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Ender wrote:1. Positional scarcity - This is one of the bigger shams out there. The generic ranking of most to least scarce positions matches almost exactly with the most to least injured positions. You are spending extra to get lesser production that is higher risk. Positional scarcity should really be defined by at what point in the draft you feel terrible with all of the options left. You don't draft someone in the 1st round because the position is scarce, you draft someone in the 10th+ round because it is scarce. This is especially true for Cs. Taking a C in the first 3 rounds or so is just a pure downside move.
7. Leagues are won in the draft. I'm a firm believer that leagues can only be lost in the draft. High risk picks are just random noise, they are a way of saying I don't think I can win without hitting a HR in the draft. You want to go heavy reliability early which puts you in striking distance no matter what barring horrific injuries. Then you want high upside guys in the later rounds with the ability to cut bait on the misses and take your chances with the FA you like best.
but anybody that drafted Mike Trout last season was about 90% of the way towards winning a league
Ender wrote:4. Early pitchers are a suckers play, period. You only get at most 4 stats, you take on a lot more injury risk, the actual stats themselves are a lot less reliable and with innings limits in roto you basically are working with 5 rate stats of which a good RP beats a good SP in 4 of 5.
Izenhart wrote:To me, there is no difference between drafting Prince Fielder or Clayton Kershaw in round 1. They are both elite 4 category players and have roughly the same value at an auction (IMO). I also look at it like I'm starting 10 hitters and 8 pitchers, 3 of which will be relievers, so I'm getting about 7.5 starters worth of innings (when all is said and done), so an elite pitcher makes up for more of your pitching totals and roto points than an elite hitter (Kershaw VS Fielder). The real argument against it is pitching is deeper and good pitchers can be found even at the end of a draft. That is no excuse to downgrade the top tier though.
Injury risk is on a player by player basis. Typically young pitchers rack up K's before their arm wears down, so the risk is not knowing how injury prone a guy is if he is young. I also disagree that early round pitchers are less reliable than hitters. Last year round 1 picks of Kemp, Votto, Upton, Longoria, Pujols, Bautista, Adrian Gonzalez, Tulo and Ellsbury all performed under what was expected of them while the top two pitchers Verlander and Kershaw did very well.
This year I trust about 6 hitters in round one and I wouldn't be shocked to see 2 or 3 of them fall flat. I feel safer with a big arm this year than in the past.
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