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Urban Cohorts wrote:This is a tough one.
Lincecum has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball when runners aren't on base. When runners get on base (or worse, scoring position) he just can't seem to locate his pitches. On the plus side, Lince has a K/9 of 9.87- his best since his Cy Young season in 2009. He has a BABIP that should go down a small notch. And he also has a horrible 60.3% strand rate, which HAS to go back up towards the 75% average. So these things tell me that he is still a good pitcher but suffering some bad luck (his FIP is 3.78, not bad). But Tim's BB/9 is also the highest its been (much higher with runners on base) and he is clearly suffering some kind of mental block when runners reach base.
All that said, I think Lincecum still has the stuff to be able to bound back. He can still get batters out (as evidenced by his K rate) but he needs to make an adjustment when runners are on. If he does, the old Lince is back.
Hanson is OK. Compared to his previous three seasons, he has a lower K/9, higher BB/9, and is giving up more HRs. He has been lucky as far as his BABIP and strand rate go. His FIP is 4.77. I'd expect he stays at the level he is on, possibly gets a tad worse.
IF you aren't in the top 2-3 teams (or close to it), I would make the trade for Lincecum. If he bounces back he will be GOLD come H2H playoff time too (he gets to pitch in all those large NL West parks, other than Coors).
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