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2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby A Fleshner Fantasy » Mon Jun 17, 2013 10:03 pm

Any chance Paps gets traded to the Tigers? I agree that he won't go to STL, but DET doesn't seem to mind taking on big contracts.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby footballisbetter.com » Mon Jun 17, 2013 10:18 pm

Jim Leyland said they will mix-and-match for the closer role right now. It will NOT be Rick Porcello. They aren't going to change the rotation.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby SpecialFNK » Mon Jun 17, 2013 10:39 pm

I think that's stupid. what has Valverde done to lose his job?
mixing and matching is the worst. either remove him or leave him be.

not one reliever last season with 10 or more saves did not blow at least 1 save.
out of all the relievers with 25 or more saves, only Rodney had at least 2 blown saves.

this is the problem with closers. a few bad games and media/fans want to blow things up. OMG a blown save, holy shit, lets bring in someone else.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Jun 18, 2013 1:29 am

SpecialFNK wrote:I think that's stupid. what has Valverde done to lose his job?

Other than being terrible? His swinging strike rate has tanked, and his z-contact has skyrocketed. He's not missing any bats. He's going to get crushed, and he's already started to give up home runs from people that refuse to chase his mediocre junk out of the strike zone. He has unsustainable BABIP and LOB% which are keeping his ERA barely below 4 for the time being but there's no sense in waiting for the ticking time bomb to fully explode. This is a guy that was far from elite even in his prime and he just doesn't have it any more. Joaquin Benoit, on the other hand, has been fantastic for the past 4 seasons. He is currently holding a 1.80 ERA with barely any help form the luck dragons, and he is far more qualified for the closer role than Valverde. I suppose they could trade for somebody, but Valverde has walked the the edge of the plank and is either going to jump or be pushed off.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby SpecialFNK » Tue Jun 18, 2013 6:44 am

he hasn't been great, but he's been good enough.
in his last 6 appearances he has at least 1 K. he still has 18 K in 18.1 IP, for 8.84 K/9.
if batters aren't chasing his pitchers, then he's not walking them much either. he only has 6 BB in 18.1 IP for 2.95 BB/9, his lowest since 2008.
batters aren't driving the ball. he only has 12.0 LD%.
he only has 2 blown saves over the last month. how many closers blow 2 saves in a month and are at risk to lose their job?
he had 1 really bad game where he gave up 4 ER on May 31 for a blown save. he had 1 bad game where he gave up 2 ER in June 7, in a tie game/non save situation.
isn't his HR allowed just as unsustainable? 5 HR in 18.1 IP, and 21.7 HR/FB.

the problem is before he was signed and then after he was signed fans/media were already saying he isn't going to be very good. so that idea is already planted in people's head. then the first sign of trouble, OMG the sky is falling!!!! then fans/media panic and want a change. what a manager should be doing is saying closer X IS the closer, which could also help give the closer more confidence. instead of closer X worrying when he's going to lose his job after 1 bad game which effects ones confidence.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby Crippler » Tue Jun 18, 2013 8:32 am

'Special', we know you have a crush on Valverde, but you can ease up. He's simply a terrible pitcher. He's been bad and all the peripherals say so. Even Leyland is starting to see this. Not sure why you have blinders on...likely because you own him on all of your fantasy teams. But he's bad. Trust us.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby SpecialFNK » Tue Jun 18, 2013 3:57 pm

if Valverde was bad, then wouldn't his numbers that I mentioned above show it?

K% is good. better than guys like Johnson, Rivera, Soriano, Mujica, Janssen, Papelbon.
BB% is good. better than guys like Chapman, Balfour, Wilhelmsen, Holland, Frieri, Veras, Rodney, Betancourt.
(Valverde's BB% has even improved in each of the last 3 seasons.)
LOB% is high yes, but other guys are higher, like Kimbrel, Balfour, Frieri, Street, Papelbon,

I don't think he is as good as he used to be, but I think he could certainly be a serviceable closer.

it's not just Valverde, but this happens all the time. how many times in this thread through the first couple months of the season did a closer blow a save and multiple people come to this thread to ask, who's next? 1 blown save and people want to know who's next. even your best closers can blow 3 to 4 saves a season, and sometimes more. (2012 Motte had 42 saves and 7 blown saves).
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:21 pm

Nobody is saying he sucks because of his blown saves. He could have 0 blown saves and still be terrible. My argument was based on his rapidly declining SwStr% and Z-Contact%. In such a small sample size I'd prefer to look at those stats. If you don't care about them then by all means, expect him to be a good pitcher. He could very well remain an effective closer; after all, he got 35 saves last year when he was pretty bad and didn't implode to the point of uselessness until the playoffs..
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby SpecialFNK » Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:33 pm

if any closer is not blowing any/many saves, then why remove that closer from the role? the bottom line is getting saves. in the end that's what matters, winning games, and getting saves.
there are many good relievers with great non closing numbers, but then when they get the chance to become a closer they can't get the job done. it's a different environment.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:12 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:if any closer is not blowing any/many saves, then why remove that closer from the role? the bottom line is getting saves. in the end that's what matters, winning games, and getting saves.

Because we're interested in what players WILL do, not what they HAVE done. Sometimes there's a correlation between the two, but not always. I don't want to drag this on, there's not much more to explore here.

SpecialFNK wrote:there are many good relievers with great non closing numbers, but then when they get the chance to become a closer they can't get the job done. it's a different environment.

If you have real evidence to support this, please share it. It would be interesting to read an actual study because there very well could be something to it, but I've never seen anything other than anecdotes. Many of the anecdotes are then proven wrong when guys like Betancourt and Madson become closers. Its the classic "something is true until it isn't" situation. There's no real science to it, it's just a narrative used by sports radio and baseball announcers.
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