Most Accurate MLB Experts Past 4 Years
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kab21 wrote:The problem with WAR is that you need a lot more data to get a significant sample. I read 3 yrs somewhere and we're talking about 1/2 a season of stats so far. I also think defense is weighted too highly. I know they have mathematical basis for their formulas but I disagree with the value of awful hitters that are posting 15+ UZR/150 rates. An example is Joe Crede in 2009 (I'm a Twins fan). He hit .225/.289/.414/.703 in 90 games and put up a 1.8 WAR. Over a season that's a 3.5 WAR player that was an awful hitter. I'm sorry but he was awful regardless of his great defense.
bayside wrote:kab21 wrote:The problem with WAR is that you need a lot more data to get a significant sample. I read 3 yrs somewhere and we're talking about 1/2 a season of stats so far. I also think defense is weighted too highly. I know they have mathematical basis for their formulas but I disagree with the value of awful hitters that are posting 15+ UZR/150 rates. An example is Joe Crede in 2009 (I'm a Twins fan). He hit .225/.289/.414/.703 in 90 games and put up a 1.8 WAR. Over a season that's a 3.5 WAR player that was an awful hitter. I'm sorry but he was awful regardless of his great defense.
3 years is only for defensive metrics (and even then its an unknown how accurately defenses are measured).
the offensive component of WAR is almost identical for all systems and is based on runs created. it is pretty accurate even on a game by game basis. the formula is pretty well worked out
bayside wrote:I wouldnt say pitching WAR is completely worthless...
Its a decent way to compare pitchers vs other pitchers to see how they stack up against each other. The fact that its based on FIP is what makes it so shaky.
but it definitely isnt a great idea to use WAR to compare batters to hitters
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