It's not that he can't, it's that it's unlikely. He would be an exception to the rule, even as a speedy guy. And that's what it's going to take for him to prove productive, IMO.SpecialFNK wrote:also. why could he not maintain .350+ BABIP in the majors? doesn't speed help with higher BABIP?
Austin Jackson has probably been the ultimate exception to the rule. I don't think there's a player I would compare to him, because he's shown you what can happen when you luck your way to a .400 BABIP (2009), and also what happens when the BABIP is a more reasonable figure like .340 (2010), and then again when it is .400 (2012). Marte is similar in this way in as I said, it looks like he'll require a ridiculously high BABIP that you can neither predict, expect, nor bank on to show any productivity. Jackson is a guy I would never, ever expect to bat .300, because he needs a .400 BABIP to do so, and likely so does Marte. Keep also in mind that Jackson has a superior batting eye compared to Marte, which you can't just simply gloss over.
As J3 said, anything can happen with prospects, but Marte has yet to display anything that really should make anybody get excited about him. At all. Ever.