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In my opinion, looking at "strength index" or comparing a player's stats to those of the median player at each position (as Izenhart has done) does much more harm than good when determining value. There's no reason to bump a player's value due to how much better he is compared to those directly below him. This fallacy has been around for a long time, though, and will continue to be an area to be exploited on draft day.
And despite showing that Trout is better based on RotoChamp's projections (172 to 140), and still better even when diminishing Trout's RotoChamps projections and leaving Cano's the same (148 to 140), you still say you'd take Cano over Trout. That's fine, but you don't provide any reasoning. Aside from comparing him to Jacoby Ellsbury. I don't see the correlation between a powerful rookie that hit a HR every 18.6 AB in his rookie season to an established slap hitting skinny veteran that dislocated his shoulder a year after he put up a HR every 20.6 AB in his 4th MLB season
Skin Blues wrote:dealing with position scarcity, to the volatility of a young player's performance, to the overpricing that happens in auction leagues.
I would counter that with: why is it important to target positions with a bigger drop off? If the value is otherwise a wash then sure, pick a reason why to choose one guy or another. But the split in this case wasn't even close; it was 172 to 140 by your own (or Tango's) calculation. And 148 to 140 when you chopped off some of Trout's stats. The reliability of Trout repeating last year's monster season - or even coming close to it - is another concern. And a valid one. But lets just focus on one thing at a time. Is there any evidence that this talent drop off affects a player's value? What is the theory behind it?
The reliability of Trout repeating last year's monster season - or even coming close to it - is another concern. And a valid one.
There's also the fallacy that "I can get SB late, so I will discount them early on". This is a very questionable theory; the guys you're referring to are one dimensional and will drag you down in 3-4 other categories. That's why they're available so late. Just like Carlos Pena or Mark Reynolds. Nobody would say "I'm not gonna draft Miggy because I can get Carlos Pena late in the draft".
americanleagueroto wrote:If you convert projections for both Trout and Cano into auction dollar figures (which is the basis of my article) Trouts converted auction price is already going to start off higher than Cano's for good reason, his projected stat line is more valuable all things being even. Then you add on the inflation that a player with Trouts reputation is going to bring (think about the $50 Albert Pujols of previous years etc) and you're already upside down on your investment. Again, in mixers, fine, in AL only, hold on now.
americanleagueroto wrote:Back to the talent drop off at certain positions, if you're going to pay big money (debatable as to how smart that is already in ONLY leagues) I'd rather pay that money where a player is going to earn substainally better stats than everyone elses 2B.
americanleagueroto wrote:I don't target the Trouts (5 tool) or Bourns of the world (3 tool) due to the "inflated" cost of SB's with these players
americanleagueroto wrote:If I've already met my targets in R, RBI, HR and BA with MI, and an OF spot or two to fill (a position known for players who can swipe bags and maintain a decent BA) I'm not dragging a catergory down at all.
americanleagueroto wrote:Waiting on power to get guys like Pena and Reynolds is a completely different story and does hurt you in other areas, but that's a discussion for another time.
americanleagueroto wrote:This is fun though! Is it baseball season yet?
americanleagueroto wrote:To believe that a player that brings you 25-30 SB, with a .270-.290 BA, will also bring you NEGATIVE counting stats, is foolish. I get that you're not truely believing it's a negative number, but you're completely missing the point, and are stuck in a one track mind.
americanleagueroto wrote:the fact you continue to call proven ways of playin the game, fallacy, shows your limited, one size fits all approach to fantasy sports. If it works for you that's awesome, but when one wheel slips I feel sorry that you must abandon the team because options 2, 3 & 4 are all fallacy in your fantasy background.
americanleagueroto wrote:I appreciate the discussion, best of luck this season.
I am high on Ruggiano and low on some others, I expect my list to differ from the norm. I want it to. I'll be one of few people who value Justin Upton over McCutchen. But I'm not looking for last year's stats, I'm trying to guess what next years stats will be. I think Upton has all the tools McCutchen has and hits in a better lineup. One is coming off a down year and I think he will pick it up, while I think I gave McCutchen a .284 BA projection (lower than most) with lower R/RBI totals.
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