bigh0rt wrote:Why are people pretending that 2011 didn't happen for Trout, and that he couldn't struggle similarly next season? Do we not think that given an entire off-season for teams to plan on how to pitch him, etc. that he's really incapable of performing lower than his worst month in what has a legitimate chance of being his best season? Don't get me wrong, dude could continue blowing the doors off, certainly. But this notion that he's above the possibility of severely, severely dropping off next season is simply puzzling to me. Despite the likelihood of an elevated BABIP, .383 is absurd. Even if it drops to .350, which is still going to be very high, you're talking about a pretty considerable hit across the board, not just to his AVG. I imagine he's going to bat closer to .280 than .300 next season, and that's not even taking into account that people seem to be thinking that .320 should be the expectation. I'd be drafting him wherever you were drafting Jacoby Ellsbury in 2010, following his 2009 season, because that, plus 10 HR, and minus 15 SB is where I imagine Trout will settle into. Yes, the 10 HR are considerable, but honestly I'm not even convinced he gets them quite yet, and I don't see him approaching 70 SB or near it.