Most Accurate MLB Experts Past 4 Years
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Frenchiegangsta9 wrote:3 year avg from 2009 to 2011: 23 hr, 72 rbi, 64 r, .258 avg
I would expect a regression from his 2012 career year.
SpecialFNK wrote:Frenchiegangsta9 wrote:3 year avg from 2009 to 2011: 23 hr, 72 rbi, 64 r, .258 avg
I would expect a regression from his 2012 career year.
3 year average includes 2009 where he only had 16 HR/56 RBI ..in 114 games/370 AB.
if he can get 130+ games he shouldn't have a problem reaching the mid to upper 20's in HR.
SpecialFNK wrote:I misquoted or whatever. I meant 2010, not 2009.
I don't think he will repeat 2012 numbers either, but I think it's unfair to use a 3 year average that included 2010 when he only had 114 games.
he had 136 games/488 AB in 2011 and 145 games/519 AB in 2012.
in 2010 when he had 16 HR, his production level was down. he only had 11.3% HR/FB, which was the lowest of his career.
in 2009 he had 24 HR in 133 games/427 AB.
in 2012 he had his highest HR/FB at 21.2%. he also had 17.4 HR/FB% in 2009. so I'm thinking he could/should be around that 17%.
his numbers could depend on how many games/AB he can get. if he could be limited to 120 games or less, that I think he would end up in the lower 20's. but if he can get 130-140 games like he has the last 2 seasons and have a HR/FB of roughly 17% then I think he should be mid to upper 20's.
Frenchiegangsta9 wrote:SpecialFNK wrote:I misquoted or whatever. I meant 2010, not 2009.
I don't think he will repeat 2012 numbers either, but I think it's unfair to use a 3 year average that included 2010 when he only had 114 games.
he had 136 games/488 AB in 2011 and 145 games/519 AB in 2012.
in 2010 when he had 16 HR, his production level was down. he only had 11.3% HR/FB, which was the lowest of his career.
in 2009 he had 24 HR in 133 games/427 AB.
in 2012 he had his highest HR/FB at 21.2%. he also had 17.4 HR/FB% in 2009. so I'm thinking he could/should be around that 17%.
his numbers could depend on how many games/AB he can get. if he could be limited to 120 games or less, that I think he would end up in the lower 20's. but if he can get 130-140 games like he has the last 2 seasons and have a HR/FB of roughly 17% then I think he should be mid to upper 20's.
No worries on the year, everything you mentioned here was what I looked at as well on Baseball Reference. As I mentioned before, I am going by what he did before his career year, even beyond the 3 year avg. He provided avg production for many seasons before 2012 so it leads me to believe he will revert back to doing so again in 2013.
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