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2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby converge241 » Wed May 08, 2013 10:55 pm

I love those folks pushing as bailey the solution to the hanrahan injury woes

Like the Mr. Glass of closers

He certainly "could" if healthy and effective but man emphasize that IF
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby CBMGreatOne » Wed May 08, 2013 11:08 pm

At least Bailey's target return date is May 21st when eligible. Yes, if Tazawa dominates (does exactly what Bailey did when Hanrahan first went down) he will keep the job, but who knows how many save opps there will even be in the interim? If he goes 6 for 6 or something like that, then sure.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby bayside » Wed May 08, 2013 11:51 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:
Ender wrote:It would be insanely stupid for the Dodgers to go with Jansen as the closer over League. But baseball in general misuses the bullpen so I'd expect most teams to waste their best RP in the closer role which is a lower leverage role than the setup one so they probably will end up going that way.


why would it be stupid?
numbers wise Jansen is much better than League. if the 9th inning is where you want you best pitcher to shut down the other team in their final at bat, then Jansen should be closing over League. if League can't get the job done against the other team in their final at bat, then he shouldn't be the last pitcher you want out there to close the game.
if your best pitcher is Jansen and you pitch him to shut down the other team in the 8th, and then League comes in for the 9th only to blow the lead, then you've wasted Jansen in the 8th.
why is the 9th a lower leverage role?

I can understand saying your best bullpen pitcher should be used against the best hitters on the opposing team's lineup, but that may also be in the 9th just as much as it may be in the 8th or even the 7th.

V That should answer your question (again) and if it doesnt then you can go on fangraphs and look up "leverage" with regards to reliever situations
Ender wrote: the closer role which is a lower leverage role than the setup one
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby Skin Blues » Thu May 09, 2013 12:17 am

Ender wrote:It would be insanely stupid for the Dodgers to go with Jansen as the closer over League. But baseball in general misuses the bullpen so I'd expect most teams to waste their best RP in the closer role which is a lower leverage role than the setup one so they probably will end up going that way.

A quick look at 2012 (I'm on my phone, kinda tough) shows that essentially every team's highest leverage reliever was their closer. I can't find any exceptions. So why would it be "insanely stupid" for the Dodgers to use their best reliever as their closer, and therefore in the highest leverage situations?
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby Nerveclinic » Thu May 09, 2013 4:43 am

Skin Blues wrote:
Ender wrote:It would be insanely stupid for the Dodgers to go with Jansen as the closer over League. But baseball in general misuses the bullpen so I'd expect most teams to waste their best RP in the closer role which is a lower leverage role than the setup one so they probably will end up going that way.

A quick look at 2012 (I'm on my phone, kinda tough) shows that essentially every team's highest leverage reliever was their closer. I can't find any exceptions. So why would it be "insanely stupid" for the Dodgers to use their best reliever as their closer, and therefore in the highest leverage situations?


Get your popcorn and a seat near the front row folks, I think we have the next pissing contest starting up.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby SpecialFNK » Thu May 09, 2013 6:57 am

I haven't looked anything up, but if the 9th inning (save situation) is a lower leverage role.. then how come so many relievers can't have success at closing out games, even after they have had success in the innings prior to the 9th?

I'm just spit balling here (I think that is the word), but isn't the most crucial part of the game the 1st inning? so maybe teams should be implementing the Lou Piniella strategy and start the game with a reliever, then go to your starter later in the game.
if Jansen is the Dodgers best pitcher, he could start the game going the 1st and 2nd innings when he would be sure to face the other teams best hitters at least 1 through 6. (well that is on the days when Kershaw isn't pitching). but you could go Jansen 1 and 2, and then bring in whoever the "starting pitcher" is for that day. eh.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby wingman3110 » Thu May 09, 2013 9:51 am

Who's the 8th inning guy in San Diego, Thayer or Gregerson?
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby Ender » Thu May 09, 2013 10:01 am

Skin Blues wrote:
Ender wrote:It would be insanely stupid for the Dodgers to go with Jansen as the closer over League. But baseball in general misuses the bullpen so I'd expect most teams to waste their best RP in the closer role which is a lower leverage role than the setup one so they probably will end up going that way.

A quick look at 2012 (I'm on my phone, kinda tough) shows that essentially every team's highest leverage reliever was their closer. I can't find any exceptions. So why would it be "insanely stupid" for the Dodgers to use their best reliever as their closer, and therefore in the highest leverage situations?


If you look at gmLI which is the average LI when a pitcher enters the game over 50% of the top 30 from last year were setup guys. The point is that managers are grossly misusing their bullpens and by sticking your best RP in the setup role you actually end up using it more intelligently than the average manager even if it is on accident~.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby eneric » Thu May 09, 2013 10:05 am

wingman3110 wrote:Who's the 8th inning guy in San Diego, Thayer or Gregerson?


Havok has Gregerson and that's where my money is too. I actually picked him up a few days ago hoping that Street goes to the DL soon (I know that sounds terrible hoping somebody gets hurt)
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby Skin Blues » Thu May 09, 2013 10:31 am

Ender wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:
Ender wrote:It would be insanely stupid for the Dodgers to go with Jansen as the closer over League. But baseball in general misuses the bullpen so I'd expect most teams to waste their best RP in the closer role which is a lower leverage role than the setup one so they probably will end up going that way.

A quick look at 2012 (I'm on my phone, kinda tough) shows that essentially every team's highest leverage reliever was their closer. I can't find any exceptions. So why would it be "insanely stupid" for the Dodgers to use their best reliever as their closer, and therefore in the highest leverage situations?


If you look at gmLI which is the average LI when a pitcher enters the game over 50% of the top 30 from last year were setup guys. The point is that managers are grossly misusing their bullpens and by sticking your best RP in the setup role you actually end up using it more intelligently than the average manager even if it is on accident~.

That's an awfully creative way of looking at it. Only the Indians who had Vinnie Pestano and his 2.57 ERA (versus Chris Perez and his 3.59 ERA) used their setup man in higher leverage situations than their closer, and it seems like that was a good decision. That's not to say that bullpen usage is ideal, but in it's certainly not "insanely stupid" for a team to use their best relief pitcher as their closer.
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