Return to Baseball Leftovers

Curtis Granderson...

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: Curtis Granderson...

Postby ayebatter » Mon Feb 18, 2013 12:55 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:Batting average is pretty easily the least predictable stat. Homeruns are pretty easily the most predictable. Those guys are falling further than they should because of age bias and that people are scared by low averages. Ayebatters draft looks pretty good to me.


And I/we thank all of you "high batting average" drafters. ;-D
So-Cal 25 Club _762_
ayebatter
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicResponse TeamMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 12435
(Past Year: 743)
Joined: 15 Dec 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: I CAN SEE FOR MILES

Re: Curtis Granderson...

Postby Ender » Mon Feb 18, 2013 1:48 am

Batting average is pretty easily the least predictable stat


This is a fallacy. It might have a wider range but it still ranges around a static point. While you may draft a true .250 team and get a .270 AVG you are just as likely to get a .230 and get a 1 in that category. Fielder ranges from 83 to 141 RBI in back to back years with the same lineup around him. Trying to predict anything is worthless, you are projecting and that means you don't really have any clue what will happen over a single season sample.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Curtis Granderson...

Postby Izenhart » Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:23 am

I don't care if he hits 50 home runs, if he hits .232 again and steals 10 bases I don't like his current draft position. Since both of those were career lows you are either in the school that believes he is fading due to age, or you think he will improve upon those numbers and keep his 35-40 HR power.

I'm in the second school of thought, and I'm expecting numbers around .250-95-35-100-10, but looking at who went after him in that draft (Cargo, Hamilton, Upton, A Jones) I don't think Granderson was great pick there. The next four OF's here could realistically put up those numbers and have a better BA. Granderson gets points for durability over CarGo and Hamilton, and Upton isn't very consistent, but at least these guys won't hurt you at all in BA and pitch in double digit SBs.

BA is as predictable as any stat. As ender said player's typically go up/down from a static point and last year Granderson was clearly down from his. As a .260 career hitter, I'd say his appetite for the longball has pushed his expected AVG down a bit. He had his highest K rate of his career last year, ran less and got dumped to the 6 hole in the lineup. This isn't someone I'm reaching for or expecting big improvement from, and to justify a pick inside the top 20 OA, he'd have to improve on last year's numbers or you will end up with a three category player early in round 2.
Izenhart
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1612
(Past Year: 167)
Joined: 22 Mar 2012
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Big Papiville

Re: Curtis Granderson...

Postby Frenchiegangsta9 » Sun Feb 24, 2013 5:15 pm

better start revising those numbers...

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/02/a ... ioles.html
Frenchiegangsta9
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 924
(Past Year: 7)
Joined: 22 Feb 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Curtis Granderson...

Postby JMB05 » Sun Feb 24, 2013 5:20 pm

It looked bad.

I knew it the second he got hit, he tried to shake it off and it wasn't happening.

Wrist injuries are notorious for sapping power, and it looks like the Yanks are in big trouble.
JMB05
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 480
(Past Year: 4)
Joined: 15 May 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Curtis Granderson...

Postby ayebatter » Sun Feb 24, 2013 5:40 pm

Looks like a broken forearm out around 10 weeks.
So-Cal 25 Club _762_
ayebatter
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicResponse TeamMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 12435
(Past Year: 743)
Joined: 15 Dec 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: I CAN SEE FOR MILES

Re: Curtis Granderson...

Postby SecretAgentMan » Sun Feb 24, 2013 5:50 pm

Well there goes Granderson's shot at breaking 200 Ks lol.
SecretAgentMan
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Response Team LeaderFantasy Expert
Posts: 4726
(Past Year: 1479)
Joined: 26 Dec 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Curtis Granderson...

Postby lastingsgriller » Sun Feb 24, 2013 6:25 pm

For what it's worth, his increase in hr/fb ratio is very correlative with him playing half his games in Yankee stadium and all his games in that lineup. Unless something changes, there is no great reason to suspect it is going to change.

That said, I still wouldn't touch him until the late 2nd rd.
Follow me on the twit! @chadmiller16
lastingsgriller
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe Ranker
Posts: 3915
(Past Year: 113)
Joined: 21 Jan 2009
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: ..skipping the light fandango.

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests