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2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby jackie hayes » Wed Apr 24, 2013 4:57 pm

NZ Eff wrote:
jackie hayes wrote:
But League was signed to be the closer, while there's less of a commitment with Mujica. Rosenthal is a pretty big threat and pitching pretty well (fip/xfip in the low-2s). Agree with GF, Janssen #1, League #2.

(That's not to say that Mujica couldn't be as valuable, just that I like League's chances better.)


Rosenthal has pitched well :-? His K rate is great but a 1.60 whip and 4 plus ERA is far from Kenley Jensen country.


So far this year, his k and bb rates have been excellent. If you think his babip will stay north of .400, and his hr/fb will continue to be 22%, feel free to ignore him.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby bayside » Wed Apr 24, 2013 5:21 pm

Well giving up lots of HRs is one of the biggest factors contributing to what makes bad relief pitchers bad.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby West » Wed Apr 24, 2013 5:30 pm

bayside wrote:Well giving up lots of HRs is one of the biggest factors contributing to what makes bad relief pitchers bad.


*Bangs head against the wall*

Look at the sample size. The numbers so far mean almost nothing. Rosenthal has elite stuff and an excellent chance to take over the closer role. Ignore him at your own risk.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby West » Wed Apr 24, 2013 5:58 pm

keiban wrote:Good day gentlemen.

12 Team 4x4 AL only auction league. Looking to grab a potential closer and the following 4 are currently FA's. Would you grab any of them for this year only???

Pedro Strop
Joba Chamberlain
Bryan Shaw
Jesse Crain

I currently have Carter Capps filling the same role on my team, but he hasn't exactly been great so far. Thanks in advance.

K



Everyone you mentioned is basically third in line so I would go with the best pitcher first - Shaw. He has ridiculous stuff and he won't hurt you while he's on the roster. Crain next. If Reed goes down they will go to Thornton but he's a lefty so theoretically Crain would get some looks. Strop, Chamberlain are far from even sniffing a save opp. Strop hasn't pitched well and Chamberlain has Mo and Robertson in front of him. Very unlikely he gets a single save this year.

SpecialFNK wrote:I didn't own Valverde in any leagues last season. I think likely he went higher than I valued him since he came off a season before in 2011 where he did not blow a single save. but it seems as though some people are valuing Valverde really low, based on 2012? I can't remember the playoffs and what he did there. but his 2012 season really wasn't bad.
overall for 2012 he did have a low 65.3 LOB%. compared to 2011 at 82.9% and 2010 at 75.4%. career is 77.0%.
his BB were also down in 2012 at 3.52 BB/9, compared to 2011 at 4.23 and 2010 at 4.57 BB/9.
one thing I did see mentioned was his declining K/9 for each of the last 7 seasons.
2012- 6.26
2011- 8.59
2010- 9.00
2009- 9.33
2008- 10.38
2007- 10.91
2006- 12.59


Everything I've heard out of the minors said Valverde's fastball is back up around 95-96 MPH so he's got that back. I think he will be rusty and the walks will hurt him but in competitive and deep leagues people are putting good bids on Valverde. I think Rondon is the biggest threat and Leyland obviously has a lot of faith in Valverde after naming him the closer right out of the gate. He'll have a good amount of leash to start with and even more if he comes out of the gate hot. I'm buying.

NZ Eff wrote:
jackie hayes wrote:
But League was signed to be the closer, while there's less of a commitment with Mujica. Rosenthal is a pretty big threat and pitching pretty well (fip/xfip in the low-2s). Agree with GF, Janssen #1, League #2.

(That's not to say that Mujica couldn't be as valuable, just that I like League's chances better.)


Rosenthal has pitched well :-? His K rate is great but a 1.60 whip and 4 plus ERA is far from Kenley Jensen country.


Again - sample size. ERA and WHIP over such a small sample size are subject to a number of variables which often take a full season or more to normalize. I suggest you go to Fangraphs and check out some of their advanced metrics such as FIP or xERA.

Ender wrote:Dunno. They used Wainwright as a closer before turning him into a starter so you can't rule out that scenario either. He said he thought it helped a lot since it put him in so many higher leverage situations and he learned how to get out of them.


Agreed. They have a huge amount of organizational depth at SP and are in no hurry to put Rosenthal in the rotation. Joe Kelly is another starter sitting in relief and Carlos Martinez (another SP prospect) may be up soon to help out in the pen. Even Shelby Miller almost got sent to the pen when Kelly was pitching well in ST. There are several schools of thought on bringing young SP up in the pen. Some people think that they should be in the minors working on developing secondary pitches. Regardless, the bottom line is Matheny is not afraid to use the talent he has in the pen, in high leverage leverage situations, as closer, etc. People need to realize this. Rosenthal is a threat to Mujica's security and should be owned in most leagues deeper than 10 team.

NZ Eff wrote:Mujica has no one breathing down his neck like Henderson. I would say that even League has less job security than Mujica with the Dodgers 8th inning guy as good as it gets.


Disagree. Rosenthal is on par with Kenley Jansen in terms of stuff, K:BB, and League has far more job security than Mujica. League has experience, security and a 3 year $33 million dollar contract. They didn't sign him to do the 8th. Barring injury or a long spell of ineffectiveness he is the guy. Mujica can be demoted to the 8th in no time, which is where he belongs IMO.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby SpecialFNK » Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:31 pm

stuff doesn't always mean you're going to be successful.
Mujica hasn't done anything at all to be taken out of the closers role, regardless what Rosenthal has been doing or will do. as long as Mujica continues to be effective, he shouldn't be removed. and it's not like he can't continue this. he was also great after coming to St. Louis last season.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby NZ Eff » Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:40 pm

West wrote:
keiban wrote:Good day gentlemen.

