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2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby BALCO All-Stars » Sun Jun 02, 2013 8:16 pm

CBMGreatOne wrote:Can't say I know why Jose Veras wasn't called on to protect a 5-2 lead in the bottom of the ninth today. Brad Peacock comes in and promptly allows a two run shot, still nobody out and now 5-4.

Edit: Now Ambriz comes in to try to protect the one run lead. Don't know what's going on with Veras.


Veras had pitched the last two nights, plus 3 of the previous 4 nights, so maybe just a routine night off?
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby SpecialFNK » Sun Jun 02, 2013 8:53 pm

Brandon League had 37 saves in 2011 for a Seattle team that only had 67 wins.
even if a bad team can get 60ish close victories, that teams closer can still get a good number of saves.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby Norby » Sun Jun 02, 2013 11:42 pm

bigh0rt wrote:From what I'm reading, it looks like Betancourt is expected to miss the minimum 15 days, while there is no set timetable for Street's return, who also is a ticking injury time bomb (he could also be back in 15 days, it's only a calf strain, albeit the same one from last season). Gregerson I think is the safer option for long term Saves than Brothers, leaving ability aside completely. They're both good pitchers and fully capable of locking down games. All we're really trying to figure out here is who is more likely to be in line to get Saves longer. For me, Gregerson seems to be the safer bet right now.


According to the article on MLB.com, Street's injury sounds very minor. Not sure how that makes Gregerson the safer bet? Betancourt's injury sounds more severe to me. /shrug

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd ... sd&c_id=sd

The move is retroactive to May 30 and Street said Saturday that he doesn't think he'll need the entire 15 days to get healthy.

"It's not a two- or three-day thing, but hopefully it's recovered by six or seven days," Street said.

The Padres added left-handed relief pitcher Tommy Layne to the roster from Triple-A Tucson. He is in uniform and available for Saturday's game.

Street sounded mostly encouraged about his injury, noting that while it's the same calf that landed him on the disabled list last season and caused him to miss 35 games, that this latest injury is not nearly as serious.

"Same calf, different spot and a different severity level," Street said. "We wanted to make sure to avoid the same mistake twice. The risk isn't worth the reward."
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby NZ Eff » Mon Jun 03, 2013 12:43 am

SpecialFNK wrote:Brandon League had 37 saves in 2011 for a Seattle team that only had 67 wins.
even if a bad team can get 60ish close victories, that teams closer can still get a good number of saves.


That may be so but there is no doubt that the better the team the more save opportunities on average.

Baltimore, Cardinals, Arizona, Pittsburgh and Braves are the Top 5 teams in save opportunities this season and are all top 10 teams in wins. Miami have had by far the fewest save ops. then the Phillies, Mets, Padres and Blue Jays. All these teams are sub .500.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby Norby » Mon Jun 03, 2013 2:27 am

Yippee. Gibbons brings Janssen in again in a tie game on the road instead of saving him for the save opp. Luckily for fantasy owners of Janssen, the offense bailed him out and he earned the win.

This, however, is a disturbing trend for fantasy save opps for Janssen. I'm not sure i like having a closer that's not going to get save chances on the road in close ball games. Damn you Gibbons!
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby Padsin05 » Mon Jun 03, 2013 7:10 am

mac-unit wrote:
Padsin05 wrote:
TitsMcGahee wrote:

I prefer Brothers, on a better team, and is also better.


being on a better team is irrelevant for closers

what leads you to believe that Brothers is better then Gergerson, cause I really doubt that



Over the past 3 years Gregersons WAR is 1.0, Brothers WAR is 2.6. Brothers also gets more Ks. If you can't strike guys out you're a ticking time bomb as a closer, look at Jim Johnson.And Thatcher will most likely get the save chance if the match ups are there.


Buddy doesnt play matchups, Thatcher isnt a threat. Your WAR numbers are way off, but irregardless WAR is irrelevant this is fantasy
Career pitcher A
2.76 ERA 1.07 WHIP 306ip 307k (9k/9) 95bb .209baa .587opsa

Career pitcher B
2.91 ERA 1.38 WHIP133ip 167k (11.2k/9) 69bb .233baa .673ops

WHIP is the biggest determining factor for a closer imo, Brothers walks almost 2x as more batters/9 then Gregerson over their careers.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby Quackman » Mon Jun 03, 2013 12:04 pm

NZ Eff wrote:
SpecialFNK wrote:Brandon League had 37 saves in 2011 for a Seattle team that only had 67 wins.
even if a bad team can get 60ish close victories, that teams closer can still get a good number of saves.


