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2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby West » Wed Apr 10, 2013 6:07 pm

J35J wrote:
SpecialFNK wrote:
if I remember correctly last year early on everyone was drooling over the possibility of Greg Holland becoming the closer if/when Brotxton would be traded. he's only really had 1 bad outting. the one game where he was replaced by Herrera he gave up 2 singles. he has had bad luck this year. so far he has .556 BABIP with 63 LOB%. there is no reason for the Royals to overreact and remove Holland for Herrera.


Well, there kinda is.

1) The Royals are going all in this year...or actually have a reason to at least feel like we can be competitive into September...something that hasn't realistically been the case for 2 decades.

2) Herrera is just a flat out better pitcher than Holland.

3) Holland isn't a proven closer, he's got like 20 career saves. So to just say well hey, he's been a 30 saves a year guy for the last few years, hang in there he'll be fine, isn't accurate.

4) Herrera is better

5) I believe everyone in the organization and even the fans want, and know, Herrera to be the long term answer at closer.

6) It's so important the Royals get off to a good start that they can't just sit on their hands, with a better option behind him, and say we'll stick with him and let him figure it out.



Numbers 2 and 4 are the same. Holland has leash still. Herrera is a great stash but that's all it is right now. I see it like the Rosenthal/Motte situation. There's not much more to say on the subject until something else happens.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby angels7777 » Wed Apr 10, 2013 6:23 pm

Soriano has a tweak in his leg and may be given a few days off. Grab Storen?
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby SpecialFNK » Wed Apr 10, 2013 6:24 pm

what makes Herrera better than Holland?
Holland has a higher BB rate, but also a higher K rate.

2012.
Holland- 4.57 BB/9, 12.22 K/9
Herrera - 2.24 BB/9, 8.22 K/9.

minor league career.
Holland - 4.09 BB/9, 9.71 K/9
Herrera - 1.87 BB/9, 8.24 K/9.

major league career (which I think includes 3013)
Holland - 1.28 WHIP, 7.43 H/9, 0.48 HR/9, 4.05 BB/9, 11.66 K/9. 19.2 LD%, 42.9 GB%, 37.9 FB%
Herrera - 1.17 WHIP, 8.29 H/9, 0.51 HR/9, 2.22 BB/9, 8.4 K/9. 19.8 LD%, 54.3 GB%, 25.9 FB%

the higher BB rate sucks no doubt. but as long as he's not giving up hits with those BB on base he can still be a shut down closer.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby West » Wed Apr 10, 2013 6:29 pm

Storen should be owned in most leagues already, but if he is not he will provide good ratios and K's in an 8th inning role. Soriano will close as long as he is healthy.

Let's give Holland/Herrera a break. So much goes into the decision that has nothing to do with skill. Luck, managerial whims, etc. Herrera is a really good pitcher. Holland is really good too, but not lately. Not much more to talk about.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Apr 10, 2013 7:18 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:what makes Herrera better than Holland?
Holland has a higher BB rate, but also a higher K rate.

2012.
Holland- 4.57 BB/9, 12.22 K/9
Herrera - 2.24 BB/9, 8.22 K/9.

minor league career.
Holland - 4.09 BB/9, 9.71 K/9
Herrera - 1.87 BB/9, 8.24 K/9.

major league career (which I think includes 3013)
Holland - 1.28 WHIP, 7.43 H/9, 0.48 HR/9, 4.05 BB/9, 11.66 K/9. 19.2 LD%, 42.9 GB%, 37.9 FB%
Herrera - 1.17 WHIP, 8.29 H/9, 0.51 HR/9, 2.22 BB/9, 8.4 K/9. 19.8 LD%, 54.3 GB%, 25.9 FB%

the higher BB rate sucks no doubt. but as long as he's not giving up hits with those BB on base he can still be a shut down closer.

You act like having a BB rate that is twice as high is no big deal. Clearly, it is a very big deal. It's like saying "Ryan Braun was only 5th in home runs but Marco Scutaro was 2nd in singles. How can you say Braun is better?" You're placing an even weight on two things which are far from even. Also, Holland has struggled in all 4 of his outings this year, precisely because he can't throw strikes which directly puts runners on base, and indirectly, gets him into too many hitters counts. When tightrope walking goes bad, it goes really bad. He has at most one more shot before the reigns are handed over to Herrera.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby jackie hayes » Wed Apr 10, 2013 7:20 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:major league career (which I think includes 3013)


Cryogenesis 1, Rivera's saves record 0.

[Insert joke about Jamie Moyer here.]
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby silverZ » Wed Apr 10, 2013 8:08 pm

Skin Blues wrote:He has at most one more shot before the reigns are handed over to Herrera.


Where are you getting this from? I was under the impression that Holland has enough rope to blow a couple more after converting his last save op. :-?
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby SpecialFNK » Wed Apr 10, 2013 9:27 pm

Skin Blues wrote:
SpecialFNK wrote:what makes Herrera better than Holland?
Holland has a higher BB rate, but also a higher K rate.

2012.
Holland- 4.57 BB/9, 12.22 K/9
Herrera - 2.24 BB/9, 8.22 K/9.

minor league career.
Holland - 4.09 BB/9, 9.71 K/9
Herrera - 1.87 BB/9, 8.24 K/9.

major league career (which I think includes 3013)
Holland - 1.28 WHIP, 7.43 H/9, 0.48 HR/9, 4.05 BB/9, 11.66 K/9. 19.2 LD%, 42.9 GB%, 37.9 FB%
Herrera - 1.17 WHIP, 8.29 H/9, 0.51 HR/9, 2.22 BB/9, 8.4 K/9. 19.8 LD%, 54.3 GB%, 25.9 FB%

the higher BB rate sucks no doubt. but as long as he's not giving up hits with those BB on base he can still be a shut down closer.

You act like having a BB rate that is twice as high is no big deal. Clearly, it is a very big deal. It's like saying "Ryan Braun was only 5th in home runs but Marco Scutaro was 2nd in singles. How can you say Braun is better?" You're placing an even weight on two things which are far from even. Also, Holland has struggled in all 4 of his outings this year, precisely because he can't throw strikes which directly puts runners on base, and indirectly, gets him into too many hitters counts. When tightrope walking goes bad, it goes really bad. He has at most one more shot before the reigns are handed over to Herrera.


walks are not good, but they aren't that bad if there are no hits allowed along with the walks. a pitcher could walk the bases loaded, then strike out the side for the 3 outs. obviously not ideal, but still getting the job done. all a walk does is put that batter at 1st base, and advance any other runners 1 base.
last year with the Angles Ernesto Frieri had 4.31 BB/9, but he was still awesome because he also only had 4.31 H/9.
in 2011 with the Royals Holland had 5.55 H/9, so it's not unreasonable for him to still be elite while allowing some walks and not giving up hits.
Holland hasn't struggled in every outting.
in his 1st game he allowed 1 walk and 1 hit, a single.
in his 3rd game (before being removed) he gave up 2 singles, after getting a fly out for the 2nd out of the inning, then he was removed for Herrera. he had 9 pitches, 5 for strikes. why was he removed at all? it was a single allowed by Herrera that went towards Holland's run.
- G. Holland relieved J.C. Gutierrez
- C. Utley flied out to center
- R. Howard singled to center
- M. Young singled to shallow right center, R. Howard to second
- L. Nix hit for P. Aumont
- K. Herrera relieved G. Holland
- L. Nix singled to shallow center, R. Howard scored, M. Young to second
- M. Young to third, L. Nix to second on wild pitch
- E. Kratz struck out swinging

Holland on the season has given up 5 hits. 4 singles and a double.

as of right now I don't see an outstanding reason to remove Holland from closing for Herrera.

lets say Herrera is the new closer, what happens when he has a couple bad games? back to Holland? musical chair closers, causing doubt in both of them that could be removed at any time.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Apr 10, 2013 10:22 pm

Lets do our best to not turn this into Frieri/Downs 2K13 eh folks?? We're all trying to pull useful info from this thread. Don't make it more difficult.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby Ender » Wed Apr 10, 2013 10:33 pm

Hanrahan looking pretty bad tonight though the ump didn't do him any favors either. As I wrote that he gave up a 3 run HR so he gave up 5 runs.
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