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Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby ensanimal » Tue Apr 30, 2013 10:34 pm

I just got Holliday for him so his arm can now fall off, or he can start playing like a Met, or whatever will make me not regret this.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby mac-unit » Tue Apr 30, 2013 11:08 pm

Dynasty league or not. His value is never going to be higher than it is now. Sell if you can get a good deal.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Ender » Tue Apr 30, 2013 11:10 pm

Yeah I think it is an easy sell if you can get back someone like Gallardo or Cain or something for him and that seems to be where people value him. Secure your value now, don't get greedy and hope he keeps it up, get the sure thing.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby J35J » Wed May 01, 2013 9:17 am

Ender wrote:Yeah I think it is an easy sell if you can get back someone like Gallardo or Cain or something for him and that seems to be where people value him. Secure your value now, don't get greedy and hope he keeps it up, get the sure thing.


I don't know...unless the Mets just ruin Harvey, I'd take him over Gallardo in any format.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Ender » Wed May 01, 2013 9:22 am

J35J wrote:
Ender wrote:Yeah I think it is an easy sell if you can get back someone like Gallardo or Cain or something for him and that seems to be where people value him. Secure your value now, don't get greedy and hope he keeps it up, get the sure thing.


I don't know...unless the Mets just ruin Harvey, I'd take him over Gallardo in any format.


Just hard for me to take someone with under 200 IP over someone with over 900 IP with over K/IP and a solid ERA who consistently wins 14+ games and if you sit him vs the Cardinals his career ERA is right around 3.30. Maybe if Harvey pitched on a better team I could do it but I'll pretty confidently make this trade. As someone who owns Gallardo I would insta decline an offer of Harvey straight up for him.

I mean I know it can be hard pulling the strings on a struggling guy in a trade for a hot guy. Cain and Gallardo both look like it just might not be their year but most of the time they just turn it around and are fine. Cain will stop giving up HRs and Gallardo will start hitting that outside corner and not falling behind guys. As the book gets out on Harvey and some fatigue gets into his arm and he faces some real offenses instead of the easiest schedule of any pitcher his stats will come crashing back down to earth. 2014 I very well may be trusting Harvey over more established guys but doing it in 2013 is just adding unnecessary risk to the team. I'm a very strong believer in solidifying your value if you can. You got Harvey relatively cheap, if you can turn him into a 6th round pitcher you do it and if he keeps it up all year it isn't going to be a huge loss no matter what. The Mets aren't going to be a good team which will limit his wins and Harvey probably won't pitch 200 innings which will limit his counting stats.

There are 10 teams in baseball averaging 4 R/G or less. Harvey has pitched against those bottom 10 teams all 6 games. 5 of the 6 games have been in pitchers parks as well. He is a good pitcher but everything has lined up for him so far as well, he won't keep this up.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Izenhart » Wed May 01, 2013 10:07 am

I had Harvey ranked 50 spots ahead of Gallardo before the season started. (79OA/129OA) Which is pretty much a flop of where their actual MDPs were. So someone like me wouldn't blink twice to decline your Gallardo for my Harvey. Harvey will struggle at times sure, but I think he beats Gallardo in at least 3 of the 4 SP cats, maybe even all 4. It's more of me not being a Gallardo fanboy than anything else though.

My preseason predictions

Gallardo 3.75 / 1.28, 13 W, 180K (195IP)
Harvey 3.40 / 1.25, 13 W, 180K (180IP)
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Ender » Wed May 01, 2013 10:30 am

Izenhart wrote:I had Harvey ranked 50 spots ahead of Gallardo before the season started. (79OA/129OA) Which is pretty much a flop of where their actual MDPs were. So someone like me wouldn't blink twice to decline your Gallardo for my Harvey. Harvey will struggle at times sure, but I think he beats Gallardo in at least 3 of the 4 SP cats, maybe even all 4. It's more of me not being a Gallardo fanboy than anything else though.

My preseason predictions

Gallardo 3.75 / 1.28, 13 W, 180K (195IP)
Harvey 3.40 / 1.25, 13 W, 180K (180IP)



If those numbers end up being accurate then Gallardo would have been much more valuable the rest of the season~. So if you projected Gallardo to have the worst season of his career I can understand your point. Most people probably aren't comfortable projecting someone to have their worst season ever at age 27. Lowest K of any full time season, lowest W total of any season. ERA above his career average etc.

Your Harvey line plus 2 wins or so is probably spot on for a Gallardo projection if you sit him vs the Cardinals, it would be a little worse than his career numbers against the rest of the league.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby kab21 » Wed May 01, 2013 10:48 am

The only problem I have with the Gallardo optimism is that last year he had normal K and BB numbers despite his awful ERA in April. This year he can't K anyone and he isn't even getting swinging strikes (down for a 2nd straight year). Not surprisingly his velocity is down for a 2nd straight year. That trifecta (K rate, swstr% and velocity) are scary indicators that he might not turn it around this year. Cain is a different story.

Just to stay on topic - Harvey is awesome but there will be some bumps in the road this road. I'm really not impressed with 121 pitches at all.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Ender » Wed May 01, 2013 10:57 am

Both of them are having location problems. Gallardo is missing with his offspeed stuff out of the zone so people are sitting fastball. Cain is missing with his offspeed stuff up in the zone and people are putting the balls over the fence. People really should avoid looking at velocity numbers in April, they are meaningless. It is cold, pitchers velocity is generally down in the cold. Every single pitcher on the Brewers has an average velocity lower than last year except Lohse and almost all of them are down at least 1 MPH. I just looked at every single one of their fangraphs pages.

Seriously though early season velocity is meaningless unless there is some huge drop in it, like 50% of the pitchers in baseball are down in velocity from last year.
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Re: Matt Harvey: Legit Ace?

Postby Izenhart » Wed May 01, 2013 12:20 pm

Ender wrote:If those numbers end up being accurate then Gallardo would have been much more valuable the rest of the season~. So if you projected Gallardo to have the worst season of his career I can understand your point. Most people probably aren't comfortable projecting someone to have their worst season ever at age 27. Lowest K of any full time season, lowest W total of any season. ERA above his career average etc.


This is true, however based on how April has played out and what kab just said about Gallardo's declining periphials, I expect his numbers to be worse now. I think the signs have been there for 2 seasons now that he is in a soft decline, and with pitching it's always hard to tell when that line is crossed when they go from good to getting hammered. The bottom line is Harvey has better stuff and a higher ceiling, and he has been better out of the gate. I think the chances he outpitches Gallardo are better than Gallardo outpitching him.
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