That may be so but there is no doubt that the better the team the more save opportunities on average.

Baltimore, Cardinals, Arizona, Pittsburgh and Braves are the Top 5 teams in save opportunities this season and are all top 10 teams in wins. Miami have had by far the fewest save ops. then the Phillies, Mets, Padres and Blue Jays. All these teams are sub .500.


This^. There are always exceptions like the one fnk pointed out but closers on good times are more valuable as a general rule. If the closer is on a bad team, the stars have to align just right for the closer to get a decent number of saves,,,,especially in H2H closers on bad teams can kill your team in terms of saves.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby ramble2 » Mon Jun 03, 2013 1:32 pm

Quackman wrote:
NZ Eff wrote:
SpecialFNK wrote:Brandon League had 37 saves in 2011 for a Seattle team that only had 67 wins.
even if a bad team can get 60ish close victories, that teams closer can still get a good number of saves.


That may be so but there is no doubt that the better the team the more save opportunities on average.

Baltimore, Cardinals, Arizona, Pittsburgh and Braves are the Top 5 teams in save opportunities this season and are all top 10 teams in wins. Miami have had by far the fewest save ops. then the Phillies, Mets, Padres and Blue Jays. All these teams are sub .500.


This^. There are always exceptions like the one fnk pointed out but closers on good times are more valuable as a general rule. If the closer is on a bad team, the stars have to align just right for the closer to get a decent number of saves,,,,especially in H2H closers on bad teams can kill your team in terms of saves.

This general rule isn't very strongly supported. It turns out there are some good analytic studies of the correlation of winning percentage (of teams) to saves produced. Below are some links, but here are a couple of quick take-aways:
In other words, don't over think things. Go after the most skilled closers and don't worry too much about how good their team is. If you prefer anecdotal evidence, recall that Hoffman racked up lots of saves with some pretty lousy SD teams.

Here are some nice articles from Fangraphs if you want to see the data:
"The game has a cleanness. If you do a good job, the numbers say so. You don't have to ask anyone or play politics. You don't have to wait for the reviews." - Sandy Koufax
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby J35J » Mon Jun 03, 2013 2:04 pm

Yup, I think 1 year on my spreadsheet I put the previous 3 years save opportunities with each closer and it turned out that it didn't really matter what team it was or how many wins, they were all relatively the same, so I quit putting it on the spreadsheet.
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Re: 2013 CLOSERS THREAD

Postby Quackman » Mon Jun 03, 2013 2:13 pm

ramble2 wrote:
Quackman wrote:
NZ Eff wrote:
That may be so but there is no doubt that the better the team the more save opportunities on average.

Baltimore, Cardinals, Arizona, Pittsburgh and Braves are the Top 5 teams in save opportunities this season and are all top 10 teams in wins. Miami have had by far the fewest save ops. then the Phillies, Mets, Padres and Blue Jays. All these teams are sub .500.


This^. There are always exceptions like the one fnk pointed out but closers on good times are more valuable as a general rule. If the closer is on a bad team, the stars have to align just right for the closer to get a decent number of saves,,,,especially in H2H closers on bad teams can kill your team in terms of saves.

This general rule isn't very strongly supported. It turns out there are some good analytic studies of the correlation of winning percentage (of teams) to saves produced. Below are some links, but here are a couple of quick take-aways:
In other words, don't over think things. Go after the most skilled closers and don't worry too much about how good their team is. If you prefer anecdotal evidence, recall that Hoffman racked up lots of saves with some pretty lousy SD teams.

Here are some nice articles from Fangraphs if you want to see the data:



WRONG. Its all bs, and we've all seen it before. This is where stats go wrong sometimes. 18.3%? lol. In h2h leagues closers on bad teams are terrible. If they lose you saves 4 weeks in a row then win you one week with 3 saves is that good? Statswise its fine but you lose saves for 3 weeks right? Also the articles are general and im not really thinking about teams that are near the .500 mark.
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