12 Team 4x4 AL only auction league. Looking to grab a potential closer and the following 4 are currently FA's. Would you grab any of them for this year only???

Pedro Strop
Joba Chamberlain
Bryan Shaw
Jesse Crain

I currently have Carter Capps filling the same role on my team, but he hasn't exactly been great so far. Thanks in advance.

K



Everyone you mentioned is basically third in line so I would go with the best pitcher first - Shaw. He has ridiculous stuff and he won't hurt you while he's on the roster. Crain next. If Reed goes down they will go to Thornton but he's a lefty so theoretically Crain would get some looks. Strop, Chamberlain are far from even sniffing a save opp. Strop hasn't pitched well and Chamberlain has Mo and Robertson in front of him. Very unlikely he gets a single save this year.

SpecialFNK wrote:I didn't own Valverde in any leagues last season. I think likely he went higher than I valued him since he came off a season before in 2011 where he did not blow a single save. but it seems as though some people are valuing Valverde really low, based on 2012? I can't remember the playoffs and what he did there. but his 2012 season really wasn't bad.
overall for 2012 he did have a low 65.3 LOB%. compared to 2011 at 82.9% and 2010 at 75.4%. career is 77.0%.
his BB were also down in 2012 at 3.52 BB/9, compared to 2011 at 4.23 and 2010 at 4.57 BB/9.
one thing I did see mentioned was his declining K/9 for each of the last 7 seasons.
2012- 6.26
2011- 8.59
2010- 9.00
2009- 9.33
2008- 10.38
2007- 10.91
2006- 12.59


Everything I've heard out of the minors said Valverde's fastball is back up around 95-96 MPH so he's got that back. I think he will be rusty and the walks will hurt him but in competitive and deep leagues people are putting good bids on Valverde. I think Rondon is the biggest threat and Leyland obviously has a lot of faith in Valverde after naming him the closer right out of the gate. He'll have a good amount of leash to start with and even more if he comes out of the gate hot. I'm buying.

NZ Eff wrote:
jackie hayes wrote:
But League was signed to be the closer, while there's less of a commitment with Mujica. Rosenthal is a pretty big threat and pitching pretty well (fip/xfip in the low-2s). Agree with GF, Janssen #1, League #2.

(That's not to say that Mujica couldn't be as valuable, just that I like League's chances better.)


Rosenthal has pitched well :-? His K rate is great but a 1.60 whip and 4 plus ERA is far from Kenley Jensen country.


Again - sample size. ERA and WHIP over such a small sample size are subject to a number of variables which often take a full season or more to normalize. I suggest you go to Fangraphs and check out some of their advanced metrics such as FIP or xERA.

Ender wrote:Dunno. They used Wainwright as a closer before turning him into a starter so you can't rule out that scenario either. He said he thought it helped a lot since it put him in so many higher leverage situations and he learned how to get out of them.


Agreed. They have a huge amount of organizational depth at SP and are in no hurry to put Rosenthal in the rotation. Joe Kelly is another starter sitting in relief and Carlos Martinez (another SP prospect) may be up soon to help out in the pen. Even Shelby Miller almost got sent to the pen when Kelly was pitching well in ST. There are several schools of thought on bringing young SP up in the pen. Some people think that they should be in the minors working on developing secondary pitches. Regardless, the bottom line is Matheny is not afraid to use the talent he has in the pen, in high leverage leverage situations, as closer, etc. People need to realize this. Rosenthal is a threat to Mujica's security and should be owned in most leagues deeper than 10 team.

NZ Eff wrote:Mujica has no one breathing down his neck like Henderson. I would say that even League has less job security than Mujica with the Dodgers 8th inning guy as good as it gets.


Disagree. Rosenthal is on par with Kenley Jansen in terms of stuff, K:BB, and League has far more job security than Mujica. League has experience, security and a 3 year $33 million dollar contract. They didn't sign him to do the 8th. Barring injury or a long spell of ineffectiveness he is the guy. Mujica can be demoted to the 8th in no time, which is where he belongs IMO.


Jansen has been ridiculous for three seasons in the majors. Rosenthal is not close to him at this point.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby NZ Eff » Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:44 pm

keiban wrote:Good day gentlemen.

12 Team 4x4 AL only auction league. Looking to grab a potential closer and the following 4 are currently FA's. Would you grab any of them for this year only???

Pedro Strop
Joba Chamberlain
Bryan Shaw
Jesse Crain

I currently have Carter Capps filling the same role on my team, but he hasn't exactly been great so far. Thanks in advance.

K


Bryan Shaw and Joba Cahmberlain have no chance to close. They aren't even 2nd in line. The other two would be superior choices. Crain may be behind Thornton but would get situational saves. Strop would get the gig if Johnson went down but that looks unlikely.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby West » Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:49 pm

NZ Eff wrote:Jansen has been ridiculous for three seasons in the majors. Rosenthal is not close to him at this point.


Rosenthal hasn't shown the results yet but they will have similar lines to end the season. I think Jansen has the edge in K's but he will walk more batters. Regardless, League has far more security than Mujica - that is the point. Rosenthal is the better option for saves this year, IMO, and now would be a great time to trade for him/add him.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby West » Wed Apr 24, 2013 7:11 pm

Putz still the closer in ARI

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd ... b&c_id=mlb

Hernandez came in for the save today with Putz unavailable, and despite giving up a game tying HR he is definitely second in line and is a great hedge if he is available in your league.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby footballisbetter.com » Wed Apr 24, 2013 7:28 pm

I'm trying to deal for a closer in one of my leagues. Anyone care to rank these closers:
A Reed
Wilhemsen
C Perez
Grilli

They all seem pretty close to me. I think I like Perez the least though.
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