Most Accurate MLB Experts Past 4 Years
Moderator: Baseball Moderators
Frenchiegangsta9 wrote:3 year avg from 2009 to 2011: 23 hr, 72 rbi, 64 r, .258 avg
I would expect a regression from his 2012 career year.
SpecialFNK wrote:Frenchiegangsta9 wrote:3 year avg from 2009 to 2011: 23 hr, 72 rbi, 64 r, .258 avg
I would expect a regression from his 2012 career year.
3 year average includes 2009 where he only had 16 HR/56 RBI ..in 114 games/370 AB.
if he can get 130+ games he shouldn't have a problem reaching the mid to upper 20's in HR.
SpecialFNK wrote:I misquoted or whatever. I meant 2010, not 2009.
I don't think he will repeat 2012 numbers either, but I think it's unfair to use a 3 year average that included 2010 when he only had 114 games.
he had 136 games/488 AB in 2011 and 145 games/519 AB in 2012.
in 2010 when he had 16 HR, his production level was down. he only had 11.3% HR/FB, which was the lowest of his career.
in 2009 he had 24 HR in 133 games/427 AB.
in 2012 he had his highest HR/FB at 21.2%. he also had 17.4 HR/FB% in 2009. so I'm thinking he could/should be around that 17%.
his numbers could depend on how many games/AB he can get. if he could be limited to 120 games or less, that I think he would end up in the lower 20's. but if he can get 130-140 games like he has the last 2 seasons and have a HR/FB of roughly 17% then I think he should be mid to upper 20's.
Frenchiegangsta9 wrote:SpecialFNK wrote:I misquoted or whatever. I meant 2010, not 2009.
I don't think he will repeat 2012 numbers either, but I think it's unfair to use a 3 year average that included 2010 when he only had 114 games.
he had 136 games/488 AB in 2011 and 145 games/519 AB in 2012.
in 2010 when he had 16 HR, his production level was down. he only had 11.3% HR/FB, which was the lowest of his career.
in 2009 he had 24 HR in 133 games/427 AB.
in 2012 he had his highest HR/FB at 21.2%. he also had 17.4 HR/FB% in 2009. so I'm thinking he could/should be around that 17%.
his numbers could depend on how many games/AB he can get. if he could be limited to 120 games or less, that I think he would end up in the lower 20's. but if he can get 130-140 games like he has the last 2 seasons and have a HR/FB of roughly 17% then I think he should be mid to upper 20's.
No worries on the year, everything you mentioned here was what I looked at as well on Baseball Reference. As I mentioned before, I am going by what he did before his career year, even beyond the 3 year avg. He provided avg production for many seasons before 2012 so it leads me to believe he will revert back to doing so again in 2013.
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests