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2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby SpecialFNK » Wed Apr 10, 2013 10:39 am

I think there is too much overreaction on closers who blow 1 or 2 saves early in the season. oh no the sky is falling!
not just by those who play fantasy or fans, but also by actual managers. there aren't many closers who don't blow multiple saves through a season. even the elite closers can blow games with 1 or 2 BAD outtings.
if I remember correctly last year early on everyone was drooling over the possibility of Greg Holland becoming the closer if/when Brotxton would be traded. he's only really had 1 bad outting. the one game where he was replaced by Herrera he gave up 2 singles. he has had bad luck this year. so far he has .556 BABIP with 63 LOB%. there is no reason for the Royals to overreact and remove Holland for Herrera.

I wanted to come here and ask about Huston Street. seems like someone who is injury prone and it's just a matter of time before he gets hurt and sees some time on the DL. I would assume Luke Gregerson is next in line. but I wanted to know the chances that San Diego will trade Street during the season. he did sign an extension last year so he wont be a free agent after the season. but the Padres are unlikely to contend so could they trade Street and go with Gregerson?
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby J35J » Wed Apr 10, 2013 11:57 am

SpecialFNK wrote:
if I remember correctly last year early on everyone was drooling over the possibility of Greg Holland becoming the closer if/when Brotxton would be traded. he's only really had 1 bad outting. the one game where he was replaced by Herrera he gave up 2 singles. he has had bad luck this year. so far he has .556 BABIP with 63 LOB%. there is no reason for the Royals to overreact and remove Holland for Herrera.


Well, there kinda is.

1) The Royals are going all in this year...or actually have a reason to at least feel like we can be competitive into September...something that hasn't realistically been the case for 2 decades.

2) Herrera is just a flat out better pitcher than Holland.

3) Holland isn't a proven closer, he's got like 20 career saves. So to just say well hey, he's been a 30 saves a year guy for the last few years, hang in there he'll be fine, isn't accurate.

4) Herrera is better

5) I believe everyone in the organization and even the fans want, and know, Herrera to be the long term answer at closer.

6) It's so important the Royals get off to a good start that they can't just sit on their hands, with a better option behind him, and say we'll stick with him and let him figure it out.


If Holland is past those few bumps in the road and dominates the rest of the year, fine, great...doesn't change the fact that Herrera is still better. And it doesn't change the fact that the Royals absolutely can't afford to allow Holland to continue to meltdown... if the Royals stand any chance at all of making playoffs we're going to do it by the skin of their teeth and everything is going to have to go right and a quick trigger on Holland when you've got a better pitcher behind him should very much be an option early.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby Prooks25 » Wed Apr 10, 2013 12:19 pm

Teams don't always put their best relief pitcher in the closer role. We've seen this before.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Apr 10, 2013 12:20 pm

Prooks25 wrote:Teams don't always put their best relief pitcher in the closer role. We've seen this before.
In fact if teams are smart they won't put their best relief pitcher in the closer role.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Apr 10, 2013 12:24 pm

I agree that the importance put on the "Closer" role by managers is silly, but the fact is that a lot of them make decisions based on one week (or less) of results. That can make a $1 pitcher into a $10 pitcher, and vice versa, in the blink of an eye. We have no choice but to be extremely reactionary because there's so much value to be gained

And it's not one bad outing by Holland. In his four games thus far he's allowed the following amount of base runners: 2, 4, 2, 3. When you allow 11 base runners in the first four games you're gonna be on the hot seat. Especially when there's a lights-out replacement that has allowed only 2 base runners in the same amount of games.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby TopChuckie » Wed Apr 10, 2013 12:48 pm

J35J wrote:
SpecialFNK wrote:
if I remember correctly last year early on everyone was drooling over the possibility of Greg Holland becoming the closer if/when Brotxton would be traded. he's only really had 1 bad outting. the one game where he was replaced by Herrera he gave up 2 singles. he has had bad luck this year. so far he has .556 BABIP with 63 LOB%. there is no reason for the Royals to overreact and remove Holland for Herrera.


Well, there kinda is.

1) The Royals are going all in this year...or actually have a reason to at least feel like we can be competitive into September...something that hasn't realistically been the case for 2 decades.

2) Herrera is just a flat out better pitcher than Holland.

3) Holland isn't a proven closer, he's got like 20 career saves. So to just say well hey, he's been a 30 saves a year guy for the last few years, hang in there he'll be fine, isn't accurate.

4) Herrera is better

5) I believe everyone in the organization and even the fans want, and know, Herrera to be the long term answer at closer.

6) It's so important the Royals get off to a good start that they can't just sit on their hands, with a better option behind him, and say we'll stick with him and let him figure it out.


If Holland is past those few bumps in the road and dominates the rest of the year, fine, great...doesn't change the fact that Herrera is still better. And it doesn't change the fact that the Royals absolutely can't afford to allow Holland to continue to meltdown... if the Royals stand any chance at all of making playoffs we're going to do it by the skin of their teeth and everything is going to have to go right and a quick trigger on Holland when you've got a better pitcher behind him should very much be an option early.


I'm somewhat inclined to defer to you as a Royals fan, but what in your mind makes Herrera better than Holland? Holland has had a better K/9, K%, H/9, HR/9, etc. at pretty much every level and Holland has a longer MLB track record. Herrera walks fewer batters and throws for more MPH, other than that, I don't see any metric or evidence that points to Herrera being the better pitcher.

In 2012, the most recent and only year they both pitched significant innings at the MLB level they had the following stats:

Holland, 67 IP, 58 H, 91 K, 12.22 K/9, 34 BB, 4.57 BB/9, .227 BAA, .346 BABIP
Herrera, 84.1 IP, 79 H, 77 K, 8.22 K/9, 21 BB, 2.24 BB/9, .246 BAA, .313 BABIP

That just doesn't scream Herrera is the better pitcher to me. Herrera can throw as hard as he wants, 14 more K's in 17.1 fewer innings tells me Holland is the more dominant pitcher. The only reason I could see Herrera deserving the job more than Holland is if Holland allows his lesser control to get him in to too much trouble.

I own both and Herrera would be the cheaper keeper for me, so I don't really have a bias, I just think this trend to throw the incumbent under the bus instantly and call for the next in line has gotten out of control. <---- ETA: No pun intended. :)
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Apr 10, 2013 1:13 pm

4.5 BB/9 is pretty terrible. Very few closers keep their job when they give out that many free passes. They turn into Marmol/Valverde/Gregg/Axford and fade away. Walking a tightrope like that only lasts so long when there's a better alternative avaliable.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby Ender » Wed Apr 10, 2013 1:24 pm

In 2012, the most recent and only year they both pitched significant innings at the MLB level they had the following stats:

Holland, 67 IP, 58 H, 91 K, 12.22 K/9, 34 BB, 4.57 BB/9, .227 BAA, .346 BABIP
Herrera, 84.1 IP, 79 H, 77 K, 8.22 K/9, 21 BB, 2.24 BB/9, .246 BAA, .313 BABIP


Part of the issue is using K/9 makes Holland look better than he is because of the stark contract in the BB rate. K% still heavily favors Holland but it isn't as large a gap as that makes it look like. Same reason Marmol's K/9 is deceiving though his is on an even larger scale.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby J35J » Wed Apr 10, 2013 1:25 pm

TopChuckie wrote:
J35J wrote:
SpecialFNK wrote:
if I remember correctly last year early on everyone was drooling over the possibility of Greg Holland becoming the closer if/when Brotxton would be traded. he's only really had 1 bad outting. the one game where he was replaced by Herrera he gave up 2 singles. he has had bad luck this year. so far he has .556 BABIP with 63 LOB%. there is no reason for the Royals to overreact and remove Holland for Herrera.


Well, there kinda is.

1) The Royals are going all in this year...or actually have a reason to at least feel like we can be competitive into September...something that hasn't realistically been the case for 2 decades.

2) Herrera is just a flat out better pitcher than Holland.

3) Holland isn't a proven closer, he's got like 20 career saves. So to just say well hey, he's been a 30 saves a year guy for the last few years, hang in there he'll be fine, isn't accurate.

4) Herrera is better

5) I believe everyone in the organization and even the fans want, and know, Herrera to be the long term answer at closer.

6) It's so important the Royals get off to a good start that they can't just sit on their hands, with a better option behind him, and say we'll stick with him and let him figure it out.


If Holland is past those few bumps in the road and dominates the rest of the year, fine, great...doesn't change the fact that Herrera is still better. And it doesn't change the fact that the Royals absolutely can't afford to allow Holland to continue to meltdown... if the Royals stand any chance at all of making playoffs we're going to do it by the skin of their teeth and everything is going to have to go right and a quick trigger on Holland when you've got a better pitcher behind him should very much be an option early.


I'm somewhat inclined to defer to you as a Royals fan, but what in your mind makes Herrera better than Holland? Holland has had a better K/9, K%, H/9, HR/9, etc. at pretty much every level and Holland has a longer MLB track record. Herrera walks fewer batters and throws for more MPH, other than that, I don't see any metric or evidence that points to Herrera being the better pitcher.

In 2012, the most recent and only year they both pitched significant innings at the MLB level they had the following stats:

Holland, 67 IP, 58 H, 91 K, 12.22 K/9, 34 BB, 4.57 BB/9, .227 BAA, .346 BABIP
Herrera, 84.1 IP, 79 H, 77 K, 8.22 K/9, 21 BB, 2.24 BB/9, .246 BAA, .313 BABIP

That just doesn't scream Herrera is the better pitcher to me. Herrera can throw as hard as he wants, 14 more K's in 17.1 fewer innings tells me Holland is the more dominant pitcher. The only reason I could see Herrera deserving the job more than Holland is if Holland allows his lesser control to get him in to too much trouble.

I own both and Herrera would be the cheaper keeper for me, so I don't really have a bias, I just think this trend to throw the incumbent under the bus instantly and call for the next in line has gotten out of control. <---- ETA: No pun intended. :)


I'll be shocked if he doesn't have a higher K/9 than Holland this year...and if he doesn't its likely because he's in the strike zone so much more that contact is bound to happen. Holland is effectively wild...his stuff just isn't as good as Herrera's. And as Skins said, I don't care what your K/9 is if you've got a terrible BB/9 to go along with it. But I'm going "scout" with these predictions as we've only got the rookie year worth of data on Herrera. I see Herrera really improving this year and the walks and inconsistancy will catch up to Holland, as we've already been witnessing, this isn't the first time he's battled control problems either.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD (PRE-SEASON)

Postby jackie hayes » Wed Apr 10, 2013 2:12 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:I think there is too much overreaction on closers who blow 1 or 2 saves early in the season. oh no the sky is falling!
not just by those who play fantasy or fans, but also by actual managers. there aren't many closers who don't blow multiple saves through a season. even the elite closers can blow games with 1 or 2 BAD outtings.
if I remember correctly last year early on everyone was drooling over the possibility of Greg Holland becoming the closer if/when Brotxton would be traded. he's only really had 1 bad outting. the one game where he was replaced by Herrera he gave up 2 singles. he has had bad luck this year. so far he has .556 BABIP with 63 LOB%. there is no reason for the Royals to overreact and remove Holland for Herrera.

I wanted to come here and ask about Huston Street. seems like someone who is injury prone and it's just a matter of time before he gets hurt and sees some time on the DL. I would assume Luke Gregerson is next in line. but I wanted to know the chances that San Diego will trade Street during the season. he did sign an extension last year so he wont be a free agent after the season. but the Padres are unlikely to contend so could they trade Street and go with Gregerson?


If managers are prone to overreaction, doesn't that mean fantasy owners are not overreacting? (Since the job is the key for value, anyway.)

On Street and Gregerson -- maybe, but don't forget that Gregerson could also be traded if the Padres aren't contending, like they did with Mike Adams.
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