who you should take" in the first round.
This to me is an important point. It's kinda the same thing whenever an all star team is named and you get inundated with lists of guys who were "snubbed". Everyone's so quick to say who should be on the team, but no one really steps up to say who should be taken off the team to make room for the guys who were "snubbed".
That said my top 12 or so for this year probably consists of:
1. Trout. Even if he regresses some that lineup is stacked and he was so good last year he can still have first round value if he loses a few steals/homers.
2. Braun. He steals bases, Cabrera doesn't.
3. Cabrera. He might not get 40/130 again this year, but he's also very unlikely to do anything less than 30/110.
There's a bit of a drop off here imo. The next few guys all have ?'s imo.
4. Cano. Very consistent like Cabrera, plays a shallow position, but man, that Yankee lineup is looking ugly. I'm not confident that Jeter/Ichiro will get on base enough and Teixeira/Youkilis will hit enough after Cano to support Cano for the counting stats he needs to justify this position.
5. Kemp. Coming off leg/shoulder injuries.
6. Votto. Um, a homerun or two out of my 1st round pick is sort of a necessity.
Another slight gap here.
7. Carlos Gonzalez. He's great at Coors and awful on the road. This averages out in a roto league, but in a head to head league it's likely to cost you a couple of weeks at least.
8. Andrew McCutcheon. He's only done it once, fades in the 2nd half, and doesn't have much lineup support. Still 30/30 potential though.
9. Prince Fielder. Don't pass on the Cheeseburger King just b/c he plays 1st base. He'll put up useful numbers in everything other than steals. And arguably 3rd base (Cabrera's position) is deeper than 1st this year.
10. Pujols. Name recognition but 1 home run in 211 at bats in April/September/October is ominous.
11. Tulowitzki. WARNING WARNING DANGER probable won't make it through the year.
12. Verlander. Only b/c I tend to follow the maxim of drafts can be lost but not won in the 1st round. I'm not willing to roll the dice on Strasbourg here.