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Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Ender » Wed May 01, 2013 12:37 pm

I think the signs have been there for 2 seasons now that he is in a soft decline


Two years ago was his best year from a peripheral standpoint. Last year was one bad month and then he posted stats just like 2011. I mean you can be worried about his peripherals this year and that makes complete sense to me but there is no way he was in soft decline for the past 2 seasons. 2011 was everything you like about a young pitcher, pretty much improved in every single area. More groundballs, more popups, fewer walks, more swinging strikes, less contact, more swings on out of zone pitches etc.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Izenhart » Wed May 01, 2013 12:51 pm

2011 was his best year from a fantasy standpoint, but from 2010 to 2011 he K rate per batter dropped slightly, he gave up 12 home runs in 2010, then 26 in 2011, yet his ERA dropped. Last year his walk total rose to over 80 and his K/BB dropped from 3.5 to 2.5. His velocity has fallen each year since 2010.

The funny thing about this year (I know its a very small sample size but) his BB/9 has improved, but his K/9 has taken a nosedive, so a much higher % of batters are putting his pitches into play, yet only 2 home runs allowed (A pace of 11-12) so that 5.9% HR/FB will rise. His BABIP isn't even that bad this year (.328 compared to a .297 career) but he's not fooling anyone right now and looks as hittable as ever. Until he shows some sign of being able to put the baseball past hitters his ERA will easily end up over 4 this year.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Ender » Thu May 02, 2013 10:11 am

2011 was his best year from a fantasy standpoint, but from 2010 to 2011 he K rate per batter dropped slightly, he gave up 12 home runs in 2010, then 26 in 2011, yet his ERA dropped. Last year his walk total rose to over 80 and his K/BB dropped from 3.5 to 2.5. His velocity has fallen each year since 2010.


Ok well we just look at pitchers completely differentlyt hen. His K rate drop was almost not noticeable in 2011, I'm guessing you are looking at K/9 which isn't very useful, his K/9 got much worse because he put fewer runners on. HR/FB% is the least reliable of all pitcher stats, his GB% improved so he got better. 2011 he was a better pitcher in every way than he was 2008-2010. His velocity was at its highest in 2011 so part of this isn't even true and in 2012 it was down in April and right back to normal the rest of the season. His average his last game was over 91 as well. 2012 was a mirror image of 2011 outside of 2 bad starts in early April both against the Cardinals, that is the only real difference between the two years.

The 2013 samples are worthless so far so can't speak to trying to make much out of those. In 2011 his K/9 was all of 5.7 in April too and that was his best season, in 2008 it was 5.7 in April and 6.0 in May. He just doesn't like pitching in the cold.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby bigh0rt » Tue May 07, 2013 9:23 pm

garf112 wrote:So, what do we think now???

I think the Mets have 3 outs to score a Run before I lose my mind... :-C
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Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby JMR162; » Tue May 07, 2013 9:41 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
garf112 wrote:So, what do we think now???

I think the Mets have 3 outs to score a Run before I lose my mind... :-C

Stinkin mets
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Skin Blues » Tue May 07, 2013 9:49 pm

Anybody listen to the Hawk Harrelson feed of the game? How many times did he point out that Matt Harvey doesn't have "the will to win"?
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Ender » Tue May 07, 2013 10:41 pm

I still want to see him face a real offense, yet again he faces one of the bottom 3 offenses in the league. He now has 7 starts and all 7 are against bottom 10 offenses and 6 of 7 were in pitchers parks. At the time of each start I think all but 1 team was in the bottom 5 in runs scored at the time.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Skin Blues » Tue May 07, 2013 11:02 pm

^ That's how Kris Medlen managed his hot September. Had a 2.82 SIERA last season and has a 4.42 this season.

I think Matt Harvey is quite a bit better than Medlen, though. He won't keep up these insane ratios, but I have no little doubt he'll be elite all season.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby J35J » Tue May 07, 2013 11:04 pm

Skin Blues wrote:^ That's how Kris Medlen managed his hot September. Had a 2.82 SIERA last season and has a 4.42 this season.

I think Matt Harvey is quite a bit better than Medlen, though. He won't keep up these insane ratios, but I have no little doubt he'll be elite all season.


Yup, his stuff is just so good. He may be a bit wild at times, especially against the better offenses, but his good outings will far outweigh his rough outings and he'll have a really good year overall.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby GiantsFan14 » Tue May 07, 2013 11:21 pm

Sell high.
Image
25
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